Elgin, IL United States
Member #68,865
January 1, 2009
1,291 Posts
Offline
When I play the Mega Millions or the Power ball games. My goal is not to win the grand prize. I just shoot for 5 out of 5. I'm shooting for the 1 million dollar prize. If I happen to hit the PB or MB in the process, so be it. If you look at all the individual lotteries, you will find that they are paying out more then the posted odds. This is not luck. People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations.
I am keeping track of the Pick 6 in Illinois. The odds posted for 5 of 6 is 1:73,763. The odds posted for 4 of 6 is 1:1,311. From 01/17/1998 thru 07/01/17 there have been a total of 2,670 drawings. I have found 42 sets of drawings that have matched 5 of 6 numbers twice so far. I have also found 2,346 drawings that have hit 4 of 6 multiple times. If you take 2,346/2,670, you will have a hit ratio of 87.87%. My Groups for the IL Lotto are 574 which are made up of 2,346 drawings. Every single drawing for the month of June 2017 have matched one of my 574 Groups. So much for ODDS.
Here are the drawings for the month of June 2017. The Red numbers are the Groups that match 4 of 6. This is not Random. With a 87.87% hit ratio, I will definitely will say this is far from being random. Enough about odds. If need be, I can print out all 13 groups listed below for the non believers.
mid-Ohio United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by butch2030 on Jul 5, 2017
When I play the Mega Millions or the Power ball games. My goal is not to win the grand prize. I just shoot for 5 out of 5. I'm shooting for the 1 million dollar prize. If I happen to hit the PB or MB in the process, so be it. If you look at all the individual lotteries, you will find that they are paying out more then the posted odds. This is not luck. People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations.
I am keeping track of the Pick 6 in Illinois. The odds posted for 5 of 6 is 1:73,763. The odds posted for 4 of 6 is 1:1,311. From 01/17/1998 thru 07/01/17 there have been a total of 2,670 drawings. I have found 42 sets of drawings that have matched 5 of 6 numbers twice so far. I have also found 2,346 drawings that have hit 4 of 6 multiple times. If you take 2,346/2,670, you will have a hit ratio of 87.87%. My Groups for the IL Lotto are 574 which are made up of 2,346 drawings. Every single drawing for the month of June 2017 have matched one of my 574 Groups. So much for ODDS.
Here are the drawings for the month of June 2017. The Red numbers are the Groups that match 4 of 6. This is not Random. With a 87.87% hit ratio, I will definitely will say this is far from being random. Enough about odds. If need be, I can print out all 13 groups listed below for the non believers.
2017-06-01
4
15
34
36
41
42
572
2017-06-03
2
20
28
35
36
40
433
2017-06-05
22
27
38
42
45
50
46
2017-06-08
3
26
29
44
45
52
103
2017-06-10
5
9
11
27
42
48
4
2017-06-12
4
8
23
30
44
51
266
2017-06-15
14
22
24
25
35
48
496
2017-06-17
7
19
20
25
36
38
286
2017-06-19
4
11
17
32
35
42
493
2017-06-22
5
13
41
42
46
49
573
2017-06-24
3
10
13
14
26
36
574
2017-06-26
4
8
18
19
35
45
463
2017-06-29
2
28
30
32
43
49
305
"People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations.People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations."
Are you one of those people and have you ever had a major win or come close to winning a jackpot playing those combinations?
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Elgin, IL United States
Member #68,865
January 1, 2009
1,291 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jul 5, 2017
"People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations.People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations."
Are you one of those people and have you ever had a major win or come close to winning a jackpot playing those combinations?
Yes & the most I have won was on the IL Little lotto known now as the Lucky Day Lotto. It was a 3 way split, and my share was 76K. I have also hit around 5 times on the IL Lotto. Not the Jackpot prize, but 5 of 6. In each case my winnings were between 1.5K and 2.5K.
United States
Member #132,094
August 26, 2012
1,243 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by butch2030 on Jul 6, 2017
Yes & the most I have won was on the IL Little lotto known now as the Lucky Day Lotto. It was a 3 way split, and my share was 76K. I have also hit around 5 times on the IL Lotto. Not the Jackpot prize, but 5 of 6. In each case my winnings were between 1.5K and 2.5K.
Wyomissing, PA United States
Member #161,043
November 15, 2014
481 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by butch2030 on Jul 5, 2017
When I play the Mega Millions or the Power ball games. My goal is not to win the grand prize. I just shoot for 5 out of 5. I'm shooting for the 1 million dollar prize. If I happen to hit the PB or MB in the process, so be it. If you look at all the individual lotteries, you will find that they are paying out more then the posted odds. This is not luck. People are finding that certain combinations are coming in more than others & they are playing these combinations.
I am keeping track of the Pick 6 in Illinois. The odds posted for 5 of 6 is 1:73,763. The odds posted for 4 of 6 is 1:1,311. From 01/17/1998 thru 07/01/17 there have been a total of 2,670 drawings. I have found 42 sets of drawings that have matched 5 of 6 numbers twice so far. I have also found 2,346 drawings that have hit 4 of 6 multiple times. If you take 2,346/2,670, you will have a hit ratio of 87.87%. My Groups for the IL Lotto are 574 which are made up of 2,346 drawings. Every single drawing for the month of June 2017 have matched one of my 574 Groups. So much for ODDS.
Here are the drawings for the month of June 2017. The Red numbers are the Groups that match 4 of 6. This is not Random. With a 87.87% hit ratio, I will definitely will say this is far from being random. Enough about odds. If need be, I can print out all 13 groups listed below for the non believers.
2017-06-01
4
15
34
36
41
42
572
2017-06-03
2
20
28
35
36
40
433
2017-06-05
22
27
38
42
45
50
46
2017-06-08
3
26
29
44
45
52
103
2017-06-10
5
9
11
27
42
48
4
2017-06-12
4
8
23
30
44
51
266
2017-06-15
14
22
24
25
35
48
496
2017-06-17
7
19
20
25
36
38
286
2017-06-19
4
11
17
32
35
42
493
2017-06-22
5
13
41
42
46
49
573
2017-06-24
3
10
13
14
26
36
574
2017-06-26
4
8
18
19
35
45
463
2017-06-29
2
28
30
32
43
49
305
Shooting for Match-5 in PB or MM is logical, since it's many times more likely. However, from a financial standpoint, it's a lousy bet, since the odds are so bad compared to what they once were. Several years ago, odds of Match-5 was 1 in 3.9 million for MM and something like 1 in 5.3 million for PB. Take a look at what the odds are now. Playing with the intent of winning 2nd isn't worthwhile for PB nor MM anymore. In my view, PB / MM are maybe worth playing is when the cash jackpot is at least 300+ million ($500+ million annuity).
Sure, it's good to mix things up and maybe play PB / MM occasionally other times too, but it's generally a bad wager compared to other games. Even worse, if your primary objective is winning 2nd place. Many other games pay $1+ million with far better odds, and often with better payback percentage too. Even more so, if you subtract out the PB / MM jackpot allocation. Excluding the jackpot, PB / MM payback is like 25%, which is about the worse one will come across for any lottery game.
As for matching less than all numbers (ie. 5 of 5, 6 of 6, etc), there will be ranges of combinations that are more common. However, the overall odds are the same. For example, playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 of either PB or MM matrix will likely yield less 2 of 5 and 3 of 5 matches while playing say 10, 24, 39, 53, 65 will likely yield more. I'm not a mathematician, so not sure the best way to explain this nor the correct terminology. But point is the results you're seeing are likely random, nevertheless.
Run a few hundred thousand PB / MM simulations and you'll see some types of combinations will match 2, 3, 4 very frequently while others won't. However, run the simulation long enough (ie. several hundred million runs) the overall percentage won back will equal out. To put it another way, some combinations allow for winning back smallish wins more often than others. It's nice to win along the way, so playing such combinations is likely the best strategy to go with.
Elgin, IL United States
Member #68,865
January 1, 2009
1,291 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by Ron5995 on Jul 6, 2017
Shooting for Match-5 in PB or MM is logical, since it's many times more likely. However, from a financial standpoint, it's a lousy bet, since the odds are so bad compared to what they once were. Several years ago, odds of Match-5 was 1 in 3.9 million for MM and something like 1 in 5.3 million for PB. Take a look at what the odds are now. Playing with the intent of winning 2nd isn't worthwhile for PB nor MM anymore. In my view, PB / MM are maybe worth playing is when the cash jackpot is at least 300+ million ($500+ million annuity).
Sure, it's good to mix things up and maybe play PB / MM occasionally other times too, but it's generally a bad wager compared to other games. Even worse, if your primary objective is winning 2nd place. Many other games pay $1+ million with far better odds, and often with better payback percentage too. Even more so, if you subtract out the PB / MM jackpot allocation. Excluding the jackpot, PB / MM payback is like 25%, which is about the worse one will come across for any lottery game.
As for matching less than all numbers (ie. 5 of 5, 6 of 6, etc), there will be ranges of combinations that are more common. However, the overall odds are the same. For example, playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 of either PB or MM matrix will likely yield less 2 of 5 and 3 of 5 matches while playing say 10, 24, 39, 53, 65 will likely yield more. I'm not a mathematician, so not sure the best way to explain this nor the correct terminology. But point is the results you're seeing are likely random, nevertheless.
Run a few hundred thousand PB / MM simulations and you'll see some types of combinations will match 2, 3, 4 very frequently while others won't. However, run the simulation long enough (ie. several hundred million runs) the overall percentage won back will equal out. To put it another way, some combinations allow for winning back smallish wins more often than others. It's nice to win along the way, so playing such combinations is likely the best strategy to go with.
Thank you for your comment. However; you keep on looking at the odds for the given game while I keep looking at the chances of winning a game. These are two different scenarios. The odds of winning a game cannot be changed as it is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in the game. But, you can improve your chances of winning by knowing which combinations come in the most often within a given game. Here is what I stated above:
I am keeping track of the Pick 6 in Illinois. The odds posted for 5 of 6 is 1:73,763. The odds posted for 4 of 6 is 1:1,311. From 01/17/1998 thru 07/01/17 there have been a total of 2,670 drawings. I have found 42 sets of drawings that have matched 5 of 6 numbers twice so far. I have also found 2,346 drawings that have hit 4 of 6 multiple times. If you take 2,346/2,670, you will have a hit ratio of 87.87%. My Groups for the IL Lotto are 574 which are made up of 2,346 drawings. Every single drawing for the month of June 2017 have matched one of my 574 Groups. So much for ODDS.
Wyomissing, PA United States
Member #161,043
November 15, 2014
481 Posts
Offline
You say every drawing in June matched one of the 574 groups. However, playing even a small fraction of those regularly would be costly unless you knew which tiny fraction of those 574 to play.
Also, 1 in 1311 of hitting for $50 or so (prize varies) for 4 out of 6 is a lousy payout, though understandable, since it's a jackpot game. Seeking out particular groups of combinations makes sense to win back a little for more play, but does it meaningfully help...
Have you back-tested playing such group combinations? How much of an advantage does it offer over playing quick-picks? And does such strategy help much given the ~50% house margin?
Antwerp Belgium
Member #86,171
January 30, 2010
44 Posts
Offline
HINT! HINT!
All state game result are dependent on the Power (BALL) and that particular state's place location (not the state's geo location) for Thur, Fri, Sun, Mon and Tues results, AND conversely on the Mega (BALL) for Sat and Wed. Each state's place location is either 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.