MegaMillions is ready to be won againPrev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

jjtheprince

United States
Member #106,129
February 13, 2011
806 Posts
Offline

Jan 7, 2015, 7:24 pm

Why do you all think no one has won yet?

Sales down maybe? Could players be turning up their noses to $200 mil jackpots now?
Drenick1

USA
United States
Member #152,792
February 25, 2014
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 1:52 pm

Did anyone else notice that when the annuity value went up to $221 million from $206 million that the cash value rose $13.7million thus making the additional cash payout 91% of the annuity.

The previous jackpot was $206 million with a cash value of $131.1 million.
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
17,821 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 2:13 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Drenick1 on Jan 8, 2015
Did anyone else notice that when the annuity value went up to $221 million from $206 million that the cash value rose $13.7million thus making the additional cash payout 91% of the annuity.

The previous jackpot was $206 million with a cash value of $131.1 million.

Interesting. I don't usually do the math between the cash and annuity. I know it fluctuates depending on interest rates. I just check the amount of the cash, subtract the fed tax, and calculate how much money I can spend each year for the next 25 years if I win.

Good eye.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 2:38 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Drenick1 on Jan 8, 2015
Did anyone else notice that when the annuity value went up to $221 million from $206 million that the cash value rose $13.7million thus making the additional cash payout 91% of the annuity.

The previous jackpot was $206 million with a cash value of $131.1 million.

Have to look at the pool as a whole:

134.9/206 ≈ 65.49% (1.53)

144.8/221 ≈ 65.52% (1.53)

Note that the actual cash was $134.9 million for Tuesday's drawing. Don't forget the advertised jackpots are only estimates and based on sales projections.

They use the same interest factor for the next jackpot as the current one, and they don't always disclose the actual cash in the prize pool, which is why it seems like you get less (more) annuity for the cash. So if they used X for this jackpot then they will use X for the next one. It makes sense because they have no way of knowing what the actual interest rate factor will be for that next drawing. Then the business day following the draw they will adjust it up or down. This is why the jackpot could be an estimated $500 million annuity on Friday but different on Monday when it is actually claimed (the CVO doesn't change however).

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Drenick1

USA
United States
Member #152,792
February 25, 2014
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 9:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jan 8, 2015
Have to look at the pool as a whole:

134.9/206 ≈ 65.49% (1.53)

144.8/221 ≈ 65.52% (1.53)

Note that the actual cash was $134.9 million for Tuesday's drawing. Don't forget the advertised jackpots are only estimates and based on sales projections.

They use the same interest factor for the next jackpot as the current one, and they don't always disclose the actual cash in the prize pool, which is why it seems like you get less (more) annuity for the cash. So if they used X for this jackpot then they will use X for the next one. It makes sense because they have no way of knowing what the actual interest rate factor will be for that next drawing. Then the business day following the draw they will adjust it up or down. This is why the jackpot could be an estimated $500 million annuity on Friday but different on Monday when it is actually claimed (the CVO doesn't change however).

Not sure where you got the $134.9 million cash value figure because according to USA Mega it states the cash value at $131.1 million.

https://www.usamega.com/mega-millions-jackpot.asp?d=1/6/2015

Using the numbers I got from USA Mega, the cash value increased $13.7 million while the annuity value went up $15 million. Don't get me wrong as I am happy to see an increase in the cash value but I am a little confused at why it jumped over 91% of the annuity increase.
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 10:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Drenick1 on Jan 8, 2015
Not sure where you got the $134.9 million cash value figure because according to USA Mega it states the cash value at $131.1 million.

https://www.usamega.com/mega-millions-jackpot.asp?d=1/6/2015

Using the numbers I got from USA Mega, the cash value increased $13.7 million while the annuity value went up $15 million. Don't get me wrong as I am happy to see an increase in the cash value but I am a little confused at why it jumped over 91% of the annuity increase.

I got the $134.9 million from MUSL, which is as official as it gets. The CVO wasn't updated because the jackpot wasn't hit. For instance, the actual cash jackpot for 01/02 was $119.6 million, but $119.1 million was advertised. For 12/30, it was $109.1 million, but $108.4 million was advertised.

As mentioned, the prizes posted are only estimates. Anytime there is a discrepancy it basically means they haven't updated the advertised to the actual cash. They normally won't do that either, unless there is a significant jump or deficit in sales or the prize is actually hit.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
Offline

Jan 8, 2015, 10:48 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jan 8, 2015
I got the $134.9 million from MUSL, which is as official as it gets. The CVO wasn't updated because the jackpot wasn't hit. For instance, the actual cash jackpot for 01/02 was $119.6 million, but $119.1 million was advertised. For 12/30, it was $109.1 million, but $108.4 million was advertised.

As mentioned, the prizes posted are only estimates. Anytime there is a discrepancy it basically means they haven't updated the advertised to the actual cash. They normally won't do that either, unless there is a significant jump or deficit in sales or the prize is actually hit.

I should also mention the "official" cash I am quoting is typically a rounded-down value for simplicity, just because there are different vendor systems reporting and they don't always submit initial sales properly. Also, since MM is technically operated by the MM group and not MUSL, they have to go on their own estimates. For example, MUSL quotes the cash for the 11/04 winner at $194.4 million (advertised $194.1 million) but the real value was $197,456,087 according to NY Lottery.

Now for Powerball, which is exclusively MUSL, their numbers are perfect. For the 11/29 drawing, they quote around $56,818,181.82 which is the actual. When I say "quote" I mean the value retrieved if I look up the draw in their database. This is posted as soon as the final results are received.

In both games it also gets a little complicated because they have reserve pools which may add to or take away from the final prize. I find it easier to use the values they provide in estimation documents and then adjust later. I do adjust them though, because otherwise the interest factors won't match up and, as we saw, a discrepancy pops up. For most players this really doesn't matter because the actual prize isn't that far off from the advertised one, except during record draws.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
noise-gate

* In hot pursuit of $ *

White Shores- California
United States
Member #136,471
December 12, 2012
7,040 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 1:24 am

MM is going to be won Tomorrow..... By someone in the United States, not Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands.That should come as a relief people!

* Voice of Reason *

* People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.
hearsetrax

United States
Member #52,343
May 21, 2007
3,797 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 11:30 am

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jan 9, 2015
MM is going to be won Tomorrow..... By someone in the United States, not Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands.That should come as a relief people!

please let it be one of my "good friends" here at the LP

thank you
maringoman

Massachusetts
United States
Member #37,432
April 14, 2006
2,747 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 11:38 am

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jan 9, 2015
MM is going to be won Tomorrow..... By someone in the United States, not Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands.That should come as a relief people!

You don't want Virgin Islands Americans to win? Why?

That money's gone fo ever
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 1:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by maringoman on Jan 9, 2015
You don't want Virgin Islands Americans to win? Why?

What he wants doesn't matter, what will be will be. Congratulation to the winners who ever they are.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,777 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 3:05 pm

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jan 9, 2015
MM is going to be won Tomorrow..... By someone in the United States, not Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands.That should come as a relief people!

Whether it's somebody from the US or Mars that wins, the jackpot indicates that MM is only expecting to sell about 31 million tickets, so there's less than a 12% chance it's going to happen tonight.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 4:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 9, 2015
Whether it's somebody from the US or Mars that wins, the jackpot indicates that MM is only expecting to sell about 31 million tickets, so there's less than a 12% chance it's going to happen tonight.

For those who know what the winning pattern looks like 12% is more than enough since they will only be considering 3% of the possible combinations.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
jjtheprince

United States
Member #106,129
February 13, 2011
806 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 4:54 pm

There's no way anyone will win tonight. Everyone playing now has the curse of "Can't win"

Are you ready to see a jackpot run into the multiple billions of dollars?
hearsetrax

United States
Member #52,343
May 21, 2007
3,797 Posts
Offline

Jan 9, 2015, 5:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by jjtheprince on Jan 9, 2015
There's no way anyone will win tonight. Everyone playing now has the curse of "Can't win"

Are you ready to see a jackpot run into the multiple billions of dollars?

time will spin a most curious yarn this evening

best of luck to those playing

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

MegaMillions is ready to be won againPrev TopicNext Topic

MegaMillions is ready to be won againPrev Topic Next Topic