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Poisson's tables of repeating #'s

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Hello,

Are there any math geniuses out there that can help me out with some lottery statistics/calculations.  My question is this:  If the Powerball Lottery was to have sales of $100M for a particular drawing, what would the percentage of repeating numbers be?  In other words, how many of the Powerball tickets would have the same set of numbers?   I know you are supposed to use Dr. Poisson's tables of repeating numbers to calculate this, but I can't seem to locate them.  Does anybody know how to calculate this for me?  I would like the percentage of repeating numbers for $100M, $150M, and $200M.

Thanks!

stoopendaal's avatar - archer

Hi WorldWide7777,

Try this  post ; https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/93487

 

GoodLuck!

 

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Well, it's a known fact that the computer that generates quickpicks is set to only generate a certain PERCENTAGE of all the combinations possible.  So the quickpick you buy today might be the quickpick someone else bought two days ago in another state.

If you research the history of winning numbers of the PowerRip or MegaRip, esp. those who picked all five numbers correctly (but not the mega/power ball), notice how many of those had the same exact five numbers!

I don't play the Power/MegaRip often because the number field is almost impossible to "crack" using standard methods.  If everyone boycotted these games for two weeks or even two months, and focussed on the lower number field games, then maybe just maybe they would alter the matrix of numbers.

johnph77's avatar - avatar

I haven't done a probability table on the new Powerball matrix, but my past calculations on these charts in this large a pool have indicated that just around the 40% area of total possibilities there is an even chance that a set of numbers generated by a random number generator will be exactly the same as one of the previous sets of numbers. In the Powerball 5/55+1/42 matrix there are 146,107,962 possibilities, so, without doing the actual chart, around the 58,443,185th random number generation I would estimate there would be an even chance that the numbers generated would duplicate a previous set. This estimation is not too far off the actual figure.

gl

j

johnph77's avatar - avatar

To correct any misconception of my previous post, around the 40% mark there is an even chance that duplicate sets of numbers have already been drawn, not simply on just the next drawing.

gl

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Hey,

Thanks for the replies...  I got some interesting comments.  The most interesting is from "Greg" would said the Powerball computers don't have all of the numbers in the matrix involved in the quickpicks.  If this is true, that is absolute FRAUD!  I have emailed MUSL and asked them if this is true, so I will let you know of the answer.

Also, nobody seems to know about the Poisson's tables of repeating numbers.  The people at MUSL are the ones that informed me of Mr. Poisson and his statistical tables.  I would think that with sales of $150M, the percentage of repeating numbers would be approaching 50%.  The reason I want to know this information is because Powerball is going to match these sales figures in the near future when the Jackpot goes to $300M on 2/15/2006.

Thanks for your help, and if you have any other relevant info on these percentages, I would appreciate it!

Brett

Lep

Raven62's avatar - binary

"FRAUD! I have emailed MUSL and asked them if this is true,"

Of course they will admit to you that they are committing Fraud... LOL!

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Hello!

Not sure how many of you will see this reply, but I DID hear back from MUSL regarding this issue.  Here is the reply:

 
  
Of course, the terminal RNG is NOT set to generate a subset of the total combinations.  I know of a case where that did happen (many years ago in one state) and there was hell to pay for the vendor.  The terminals are all tested to be sure that the RNGS cover all possible combinations.

 

That said, one must remember that using quick pick numbers creates a double random selection.  In fact, only one random selection method is needed to make the game fair.  The only problem that an error with the terminal RNG causes is that a jackpot winner could share the prize with a lot of other winners. 

 

Imagine that lottery terminals all spit out the same number.  If that number hit, there would be lots of winners.  It the terminal only spits out 1,000 numbers, there would still be lots of winners if one of those numbers hit.  In games like Powerball – where the low-tier prizes are set – the lottery does NOT want to see a larger-than-statistically-expected number of winners. 

 

The lottery actually wants the exact opposite of what this writer assumes is happening. 

 

 

Any comments?  Do you believe them?  Is the Powerball rigged?

Brett

LOL 

 


From: World Wide [mailto:worldwidewoowoo@yahoo.com]
Sent: Friday, February 03, 2006 12:36 PM
To: letters
Subject: Question

 

 

Hi,

 

 

 

Could you read the following post and comment on it:

 

 

 

United States
Member #119
February 19, 2002
311 Posts
Quote GregTop of pagePosted: Yesterday, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

 

 

 

Well, it's a known fact that the computer that generates quickpicks is set to only generate a certain PERCENTAGE of all the combinations possible.  So the quickpick you buy today might be the quickpick someone else bo! ught two days ago in another state.

 

If you research the history of winning numbers of the PowerRip or MegaRip, esp. those who picked all five numbers correctly (but not the mega/power ball), notice how many of those had the same exact five numbers!

 

I don't play the Power/MegaRip often because the number field is almost impossible to "crack" using standard methods.  If everyone boycotted these games for two weeks or even two months, and focussed on the lower number field games, then maybe just maybe they would alter the matrix of numbers.

 

 

 

Is this assertion true?  Do the Powerball computers only generate a "certain percentage of all possible combinations" or are all the numbers in the FULL MATRIX in the computers of the Powerball machines?

 

TopEnd of thread (1 page)

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