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Does anyone here actually turn a profit in the long run?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

Think about it.  For all the small winnings you get, are you allowing that excitement to cloud your judgement? Have you even bothered doing a comparison study on how much you've spent in a month or year compared to how much money you've won?  If not, I think it's time to run an experiment and get real answers.  No more confirmation biases.

If you are turning a profit, how much profit are we talking about?  $5, $10, $50 per game?  Is it even worth all the effort it takes you to run your system?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

For instance, I just went into the Predictions forum and looked at yesterday's winners.  I chose someone who predicted some numbers for the NY Pick 10.  That person had 10 winning games, for $2 each.  So $20 was won. Yay, right?  Wrong.  I checked how much that person "spent" and it was a whopping $50.  So it's a false win.

I just checked another "winning" predictors numbers.  Again, $50 was spent on the NY Pick 10, but only $22 was won (11 lines of winning numbers).

Checked another one.  $50 spent on NY Numbers.  $40 was won.

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In response to Luminus

Luminus,

Finally!  Someone is observing what I have been trying to show with backtests!  Good for you!

But the truth you have discovered is not a reason to avoid the lottery.  Your (Costs-Wins) should be viewed as nothing more than the price you must pay for your chances to win the large jackpots.  The lotteries who pay off the winners must get the money from somewhere!  Smiley

Unfortunately, there are no big jackpots to be won in most Pick3 games.

--Jimmy4164

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
In response to Luminus

If you are following the predictions of particular players, you can also look up their overall win / lose records for the last thirty days and life time by hits and winnings.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to RJOh

I have.  You're on the top 10 Highest Lifetime Prize Ratio list with $18,630 wins. The problem is, the amount of loses you wrack up will most likely be too discouraging for you to keep going long enough to turn a profit.  Your wagers were $13,788.  Your profit was $4,842.  What year did you start posting predictions, again?  Not a single person has a jackpot nor a profit larger than a few thousand dollars.

I mean, if you've spent $500 in a month and only netted $100, that's pretty discouraging.  Your ability to pay bills would suffer big time, as well.  Remember, these guys are playing every day in multiple states.

In the last 30 days, dbello, spent $4,023 and won $6,000.  Who has thousands of dollars of disposable money to be taking wild chances like that and for so little profit?  You might as well get a second job.

 

jimmy4164,

I'm not avoiding the lottery.  I'm just making a point.  If one is going to play the lottery, they need to be aware of issues like this.

CutlassBob's avatar - Sphere animated2.gif

I look at it month to month, overall since i started playing, not sure. But i'm sure in 2009 i was at a major loss, playing too many scratch-off tickets. This year i've cut my scratches down to a whim. So far i've had a decent year.

Mind you i do not play all my predictions. That is a cool aspect of this website.

In Jan i made $666.00

Feb i lost 400.00

In March won $1083.00

In April i made $9497.00

In May, June & July i lost $1000.00

August i was up $2500.00

So far in Sept i'm up over $900.00.

All this playing daily 3 and 4 in Michigan.

I'll know more at the end of the year when i count my win's and losses.

Stay tuned for the big picture in January 2011.

Cutla$$Bob

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I just did the workout from the last year till today. I'm $17.28 ahead of the game.

17.28 divided by 22 years, thats 8,030 days.

It comes to 0.00021519  per day profit.

Not bad.....

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Thats great!  I'm still learning and losing :((

 

Care to share your ways?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

You guys aren't ahead by much.  That's the problem.  Like I said, you're better off getting a second job.

stephi's avatar - winifrid

I haven't seen anyone except one or 2 persons state on this site that they are a professional gambler. I play jackpot games only and yeah i know its lost money but if I don't play i  lose the opportunity to one day change my life for the better.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to stephi

Well, if you're gonna play only jackpot games, then it's not about a profit.  It's about a dream.

aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo

Hi,

Before you decide to play any lottery on regular and continuing basis you should set up a goal and targets - what do you want to achieve and how to achieve it.

Here is my example. I decided to play Lotto 649 with one main objective - to win a big one one day (preferably the Big Jack but the 2nd prize would also make me happy). To achieve this will cost time, effort and money. While I have 1st & 2nd readily available the 3rd is a problem. So I try to achieve my goal at the MINIMUM expense. I don't expect to make a profit on playing the lottery - until the Big One comes around. For me that's acceptable risk and investment. But I do everything I can to maximize small wins on the way to reduce the cost. That is my target and I can achieve it.

No lottery is ever designed to make profits for players. Some players will win big, the great majority will remain loosers. That's a fact of playing any lottery. If you want to make a constant (or at least frequent) profit on something pick appropriate tools to achieve it - like investing in stocks, real estate etc. Lottery is not an appropriate tool for that.

If you cannot take or afford a loss do not play a lottery.

Regards

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to aquariuslottery

I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole.

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In response to aquariuslottery

Luminus,

Although I agree with a lot of your recent sentiment here, you appear to be hedging when you say,

"I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole."

If you are still hopefull that you can turn a consistent profit while waiting for a big hit, you are MOST LIKELY going to fail.  I say "most likely" because as RJOh likes to point out, there are examples of people showing modest profits over reasonable periods of time.  You can expect to see this in random processes like these lotteries.  It's the nature of randomness.  However, UNLESS you have inside information from a corrupt administrator of a computerized results game, you can only hope to be one of the winners if you are LUCKY enough to find yourself out in the "tails" of a distribution which has a MEAN of a 50% loss!

I think aquariuslottery is giving you the best advice above.

--Jimmy4164

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to jimmy4164

I'm NOT hopeful that I can turn a consistent profit.  I don't think anyone can.  That's why I created this thread.

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In response to GASMETERGUY

GASMETERGUY,

"To me the thrill is not in winning nor in the dream of becoming a millionaire overnight.  The thrill is searching for an algorithym that will turn a losing proposition into a profitable proposition.  On those cold, wet winter days when being outside is not an option, I like to sit in front of my computer, open my Excel spreadsheet, and study the relationship between the numbers.  'What if I try this?' I ask myself.'  I then program my Excel to find the answer to my question."

I know the feeling, PRECISELY!  However, I channel this curiosity and love of math into the stock market and the horse races!  In these realms, I've found that "past performances" actually DO have some value when trying to select future winners!  Smiley

You might find what's discussed at www.amibroker.com interesting.

--Jimmy4164

P.S.  I also think it might be fun to face the challenge of becoming an overnight millionaire!

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to st.germain

You're talking luck.  My discussion is about lottery systems.  Therefore, your experience doesn't count here.  And, besides, it's not their money you're playing with.  It's yours.  Claiming that it's their money is a delusion, because it doesn't matter how you got it.  All that matters is that it legally belongs to you.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to lottolaughs

Maybe you missed some things in my post.  I back-checked the board.  The systems are useless.  I challenge anyone to demonstrate otherwise.  That challenge has gone unanswered for a week now.  You do the logic.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to st.germain

Go back and re-read what you just said.  A year.  A YEAR!Hit With Stick  Exactly how much money are you spending in this year?  $5 a week?  $10; $20?  You'd be thousands of dollars in the hole by the time it was done.  If you want to spend a year demonstrating the metal of your system on here, I would GLADLY follow it.  No excuses.  Step up to the plate.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to GASMETERGUY

There are no juvenile posts in here.  Not liking a post, doesn't make it juvenile.  That is a fallacy.  Criticizing people is a part of life and people who value an understanding of reality welcome criticism.

I don't know who you were referring to, but my stance is simple.  All I hear is big talk.  "I can do this" or "My system can do that."  Whatever.Disapprove  There's an old term from the '80's we used to say: Put up or shut up.  

What's it going to be?Wink

st.germain's avatar - Tarlor

I don't have a system...just a good wheel that will churn out combinations from the numbers that i pick for wheeling...maybe i am lucky...i don't know but 3 big payouts is not too bad...it's just sad that it was over a course of ten years...Ya just have to hang in there. As for how much i spend is decided as to how big my wheels are. I use two. One is for 40 dollars and the other is 60 dollars and only twice a week. So, if you multiply that by 52 weeks you will get an idea of how much i spend. It's a lot less then what i win. I don't have much use for all the systems out there as i have faith in the way i use my flowcharts in picking numbers.

I won't embarrass you by asking how much you have won over xxx time  period but i wish you all the luck in  the world.

I'll let you all know when i do hit the megamillion jackpot. goodwill and good luck to you all.

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In response to Luminus

I am not sure I am understanding what you said.  There are juvenile posts on this site as there are on any public forum site.  Heck, I have a posted a few myself.  Go back and read what I said early on, shortly after I joined.  You might get a chuckle out of them.

As to referring to a particular person, I try not to do that too often.  I already have tiggs95 mad at me.  My little red wagon is full at the moment; there is no room for anyone else at this time.

Just what am I to "put up or shut up"?  Or was that meant for me?  I could read your words as referring to those who claim to have a profitable system.  But I am not sure if that is what you meant.

As for me, I am still looking for that "profitable system".  I can win almost any P5/39 game but the cost would be $575,757 per draw.  I do not find that appeasing.

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
In response to Luminus

..... All I hear is big talk.  "I can do this" or "My system can do that."  Whatever.Disapprove  There's an old term from the '80's we used to say: Put up or shut up.  

What's it going to be?Wink

You know what's it going to be.  Getting someone to give up their lottery winning system isn't going to be that easy.  In fact if such a system exists, it wouldn't even be for sale let alone be offered up on a dare.

LP is a forum for discussions lotteries so you should expect a lot of talk that not backed up.  It's up to you to separate truth from fiction.

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I think anyone can make a profit.  Its the game your playing.  You can play p/3 box and make a net profit of at least $50 a week.

rdgrnr's avatar - nw barkeep.jpg
In response to gsc5

Are you saying you are ahead at least $50 every week?

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In response to rdgrnr

It seems to me that everybody poo - poo's playing p/3 box.  Some play str/box, but box only, 

give me a break, you'd have to be nuts.  Everyone wants the jackpot and thats what they play, its

no wonder so few show a profit.   Do you thinks its not possible to walk away with a $50 net profit?

Why not try to make a net profit everyday of $50 or more.

rdgrnr's avatar - nw barkeep.jpg
In response to gsc5

Never mind.

You answer a simple question like a politician.

jrosina's avatar - character catafly.jpg
In response to Luminus

Sun SmileyLuminus, when I first started and very new I used to get so excited that yes!! You are right!! I lost a lot of "Investment"! 

we can loose sight of the big picture! and that is to make more than we spend!! It took me a long while to get it; even dough I had two of the Best in the digit game teaching me; they where my grandmother and my mother; boy they were good!!

It does take a special kind of self restrain not to go over board; especially when you are "So Sure"  you know what is coming!!! LOL.. I do turn a profit every week, some weeks more and others less...

I can only speak for myself it is worth the effort, besides I love this game!!1 I love The Lottery Post!  LOl.. Ha,ha,ha. I am a digit fanatic! Play ON !

and as I tell my family here at home, I am "digit Investor", that's my story and I am sticking to it...LoL!Sun SmileyLovies

jrosina's avatar - character catafly.jpg
In response to rdgrnr

Sun SmileyRd I will anwer you my friend!  am still ahead, some weeks I am ahead by Yards, and other weeks by doves!!!Wink

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In response to rdgrnr

I am not trying to evade your question.  Like most playing lottery, I was putting money trying to win

p/3 $600 or Mo lotto and powerball.  And like most, profits are few and far between.  

Imagine, if you could show a net profit of $100. a week, playing box, thats $5200. a yr. or 

$25,000. in 5 yrs, 10 yrs over $50,000.

Think about it, a lot of numbers can be played for very little money.  

For the first time, for the last 3 weeks I've played only box, and my net profit is way up.  I don't

think it is a good policy to post what you make for all the world to see.  Its not there business.

I don't know how this will turn out over the year, but its got to be way better than I have done.

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