United States
Member #182,327
June 12, 2017
24 Posts
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We have a ticket in NH called $250,000 Frenzy, I hit $500 on it a couple weeks ago and my buddy hit $200 on it last week after i told him he should play it, according to local retailers 78% of the game has been sold(for weeks now) there are 3 out of 10 top prizes left the game has been out since 2015 and is one of the oldest scratch tickets available in NH, should i go with my original plan and switch to only playing mass tickets, or should i put all my ticket money into this NH game?
According to the NH lottery website, there are 105 prizes left from $1,000 to $250,000: 91 $1,000 prizes left, 11 $2,500 prizes and 3 $250,000 prizes
if 78% of the 1,463,150 tickets printed have been sold(sign has been up for weeks at most retailers so probably 85% by now) that should leave approximately 220,000 tickets left so 220,000/105= about 1 in 2100 to win $1,000 or more.
United States
Member #182,327
June 12, 2017
24 Posts
Offline
NH lottery strikes again haha, went in to the store saw ticket 001 on this game, so i bought 3, all 3 losers, bought the next 2, both losers, bought the next one.. loser, bought the next one... loser, next one.... loser from 001 to 008 all losers. i couldn't bring myself to keep going especially knowing it was most likely a $10 winner if at all...
I think I just answered my own question, adios NH Lottery
randolph nj United States
Member #111,575
May 28, 2011
20 Posts
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I always have a theory that the lottery could (i don't know for sure) but could withhold in the factory 1 of the top prize winners. In fact, in NJ, I've seen 2 or 3 huge games (2-5mil jackpots) end before paying them after selling 99% of tickets. To be fair, I've seen some games sell all 3 top prizes with only like 70% sold. But still, when you see huge games with 99% sold and then the game ends without paying a 5 mil winner you start to wonder.
Either way, I do like to play games that have a lot sold with a few top prizes left like you describe, but i won't chase. Don't forget, there's still a TON of tickets out there even with 80% sold... hundreds of thousands, or a few million in some games.
Don't feel too bad. The other week I was chasing a $10 game and saw 12 losers in a row then a $10 winner.
Each pack has a confirmed 7 winners (out of 30) for most. That means, you could easily see those 7 winners grouped in some packs from 15-30 and 1-14 for example could be all losers.
That's why, I buy 1 or 2 per pack then give up, win or lose. If I hit the jackpot it will have to be on that 1 or 2.
Skippack, PA United States
Member #139,385
February 21, 2013
140 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by MeintooL on Jul 3, 2017
We have a ticket in NH called $250,000 Frenzy, I hit $500 on it a couple weeks ago and my buddy hit $200 on it last week after i told him he should play it, according to local retailers 78% of the game has been sold(for weeks now) there are 3 out of 10 top prizes left the game has been out since 2015 and is one of the oldest scratch tickets available in NH, should i go with my original plan and switch to only playing mass tickets, or should i put all my ticket money into this NH game?
According to the NH lottery website, there are 105 prizes left from $1,000 to $250,000: 91 $1,000 prizes left, 11 $2,500 prizes and 3 $250,000 prizes
if 78% of the 1,463,150 tickets printed have been sold(sign has been up for weeks at most retailers so probably 85% by now) that should leave approximately 220,000 tickets left so 220,000/105= about 1 in 2100 to win $1,000 or more.
What would you guys do?
You are Scratching Smarter!
If you do exactly the analysis you're doing for every game in NH and create a standard Factor for each game - (like our SmartFactor), you can rank the games based on how the odds of winning a top prize have changed for every game. For NH last week, our rankings looked like this:
STATE
OVERALL_RANK
PRICE
GAME_NAME
GAME_NUMBER
SMARTFACTOR
NH
1
$2.00 Games
The WIZARD of OZ™
1285
4.018
NH
2
$2.00 Games
Hunting for Hundreds
1303
2.433
NH
3
$5.00 Games
High Roller
1305
2.219
NH
4
$3.00 Games
Twisted Bingo
1326
1.822
NH
5
$10.00 Games
Red
1325
1.727
NH
6
$5.00 Games
Jingle Bell Bucks
1324
1.704
NH
7
$10.00 Games
$250,000 Frenzy
1278
1.673
NH
8
$5.00 Games
Boost Your Bucks
1338
1.601
NH
9
$5.00 Games
Gold Rush $5
1341
1.564
NH
10
$2.00 Games
Lucky Clover
1330
1.518
NH
11
$5.00 Games
$500 Mayhem
1227
1.419
NH
12
$10.00 Games
Money Madness
1344
1.388
NH
13
$2.00 Games
Joker's Wild
1301
1.353
NH
14
$5.00 Games
Red Hot & Wild 7's
1245
1.277
NH
15
$5.00 Games
Double Sided Dollars
1335
1.246
NH
16
$5.00 Games
High 5
1298
1.239
NH
17
$5.00 Games
Pot O'Gold
1331
1.203
NH
18
$2.00 Games
Triple Play
1296
1.184
NH
19
$5.00 Games
Patriots™
1311
1.181
NH
20
$5.00 Games
Trucks & Bucks
1304
1.181
NH
21
$10.00 Games
$500,000 Fortune
1291
1.169
NH
22
$2.00 Games
Money Multiplier
1348
1.113
NH
23
$2.00 Games
Gold Rush $2
1340
1.076
NH
24
$3.00 Games
Bingo Plus
1346
1.073
NH
25
$2.00 Games
Tiny House, Big Money
1328
1.072
NH
26
$20.00 Games
Mega Cash
1312
1.056
NH
27
$2.00 Games
$20,000 Jackpot
1318
1.021
NH
28
$5.00 Games
5 Times Lucky
1352
1.019
NH
29
$10.00 Games
$200,000 Instant Jackpot
1306
0.996
NH
30
$10.00 Games
Gold Rush $10
1342
0.994
NH
31
$3.00 Games
Tetris®
1347
0.979
NH
32
$10.00 Games
$250,000 Jackpot
1320
0.942
NH
33
$25.00 Games
Granite State Gold
1343
0.938
NH
34
$10.00 Games
Ultimate Vegas Getaway
1334
0.931
NH
35
$3.00 Games
Granite State Money Puzzle
1310
0.897
NH
36
$2.00 Games
Winter Winnings
1322
0.844
NH
37
$5.00 Games
Ruby Red Riches
1314
0.746
NH
38
$10.00 Games
Franklin's Fortunes
1302
0.713
NH
39
$10.00 Games
Sapphire Deluxe
1300
0.711
NH
40
$2.00 Games
Pinball Payout
1336
0.692
NH
41
$5.00 Games
$100,000 Jackpot
1319
0.653
NH
42
$2.00 Games
Ice Queen Riches
1323
0.653
NH
43
$20.00 Games
Double Diamond Spectacular
1297
0.644
Our SmartFactor is calculated for every single game the way you're doing the calculation for $250,000 Frenzy above. Our Factor simplifies it and ranks the games like a card counter would do counting cards playing black jack. Our SmartFactor is the 'card count' for every game, updated every week based on the data the lottery website publishes.
Games with a SmartFactor <1.0 have WORSE odds of winning a top prize from their original printing.
Games with a SmartFactor >1.0 have BETTER odds of winning a top prize from their original printing.
EVEN WITH THIS ANALYSIS, THERE ARE STILL CHALLENGES:
1) GAMES GET PULLED FROM CIRCULATION - the lottery pulls games early because they've made their profit. The top prizes are either never claimed or still sitting in a warehouse awaiting distribution. Once the lottery makes their profit on a game, they'll pull the games from circulation, so, yes, you do have to hunt for the best games. One other note, this analysis immediately keeps you from buying games where the lottery is still selling tickets where all the top prizes have been awarded. NOTE: we do this analysis nationwide and find, on average, games get pulled early from circulation when our SmartFactor analysis shows a rating of 2.5 or higher.
2) general public players either don't claim their prizes or throw them away - some games are very tricky to determine if its a winner, and yes, winning tickets get thrown out, so this analysis is limited by people actually claiming prizes
3) Retailers will make you feel stupid asking for the very best games - they'll say "that game ended' in a tone that makes you feel like you're out of touch. The truth is this: Retailers only make 5% off of every ticket sale and the lottery is a pain in their business. They only use lottery tickets to get customers into their stores to tell them something else. AND retailers or retail employees claim, on average 50% of all winning lottery tickets - NOT the general public. While they're selling you the tickets, they're also watching the winners and losers off of every role. Our general rule - never scratch in front of a retail owner or employee. Buy your tickets and take them off site to scratch.
