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Backtesting ToolsPrev TopicNext Topic
Top 5 Backtesting Tools
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"This chart in your post (and couple of others) beg to differ with your statement you drop the number after it hits. Look carefully at 2021-08-09 and 2021-08-10 where you claim a win with 050. If you dropped 050 after it won on 2021-08-09 you couldn't win with it on the 10th, unless, of course, you're only including it to show the possibilities....which are like dog's daydreams. If it didn't happen its a little misleading to include it. Right?" Answer: Gary, you know it happened because you see the data. You can easily confirm. I have a version that includes the number and excludes it. How is it misleading when the data can't be argued? Is that really the argument? Excluding or including a number that repeated. Here's the gist: My Pick 3 system is giving you 27 numbers to choose from (after 3 consecutive drawings), would you or would you not take the bet? I think most would. Furthermore, show me any system on LP that has a better HIT rate than Consecutive Draws? Remember, I don't espouse playing everyday. Only when the consecutive draws happens.
Further down the chart we see two hits on 2021-08-12 that couldn't have happened if you weren't playing multiple draws the same day. Two wins in the same day is entirely possible in Florida where they have Midday and Evening Draws. But it comes at the price of paying twice....in the minimum case $27 times 2 = $54. Answer: No, Gary. That's NOT the minimum. You're assuming folks will bet $27. For a box play, you can spend .5. The real math is: $13.5 for midday which would have netted you $80 for a box play (in this example), and $13 (after removing the number that recently won) for evening, which would have netted you another $80. That means: for $26.5 for a (simple box play) you would have netted $160. I'd take that bet. Minimum I could have won is $40.
Either way, $54 spent means a $40 box win won't help you. Answer: This is false. $26.5 (not $54) will net you $40. ==> Therefore, the only time this system is worth a dime is winning straights and doubles. Straight and doubles have made fools of all of us at one time or another. How many permutations of a single do you have to play to be guaranteed of hitting straight? And how many for a double? (6 for singles, 3 for doubles for those wondering) Answer: False. This system is also great for singles. I have corrected your statement: $27 will net you $40. That's positive ROI.[Start generalization based on a faulty premise]
Suddenly that $27 minimum jumps 3 to 6 times per draw! 3 X $27 = $81 per draw. And two draws a day (in Florida) brings that to $162 a day spent.
If you don't hit by the third consecutive draw, you're throwing your money down the drain on a hope, a wing, and a prayer.
I don't need to open a single program to do some quick numbers.
To keep it simple in Texas $27 a draw, we have 4 daily draws, 4 times $27 = $108 a day playing lottery.
$108 times 27 days = $2916 a month on lottery.
$2916 times 12 months = $34,992 a year on lottery.
It may work for a very few dedicated souls willing to neglect any number of bills and creature comforts (say food) they desire if......
1) you have enough of them playing varied sets
2) in various states
but soon enough, perhaps when their pockets are dry, they'll realize it was all fools gold, a dream built on an idea of possibilities, ignoring reality; another Steve Player, if you will.
I'll put keyboard and mouse on my "get it" list. Meanwhile I have to figure out what to do with this MP3 player my wonderful kids sent me. The directions for that make more sense than what I'm seeing here.[End generalization based on a faulty premise]
Answer: Gary, I sincerely appreciate the effort. But you have to agree your $27 statement throws off the affordability of this data set. Can you admit that?
I don't consider your words to be an attack. You are seeking clarity. Please don't construe my words as an attack either. You are respected here. I haven't studied Texas Pick 3, but I would gather similar consecutive draws are also in play.
The system will start emailing you when it see 3 consecutive draws in games Pick 2 thru Pick 5. I created this tool a month ago, so It's not 'optimized'. Your feedback helps me.
-Will
Message* "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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If his data creates a set and wins in the first outing he's ahead. Either $27 spent - $40 won = $13 bucks ROI or $27 spent - $290 won = $263 bucks str8/box in profit total. Two scenarios i listed.
True/False: Does 27 numbers played as box for midday/evening give you +ROI if 1 of the numbers hit? Answer: True
How accurate is the tool in prediction with least amount of attempts with your hard earned money. This we need to know it seems. If i personal have bad accuracy i have no will to wager on my personal tool, it just makes sense or i would lose in the long run because of none repeatability. This is not a knock on the idea because it is similar to ideas i have seen on lp floating around and it can be a great data tool.
It looks as if it just needs refining and smaller play lists. what will happen to the accuracy of the data tool if the play list is reduced smaller does it make it better or worse with accuracy anyone know? Will, any idea about this? Answer: Great question! Of course it makes it better, and I'm not just saying that. What the code doesn't take into account are draws that are not consecutive. For example if the consecutive draws started on the 18th, the code won't display previous draws that occurred on the 7th and 11th and 15th, because these dates are not consecutive. If you exclude those you can reduce your list even more.
-Will
"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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Ah, well. After reading the 30 page thread you started in April and seeing the money question come up over and over and over and over.......and over, and there being no true, real, or finite dollar value given, I've decided you're not going to answer. If you did you wouldn't have 300 subscribers and 25 paying clients.
Seeing Stack and B-216, adobea and cottoneyedjoe, and PickThreeExpert question the hows and whats, and offer some insight which you try to refute by posting some arrow inscribed charts while repeating the same rhetoric, it seems you don't have answers. And your most valuable defense is to deflect any meaningful discussion by questioning the asker about something that has no place in the discussion or calling out a spelling mistake.
Winsum had some positive comments on the clean programming, nice interface and fast data acquisition. What he didn't say is he won using it. That's pretty telling when you consider how long he has been here and how many spreadsheets he's contributed to Lottery Post.
And this could have been settled months ago by you simply going to the predictions board and posting your predictions. Everyone would see your wins and how much you spent and anyone who had a question about either could be told, "It on the predictions board."
You didn't do. And you have no intention of doing it. Water over the dam. It is what it is.
As I see it, "If the money don't hit, its time to quit."
In this case, "The money don't fit, so its time to quit."
If you haven't answered questions by now, you're not going too. Those answers wouldn't be in your favor anyway. And seems like enough people have already shown that, I don't need to waste my time going over the same failures we all know exists.
Good Luck!I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain. -
Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Sep 3, 2021
Ah, well. After reading the 30 page thread you started in April and seeing the money question come up over and over and over and over.......and over, and there being no true, real, or finite dollar value given, I've decided you're not going to answer. If you did you wouldn't have 300 subscribers and 25 paying clients.
Seeing Stack and B-216, adobea and cottoneyedjoe, and PickThreeExpert question the hows and whats, and offer some insight which you try to refute by posting some arrow inscribed charts while repeating the same rhetoric, it seems you don't have answers. And your most valuable defense is to deflect any meaningful discussion by questioning the asker about something that has no place in the discussion or calling out a spelling mistake.
Winsum had some positive comments on the clean programming, nice interface and fast data acquisition. What he didn't say is he won using it. That's pretty telling when you consider how long he has been here and how many spreadsheets he's contributed to Lottery Post.
And this could have been settled months ago by you simply going to the predictions board and posting your predictions. Everyone would see your wins and how much you spent and anyone who had a question about either could be told, "It on the predictions board."
You didn't do. And you have no intention of doing it. Water over the dam. It is what it is.
As I see it, "If the money don't hit, its time to quit."
In this case, "The money don't fit, so its time to quit."
If you haven't answered questions by now, you're not going too. Those answers wouldn't be in your favor anyway. And seems like enough people have already shown that, I don't need to waste my time going over the same failures we all know exists.
Good Luck!Ah, well. After reading the 30 page thread you started in April and seeing the money question come up over and over and over and over.......and over, and there being no true, real, or finite dollar value given, I've decided you're not going to answer. Answer: 1st, thanks for reading my thread. 2nd, if the question is "how much it costs?", that's already been answered by several. If you did you wouldn't have 300 subscribers and 25 paying clients. Answer: 300 subscribers is bad? I can barely handle the questions from the new subscribers now. Let's be clear: the question isn't about money. The question is about value. If you think the cost of my data portal is fair, you'll pay for it. If not, you won't. Per your last post on costs/yr, I'd say value is pretty important to you.
Seeing Stack and B-216, adobea and cottoneyedjoe, and PickThreeExpert question the hows and whats, and offer some insight which you try to refute by posting some arrow inscribed charts while repeating the same rhetoric, it seems you don't have answers. Answer: Stack and B-216 are respected. You left out jimjwright, Nkkicute, sully16, and MzDuffleBaglady who are also well-respected, and rated this thread 5 stars. Stack and B-216, communicated there is no scam, so those nonsensical, aimless statements appeared to have stopped since B-216 posted. So, now that everyone knows it not a scam *Please show where someone asked me a question about "How and What" that I didn't answer. Lastly, PT is NOT respected here. Answer: If someone asks a legitimate question, I will answer it. You seem to be respected here. ==>Show me where I didn't answer a question<== Why didn't you answer any of the statements I responded to in your last post.And your most valuable defense is to deflect any meaningful discussion by questioning the asker about something that has no place in the discussion or calling out a spelling mistake. Answer: False. If you ask me a question regarding how the tool works or the website, I will answer it. If you simply want to detract because you don't understand technical concepts. What do you suppose I do? Let's be clear again: It's a data tool. It's written in Python and Flask. All it does is display facts about lottery data. Why that is hard for some to understand is beyond me. Lastly, spelling (not grammar) mistakes irk me. If you don't have the time to correct your spelling it puts on display (in my view) your education level.
Winsum had some positive comments on the clean programming, nice interface and fast data acquisition. What he didn't say is he won using it. That's pretty telling when you consider how long he has been here and how many spreadsheets he's contributed to Lottery Post. Answer: Winsum is a friend. He's also been very helpful. I trust his feedback and am incorporating some of his suggestions into RBTL. Perhaps he's won, perhaps he has not. I don't know what state he plays/bets in. It hasn't been a full month, but some have won, and some have not. It is my goal to help others win, especially guys like Winsum.
And this could have been settled months ago by you simply going to the predictions board and posting your predictions. Everyone would see your wins and how much you spent and anyone who had a question about either could be told, "It on the predictions board." Answer: I see this will never go away. Here's the rub: I am averse to posting or daily predictions. For years, I would lean on the predictions/posts of maddog (still love ya, maddog), adobea78, and countless others for wins, and I never got any. I grew frustrated. When I attempted to post, I found it a bit difficult because RBTL returns pairs. Besides I kept getting incessant requests for state-specific workouts/posts. I couldn't handle all the requests. I don't find value in daily posting. To me, it is what we've been doing for decades. We will just have to agree to disagree.
You didn't do. And you have no intention of doing it. Water over the dam. It is what it is. Answer: Here's a crazy fact: RBTL was born out of my frustration with this whole process: Daily predictions that don't pan out, countless hours of time spent studying different systems/methods that are hard to explain (most have nothing to do with math). Some of you are ardent in having me repeat a process we know is faulty: DAILY PREDICTIONS DO NOT WORK. Why do I have to keep communicating the obvious. I'm not deflecting posting questions, I communicating it doesn't work for me. Pretty sure I've said that a million times. And, the reason I have paying customers is others feel similarly.Here's what works: 1) Having real-time, accessible data 2) Finding an obvious pattern in the data [Note: If the data doesn't warrant, don't play.] 3) Playing a data set that's ROI positive, per the draws of your state. 4) Removing impediments to creating tickets (bet-slip printer) <== Show me where [1,2, and 3] doesn't describe my solution (especially Consecutive Draws). Funny: no one responded after I posted this prediction and win
-Will
"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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First, let's be really clear, down to the brass tacks clear, no nonsense clear....
I'm not going through this point by point. No sense. But....
I didn't read your thread. I read a thread based on nepotism where you asked a question. I pay attention. I noticed that hope and prayer was one vote behind your wishful outcome that your programs would be the only choice. I saw that posters preferred their own method over your intended outcome by a wide margin, and 68% of the total vote preferred something other than one of your top three intended targets. By page 10, I glanced at your responses and moved on. You weren't adding anything new, weren't answering the questions, and your arrow inscribed charts had worn out the welcomes.
What that poll reflects is the long winded answers that avoid direct replies hasn't won anyone over. And here you are with more long winded rhetoric.
I didn't bother answering your nonsense response about playing box for $27 and winning $13. While that's true, you failed to mention you now have to take $14 from your pocket to play the next night. You'll say you don't play every night. To that I'll say then how do post charts that reflect you winning, in some cases, several nights in a row? And you'll post some long winded meaningless deflection which doesn't answer the question (like you're doing now).
I don't like using the predictions board either so I can't blame you for that. But there is a simple solution. Go to the predictions board and post your predictions after the terminals close. Some, including me, have done it. Not only do you have a record of it, you also get congratulations and pats on the back.
And you have this thread going (and love to post in it) put your predictions here. Nobody is stealing your numbers after the terminals close since they can't buy a ticket.
But, giving an answer and answering a question is mutually exclusive. As many times as the issue of minimum amount you spend each night/each draw has come up, you've avoided directly answering with a dollar amount. Its a very simple question, like, "How much did that sandwich cost?" and you'd say, "$7.14 including tax," or whatever amount you paid. Rather, you spend a paragraph insisting on, "Its not about the money you spend, its about the money you win."
In truth its about the money you spend vs the money you win. If you spend more than you win, you ain't winning. You're deluding yourself to think, say, or post otherwise. And you haven't honestly answered that question directly. You hide behind the insistence of post winning tickets, which prove you win, but doesn't prove you haven't lost the 6 or 8, or 4, or 12 nights prior, ergo, the reason you've been asked to post predictions prior to the draw and not tickets after the fact. Predictions are records anyone can verify, tickets only say you won that night.
It's okay. I tried to walk away nicely, but your nepotism can't stand the thought that someone isn't buying your sales pitch. Well, you can't convince everyone. You can't fool those who understand the math.
And I'm glad you mentioned all the people in that thread. I said nothing to slight them although you want them to get that impression. "Rallying the troops" is what its called army man. Yet, I had no reason to mention them to make my point. So if you want them to be angry at me for not mentioning their name........well, you are not so smart.
Or maybe you need a group hug? And that's okay too.
Bottom line: Your solution is not a solution if the expense is greater than the return. And you haven't proved it otherwise and has been pointed out over and over and over.........
Peace
GI'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain. -
Quote: Originally posted by britwill on Sep 3, 2021
If his data creates a set and wins in the first outing he's ahead. Either $27 spent - $40 won = $13 bucks ROI or $27 spent - $290 won = $263 bucks str8/box in profit total. Two scenarios i listed.
True/False: Does 27 numbers played as box for midday/evening give you +ROI if 1 of the numbers hit? Answer: True
How accurate is the tool in prediction with least amount of attempts with your hard earned money. This we need to know it seems. If i personal have bad accuracy i have no will to wager on my personal tool, it just makes sense or i would lose in the long run because of none repeatability. This is not a knock on the idea because it is similar to ideas i have seen on lp floating around and it can be a great data tool.
It looks as if it just needs refining and smaller play lists. what will happen to the accuracy of the data tool if the play list is reduced smaller does it make it better or worse with accuracy anyone know? Will, any idea about this? Answer: Great question! Of course it makes it better, and I'm not just saying that. What the code doesn't take into account are draws that are not consecutive. For example if the consecutive draws started on the 18th, the code won't display previous draws that occurred on the 7th and 11th and 15th, because these dates are not consecutive. If you exclude those you can reduce your list even more.
-Will
You say Return On Investment. 40-27=13 or 27-40=-13, depends how you are booking that. If you use words like ROI then you must put into costs all you are doing to play, like driving to the shop and such.
So if you drive some big Hummer, type left in Afghanistan, and you drive like 10 miles to the shop, don't forget to include the payment of the Hummer, the fuel, the taxes and so on. So you come up with two budget scenarios. That's okay, but your costs don't include all costs to define a ROI. To be fair, you should have some data to calculate your personal probability by scenario. -
My backtest tool for Pick 3 is shown here. The main premise is for me to run several tests to see what the current trend is. That is reflected in the Col column followed by the X column. In this case, I can see that numbers from Col 7 have hit straight 5 times sine 07/01/2021. I can choose to now play numbers from Col 7 only, or add numbers from other Col's as well. Col's 0 and 5 are showing signs of life as well. The more Col's I play, the more I spend, so it's a bit of a risk. Look closely and you'll see there was a straight hit from Col 8 on 09/02/2021.
I have the option to work with Day, Eve, or both sets of drawings. I can also filter out certain days, dates, or months if so desired. I can choose anywhere from 3 to all drawings for my data pool. Finding that magic number is a key to my success. I selected 50 for this test.
This test run data is gathered from each successive 50 drawings, starting with:
05/13/2021 - 07/01/2021
ending with
07/16/2021 - 09/03/2021
Total bet from July 01, 2021 through Sep. 03, 2021 is $1477. Total won is $2500. Profit is $1023 over a 65 day period. Now of course this is all in hindsight, but I have used this tool to profit in the past. I think my best was 2 straight wins in one month. When I play Pick 3, I rarely, if ever, play for box wins.Why do I feel that my backtest tool is better than yours Will...because I know how it works, I know what to expect from it, I have won with it in the past, and it cost me nothing but a few hours of coding time.
What goes around comes around.
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Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Sep 4, 2021
My backtest tool for Pick 3 is shown here. The main premise is for me to run several tests to see what the current trend is. That is reflected in the Col column followed by the X column. In this case, I can see that numbers from Col 7 have hit straight 5 times sine 07/01/2021. I can choose to now play numbers from Col 7 only, or add numbers from other Col's as well. Col's 0 and 5 are showing signs of life as well. The more Col's I play, the more I spend, so it's a bit of a risk. Look closely and you'll see there was a straight hit from Col 8 on 09/02/2021.
I have the option to work with Day, Eve, or both sets of drawings. I can also filter out certain days, dates, or months if so desired. I can choose anywhere from 3 to all drawings for my data pool. Finding that magic number is a key to my success. I selected 50 for this test.
This test run data is gathered from each successive 50 drawings, starting with:
05/13/2021 - 07/01/2021
ending with
07/16/2021 - 09/03/2021
Total bet from July 01, 2021 through Sep. 03, 2021 is $1477. Total won is $2500. Profit is $1023 over a 65 day period. Now of course this is all in hindsight, but I have used this tool to profit in the past. I think my best was 2 straight wins in one month. When I play Pick 3, I rarely, if ever, play for box wins.Why do I feel that my backtest tool is better than yours Will...because I know how it works, I know what to expect from it, I have won with it in the past, and it cost me nothing but a few hours of coding time.
Love it, Mr-B! I think I will incorporate this into RBTL. Nice work! What state is this?
"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Sep 4, 2021
First, let's be really clear, down to the brass tacks clear, no nonsense clear....
I'm not going through this point by point. No sense. But....
I didn't read your thread. I read a thread based on nepotism where you asked a question. I pay attention. I noticed that hope and prayer was one vote behind your wishful outcome that your programs would be the only choice. I saw that posters preferred their own method over your intended outcome by a wide margin, and 68% of the total vote preferred something other than one of your top three intended targets. By page 10, I glanced at your responses and moved on. You weren't adding anything new, weren't answering the questions, and your arrow inscribed charts had worn out the welcomes.
What that poll reflects is the long winded answers that avoid direct replies hasn't won anyone over. And here you are with more long winded rhetoric.
I didn't bother answering your nonsense response about playing box for $27 and winning $13. While that's true, you failed to mention you now have to take $14 from your pocket to play the next night. You'll say you don't play every night. To that I'll say then how do post charts that reflect you winning, in some cases, several nights in a row? And you'll post some long winded meaningless deflection which doesn't answer the question (like you're doing now).
I don't like using the predictions board either so I can't blame you for that. But there is a simple solution. Go to the predictions board and post your predictions after the terminals close. Some, including me, have done it. Not only do you have a record of it, you also get congratulations and pats on the back.
And you have this thread going (and love to post in it) put your predictions here. Nobody is stealing your numbers after the terminals close since they can't buy a ticket.
But, giving an answer and answering a question is mutually exclusive. As many times as the issue of minimum amount you spend each night/each draw has come up, you've avoided directly answering with a dollar amount. Its a very simple question, like, "How much did that sandwich cost?" and you'd say, "$7.14 including tax," or whatever amount you paid. Rather, you spend a paragraph insisting on, "Its not about the money you spend, its about the money you win."
In truth its about the money you spend vs the money you win. If you spend more than you win, you ain't winning. You're deluding yourself to think, say, or post otherwise. And you haven't honestly answered that question directly. You hide behind the insistence of post winning tickets, which prove you win, but doesn't prove you haven't lost the 6 or 8, or 4, or 12 nights prior, ergo, the reason you've been asked to post predictions prior to the draw and not tickets after the fact. Predictions are records anyone can verify, tickets only say you won that night.
It's okay. I tried to walk away nicely, but your nepotism can't stand the thought that someone isn't buying your sales pitch. Well, you can't convince everyone. You can't fool those who understand the math.
And I'm glad you mentioned all the people in that thread. I said nothing to slight them although you want them to get that impression. "Rallying the troops" is what its called army man. Yet, I had no reason to mention them to make my point. So if you want them to be angry at me for not mentioning their name........well, you are not so smart.
Or maybe you need a group hug? And that's okay too.
Bottom line: Your solution is not a solution if the expense is greater than the return. And you haven't proved it otherwise and has been pointed out over and over and over.........
Peace
GG! See answers below.
First, let's be really clear, down to the brass tacks clear, no nonsense clear....
I'm not going through this point by point. No sense. But....
I didn't read your thread. I read a thread based on nepotism [Answer: nepotism mean favoring relatives or friends; not sure what you mean] where you asked a question. I pay attention. I noticed that hope and prayer was one vote behind your wishful outcome that your programs would be the only choice. I saw that posters preferred their own method over your intended outcome by a wide margin, and 68% of the total vote preferred something other than one of your top three intended targets. By page 10, I glanced at your responses and moved on. You weren't adding anything new, weren't answering the questions, and your arrow inscribed charts had worn out the welcomes. Answer: Look, obviously you haven't moved on. You're on this thread because I have introduced a new solution and you feel it's your duty to review it, and be LP's savior. What are you reviewing/saving if there's no scam? So be it. I created the original thread to share strategies and systems. Clearly that did not happen. And, since YOU have no strategy what is your value on this thread?
What that poll reflects is the long winded answers that avoid direct replies hasn't won anyone over. And here you are with more long winded rhetoric. Answer: Indeed. We are both skilled at long-winded responses.
I didn't bother answering your nonsense response about playing box for $27 and winning $13. While that's true, you failed to mention you now have to take $14 from your pocket to play the next night. Answer: So what? You'll say you don't play every night. To that I'll say then how do post charts that reflect you winning, in some cases, several nights in a row? And you'll post some long winded meaningless deflection which doesn't answer the question (like you're doing now). Answer: So your beef is whether I'm ROI positive on a Pick 3 that costs me $27/night. Get real!
I don't like using the predictions board either so I can't blame you for that. But there is a simple solution. Go to the predictions board and post your predictions after the terminals close. Some, including me, have done it. Not only do you have a record of it, you also get congratulations and pats on the back. Answer: I have enough pats on the back. If you're not arguing about me NOT posting, this statement is moot. Next question.
And you have this thread going (and love to post in it) put your predictions here. Nobody is stealing your numbers after the terminals close since they can't buy a ticket. Answer: Stealing? Stealing? I HAVE put some of my predictions up on MY threads. I merely post (don't love it) to defend the stupidity (like your stealing statement).
But, giving an answer and answering a question is mutually exclusive. As many times as the issue of minimum amount you spend each night/each draw has come up, you've avoided directly answering with a dollar amount. Its a very simple question, like, "How much did that sandwich cost?" and you'd say, "$7.14 including tax," or whatever amount you paid. Rather, you spend a paragraph insisting on, "Its not about the money you spend, its about the money you win."
In truth its about the money you spend vs the money you win. If you spend more than you win, you ain't winning. You're deluding yourself to think, say, or post otherwise. And you haven't honestly answered that question directly. You hide behind the insistence of post winning tickets, which prove you win, but doesn't prove you haven't lost the 6 or 8, or 4, or 12 nights prior, ergo, the reason you've been asked to post predictions prior to the draw and not tickets after the fact. Predictions are records anyone can verify, tickets only say you won that night. Answer: Fair question. True! Spending more than you win is not winning.It's okay. I tried to walk away nicely, but your nepotism [Answer: nepotism mean favoring relatives or friends; not sure what you mean] can't stand the thought that someone isn't buying your sales pitch. Well, you can't convince everyone. You can't fool those who understand the math. Answer: qq: Do you really think I'm trying to sell to you? I'm not pitching to you. I'm pitching to folks who are tired of losing. You're obviously not tired.
And I'm glad you mentioned all the people in that thread. I said nothing to slight them although you want them to get that impression. "Rallying the troops" is what its called army [Army][Actually we don't say that] man. Yet, I had no reason to mention them to make my point. So if you want them to be angry at me for not mentioning their name........well, you are not so smart. Answer: I'm not looking for anyone to be mad at you. Merely pointing out I have supporters you respect.
Or maybe you need a group hug? And that's okay too. Answer: Sure, G! Next time I'm in your neck of the woods, let's hug it out.
Bottom line: Your solution is not a solution if the expense is greater than the return. And you haven't proved it otherwise and has been pointed out over and over and over......... Answer: Fair point. I will incorporate expense into RBTL.
-Will"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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Quote: Originally posted by britwill on Sep 4, 2021
Love it, Mr-B! I think I will incorporate this into RBTL. Nice work! What state is this?
Thanks Will. It's Ohio.
What goes around comes around.
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Since this thread is about back testing why not set up a control group to compare how your numbers perform against a control group.
The following are 120 box combinations:
Unique Singles: 120 box combinations 012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 017, 018, 019, 023, 024, 025, 026, 027, 028, 029, 034, 035, 036, 037, 038, 039, 045, 046, 047, 048, 049, 056, 057, 058, 059, 067, 068, 069, 078, 079, 089, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 156, 157, 158, 159, 167, 168, 169, 178, 179, 189, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 256, 257, 258, 259, 267, 268, 269, 278, 279, 289, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349, 356, 357, 358, 359, 367, 368, 369, 378, 379, 389, 456, 457, 458, 459, 467, 468, 469, 478, 479, 489, 567, 568, 569, 578, 579, 589, 678, 679, 689, 789 The following are 90 box combinations:
Unique Doubles: 90 box combinations 001, 002, 003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 008, 009, 011, 022, 033, 044, 055, 066, 077, 088, 099, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 122, 133, 144, 155, 166, 177, 188, 199, 223, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 229, 233, 244, 255, 266, 277, 288, 299, 334, 335, 336, 337, 338, 339, 344, 355, 366, 377, 388, 399, 445, 446, 447, 448, 449, 455, 466, 477, 488, 499, 556, 557, 558, 559, 566, 577, 588, 599, 667, 668, 669, 677, 688, 699, 778, 779, 788, 799, 889, 899 If RBTL or Consecutive digits generates 30 combinations to play with 20 singles, and 10 doubles then take the first 20 singles from the singles table, and the first 10 doubles from the doubles table that way your picks and the control group have the save coverage and compare how they perform. If your picks consistently performs better then the control group you are on to something. If they don't then move on.
Granted the control group is biased towards a lowest winning digit of zero but the math heads should not care. If for some reason they do care then they are making a statement about the randomness of the game and mutually exclusive events.
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I think this is a great idea, jimjwright. I am open to providing a link to Consecutive Draws generated picks for all states. Posting manually everyday would be too time-consuming.
"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Sep 3, 2021
This chart in your post (and couple of others) beg to differ with your statement you drop the number after it hits. Look carefully at 2021-08-09 and 2021-08-10 where you claim a win with 050. If you dropped 050 after it won on 2021-08-09 you couldn't win with it on the 10th, unless, of course, you're only including it to show the possibilities....which are like dog's daydreams. If it didn't happen its a little misleading to include it. Right?
Further down the chart we see two hits on 2021-08-12 that couldn't have happened if you weren't playing multiple draws the same day. Two wins in the same day is entirely possible in Florida where they have Midday and Evening Draws. But it comes at the price of paying twice....in the minimum case $27 times 2 = $54.
Either way, $54 spent means a $40 box win won't help you. Therefore, the only time this system is worth a dime is winning straights and doubles. Straight and doubles have made fools of all of us at one time or another. How many permutations of a single do you have to play to be guaranteed of hitting straight? And how many for a double? (6 for singles, 3 for doubles for those wondering)
Suddenly that $27 minimum jumps 3 to 6 times per draw! 3 X $27 = $81 per draw. And two draws a day (in Florida) brings that to $162 a day spent.
If you don't hit by the third consecutive draw, you're throwing your money down the drain on a hope, a wing, and a prayer.
I don't need to open a single program to do some quick numbers.
To keep it simple in Texas $27 a draw, we have 4 daily draws, 4 times $27 = $108 a day playing lottery.
$108 times 27 days = $2916 a month on lottery.
$2916 times 12 months = $34,992 a year on lottery.
It may work for a very few dedicated souls willing to neglect any number of bills and creature comforts (say food) they desire if......
1) you have enough of them playing varied sets
2) in various states
but soon enough, perhaps when their pockets are dry, they'll realize it was all fools gold, a dream built on an idea of possibilities, ignoring reality; another Steve Player, if you will.
I'll put keyboard and mouse on my "get it" list. Meanwhile I have to figure out what to do with this MP3 player my wonderful kids sent me. The directions for that make more sense than what I'm seeing here.garyo1954 was very kind to you, britwill, in reference to his analysis of the money spent to play your twenty-seven selected numbers. That breaks down to sort of a middle of the road bet of $ 0.50 Straight and $ 0.50 Box. But you and your marketer probably don't like to publish those kind of low number participation because they're not very impressive and will surly not lure in prospective clients (?) to spend more money playing the RBTL lottery system. After all you guys want to promote visions of winning 10K; 13K ; perhaps even more playing Pick 3; Pick 4. C'mon man ! The Covid 19 virus caused a lot of business related enterprises considerable monetary damage. It wouldn't surprise me if you are nothing more than a member of the LLRRT( Lost Lottery Revenue Recovery Team) cleverly disguised in a britwill suit.
Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors. Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people. These forces would also argue that they have a winning MIRACLE system; that is, until asked to post numbers before the drawing !
Str8ca$hhomie
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str8ca$hhomie, I did not sense kindness from Garyo.
"But you and your marketer probably don't like to publish those kind of low number participation because they're not very impressive and will surly not lure in prospective clients (?) to spend more money playing the RBTL lottery system. After all you guys want to promote visions of winning 10K; 13K" Answer: You're on to something I was thinking about yesterday; I think you may be right. I like to call it 'moving the needle', though. Why do most play the lottery, or buy subscriptions or systems? It's to win more than we have. Hopefully large sums. To that end, I am realizing my wagering style is vastly different than most. I don't play everyday, but when I do I try to WIN Big! My strategy to clients is to win big.
If you and Garyo believe otherwise, the disconnect (reason for the ill vibe) may be a sense of economics [or what I think is affordable versus what may be out of reach for others]. I get it.
Not really sure what you mean here "It wouldn't surprise me if you are nothing more than a member of the LLRRT( Lost Lottery Revenue Recovery Team) cleverly disguised in a britwill suit." but I don't think you're trying to be super insulting or offensive - some of your other peers were. No worries. Moreover, if your going to slander me be accurate or well-informed. "Scammer, Entitled, "looks down on others", Buyer beware" no one has ever characterized me using said terms. I'll chalk it up to you guys just don't know me.
Perhaps one day we can all sit down and have beers. I'll grab the first round.
Happy Labor Day!
-Will
"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe." ~Robert A. Heinlein
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Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Sep 4, 2021
My backtest tool for Pick 3 is shown here. The main premise is for me to run several tests to see what the current trend is. That is reflected in the Col column followed by the X column. In this case, I can see that numbers from Col 7 have hit straight 5 times sine 07/01/2021. I can choose to now play numbers from Col 7 only, or add numbers from other Col's as well. Col's 0 and 5 are showing signs of life as well. The more Col's I play, the more I spend, so it's a bit of a risk. Look closely and you'll see there was a straight hit from Col 8 on 09/02/2021.
I have the option to work with Day, Eve, or both sets of drawings. I can also filter out certain days, dates, or months if so desired. I can choose anywhere from 3 to all drawings for my data pool. Finding that magic number is a key to my success. I selected 50 for this test.
This test run data is gathered from each successive 50 drawings, starting with:
05/13/2021 - 07/01/2021
ending with
07/16/2021 - 09/03/2021
Total bet from July 01, 2021 through Sep. 03, 2021 is $1477. Total won is $2500. Profit is $1023 over a 65 day period. Now of course this is all in hindsight, but I have used this tool to profit in the past. I think my best was 2 straight wins in one month. When I play Pick 3, I rarely, if ever, play for box wins.Why do I feel that my backtest tool is better than yours Will...because I know how it works, I know what to expect from it, I have won with it in the past, and it cost me nothing but a few hours of coding time.
Interesting chart! My program doesn't make such a sophisticated chart, but after seeing your chart (for Ohio) I did a run of my correlation program on the Ohio data to see what it would find for Ohio today. The chart is below. The left-hand column is the current numbers and the right-hand column is the most-highly correlated frame (frame = 31 days) of Ohio numbers from the past. It's marked up showing the straight hits brightly highlighted and boxed hits lightly highlighted to make it easier to see what's going on. This method gives you a chance to see correlated frames developing (I have a giant file of all the correlated frames which meet or exceed a user-set threshold) so you maybe have a chance to spot a winner before it falls. Unfortunately, I think this chart has fizzled out as these things do, but I filtered my other Ohio workups for today (9/6) through the 2011 frame of numbers and came up with this small group of candidate numbers for tonight to compare to yours - 202 214 269 308 467 488 736.
Ohio Max Correlation Map for 09/06/2021
Now | May/June 2011
08/06/2021,428,066 | 05/05/2011,019,963
08/07/2021,900,556 | 05/06/2011,273,978
08/08/2021,654,963 | 05/07/2011,537,530
08/09/2021,409,563 | 05/08/2011,736,096
08/10/2021,358,961 | 05/09/2011,309,431
08/11/2021,856,080 | 05/10/2011,802,488
08/12/2021,566,684 | 05/11/2011,631,099
08/13/2021,147,535 | 05/12/2011,242,217
08/14/2021,167,174 | 05/13/2011,689,348
08/15/2021,236,096 | 05/14/2011,275,863
08/16/2021,566,670 | 05/15/2011,058,420
08/17/2021,273,951 | 05/16/2011,593,828
08/18/2021,348,012 | 05/17/2011,799,653
08/19/2021,327,544 | 05/18/2011,950,366
08/20/2021,228,385 | 05/19/2011,467,516
08/21/2021,159,420 | 05/20/2011,291,929
08/22/2021,647,276 | 05/21/2011,748,012
08/23/2021,155,253 | 05/22/2011,612,587
08/24/2021,971,060 | 05/23/2011,336,933
08/25/2021,336,823 | 05/24/2011,815,440
08/26/2021,801,387 | 05/25/2011,312,210
08/27/2021,878,851 | 05/26/2011,564,549
08/28/2021,308,893 | 05/27/2011,233,361
08/29/2021,978,979 | 05/28/2011,370,269
08/30/2021,153,879 | 05/29/2011,586,202
08/31/2021,578,364 | 05/30/2011,900,416
09/01/2021,907,682 | 05/31/2011,119,060
09/02/2021,247,230 | 06/01/2011,308,572
09/03/2021,224,310 | 06/02/2011,723,430
09/04/2021,621,178 | 06/03/2011,657,214
09/05/2021,960,902 | 06/04/2011,735,103
09/06/2021,660,??? | 06/05/2011,041,918
NOTE: I fudged this chart slightly in order to include today's workup in progress. The actual program output did not include that last line.- p