Actually, I am writing this because I am in a mellow mood! It's not to confirm that some call me Plutonium Ion — plus other names in the same category. I've been asked for months what my take was on a new lottery "strategy" named 'vtracks'. I ignored the questions, as I sensed the inherent stupidity of the 'vtrack' issue. Matter of fact, I spam–reported a few fellows who insisted on having me express a pertinent opinion, privately or publicly.
A few people with a higher level of decent inquisition made me take notice. I followed tracks (pun intended!) of this nature:
"I have a question... how is adding a layer of ambiguity (10 numbers reduced to 5, each of the remaining 5 representing 2 numbers) going to help pick better numbers? How is it different from an odd/even filter? (reducing 10 numbers to 2 states [odd/even] where each state could represent 5 possible numbers) just curious, because I have done several v-trac formula conversion sheets in excel for post members in the past, and I have not seen where it makes the results any less random.
hypersoniq"
First, there has been no discussion between me and the Pennsylvanian signing 'hypersoniq' regarding the vtrac issue. Hypersonic wrote to me in the past, but I don't think I have responded to him.
Perhaps tntea — the author of vtracs — is a horseracing aficionado. In some horse races, the organizers 'couple' two (or four, or even six) horses. You'll see on the track programs horses numbered 1 and 1A. Usually, these are poorly performing horses. If you bet on number 1 but number 1A wins — you still win. Also, if you bet on 1A and 1 was the winner — you still win. Sounds like a good deal, crocodilule!
Now, this crocodile named 'Tea Of Tennessee' thinks that coupling is possible in pick 3 lottery as well. So he couples 0 with 5, and so on. If he were a neigh smarter, he would have coupled 0 with 9, 1 with 8, 2 with 7, etc. You get the more interesting (but still worthless point) of the constant average 4.5 of pick–3. Instead of 10 digits, tntea attempts to advance the idea that pick–3 is now a 5–digit game! Wow! What a magician! David Copperfield would feel like dying of envy!
Coupling 10 horses results in 5 betting entities. Nyet! The pick–3 is not coupled horseracing…
What is total number of 5 digits to the power of 3? It's 125, no debate here. Every senile idiot (unfortunately, like many in this agora) would jump of joy: "Salui! Salui!" (a religious chant of the Salius priests in the Roman empire.) Instead of 1000 pick–3 sets, we only have to deal with 125. We pay $125 and always win $500! Halleluiah! Halleluiahs!
The more cool–headed jumpers (Salius means 'jumper', approximately) would land their feet on earth, sooner or later. The crash landing would cause them realize that the 5 digits necessarily have to expand twofold. Still OK! Still Halleluiah! Instead of $125 we pay $250 — but still win $500 every time! A profit is a profit is a profit!
The two forms of expansion are terribly misleading. Expanding from 5 to 10 digits unnecessarily eliminates legitimate two–digit and three–digit repeats. Nevertheless, the pick–3 lottery draws some 28% double or triple digits. That percentage can't be ignored. The worst part is that the lottery will NOT grant you the OR proposition. Like the crazy horse with the claim: "Hey, I am 1 OR 1A; that is, 0 OR 5…" I am honest to painstaking lengths.
There are people who believe that hiding the uncomfortable truth is a sign of high level of socialization. You are in public and hear a statement. You reply: "Oh, something interesting! I haven't thought of anything that way. I am going to think about it more thoroughly at my leisure!" But you go home and think: "What a stupidest idiot!"
I have never followed that path, ever! Never did and never will. Truthfully, this vtrac thing is idiotic. It is terribly stupid. I am not preaching that humans should stop searching for new ways in life. I am not even preaching that searching, researching and creating should be done in the utmost privacy. I applaud the courage to go publick (sic!) with everything. But the key point is to pass the test of time and the test of evidence (data, facts, etc.) When the evidence shows a preponderance of heuristic bias against your initial idea, show the true human metal and admit the error. Go back to your drawing board and research further.
This tea maker of Tennessee allowed his terribly wrong idea to linger for way too long. He lost the respect that the researchers are entitled to. Psychologists call this type of cowardice 'toxic shame'. We should never, ever be ashamed of being wrong at various points in our development. As Confucius put it: "Our glory is not never falling down, but getting up after every fall." See that Chinese figure skating couple at the Torino 2006 Olympics? The lady fell badly, I mean, I expected the ambulance. But she rose, with her partner, to the silver medal…
Sorry, but I go one step further in telling the truth. I couldn't believe what I saw when I first read about vtrac. At best, I thought it was some joke. Well, I thought, people poke fun at lottery. The odds are so high–stacked against the players, that joking might be the best treatment. But then I realized that people took vtrac very seriously. Thousands of posted lines prove the seriousness. Well, I thought to myself, they must be drunk! Ye know, it may be better to get drunk than to lose all that money playing the lottery stupidly…
I am afraid, there is something else, in addition to joking and drunkenness. Stupidity plays the forefront role in this matter. I can tell to everyone in this world, smart or idiot. Actually, each and every human is an idiot in most fields of knowledge and expertise. We only have a handle in very few domains. Let's refer to lottery only, in this place. If you are not sure how to conduct a test, employ computer simulation. You can find many a computer programmer out there who can easily write a simulation application. You might pay much, much more by testing idiotic "systems" with your pocket book.
(By the way, I am not a programmer for hire. I am too busy programming and testing my own stuff. I have been an idiot in my own eyes for so many times, that I had no choice but create absolutely the best lottery software ever. I am still fighting my residual idiotism, but I am so far ahead on the road to the truth. Stumble or fall, I always jump forward.)
Ion Saliu,
Jumper At–Large