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need help with hit percent

hypersoniq's avatar - binary

ok, I am about ready to roll out a new freebie "open source" system for pick3 and pick4, but I need to test the results...

here is the info I have,

scenario one (3 digit game)

This game had 9,881 drawings... how many times would I expect to hit straight playing one random combination per game over the entire draw history?

scenario two (4 digit game)

This game had 7,367 drawings... how many times would I expect to hit straight playing one random combination per game over the entire draw history?

If anyone has a formula, that would help also... once I get the answer I will post the results of my backtesting... If I am on par with random averages, then there is no point wasting everyone's time with it...

thanks in advance for all replies Smile

Raven62's avatar - binary

In my travels I came across the following statistics for the Pick-3:

50% of the time a NoMatch (6 way boxed number) will hit within 116 draws of its last draw.

75% of the time it will hit within 231 draws of its last draw.

99.00% of the time a nomatch will hit within 765 games of its last draw.

Hopefully they will help you with your quest.

 


hypersoniq's avatar - binary

interesting... thanks!

here's what I found for results when backtesting my system...

3 digit (64 straight hits in 9,881 games)

4 digit (11 straight hits in 7,367 games)

johnph77's avatar - avatar

The odds are exactly what they appear to be - 1::1,000 and 1::10,000, respectively. Your results are not outside the realm of normal probability.

gl

j

WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0

 Something doesn't add up right. If you are looking at Straights only ......then that figure is way higher than expected.    

Avatar

 Something doesn't add up right. If you are looking at Straights only ......then that figure is way higher than expected.    

I Agree!

LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg

I don't know math, but yes, it is very obvious, so I also do agree.

Go for it, Hyper.

WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0

 It takes 2.7 years for all 1000 numbers to cycle or have at least one chance to hit.  

Any Straight has an expected hit rate of 1 time every 1000 draws. Straight that is. Soooo it's really pretty easy to figure that the expected rate is once every 1000 number draw cycle. There were almost 10 cycles over about 27 years of draws or 9,881 . I would expect at least 9 or 10 straight hits during that time of any one of the 1000 numbers...... even triples. Each of the 1000 numbers would have hit straight almost the same amount of times.

                        9.8 times straight (each)   

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk

Remember if he's using a system then he's trying to do better than averages.  If a system can't beat the odds then it's no better than choosing QPs.  If it's really much better than expected he might have a winner.

Also in every lottery game that I've ever participated, combinations will start repeating when less than 15% of the possible combination have hit.  This include pick5 games also where I follow Ohio Buckeye5 which had 5 combinations to repeat in its 5000 draw history.  Buckeye5 was a 5/37 game that had 435,897 possible combinations.

paurths's avatar - underground

Each number has 1 in 1000 to hit, every draw.
The chances of the same number hitting several draws, counted before the first draw!!!, straight as is, would be for e.g. 3 draws in a row: 1000 * 1000 * 1000 = 1/1 000 000 000
i guess...

NJ eve, pick3:
10433 draws
Each number, in theorie, should have hit 10 times. (it's not b/c we find the 998 a high sum, that it has no chance of hitting... a 18-sumdigit has more chance to come out b/c it covers much more numbers than 24 or so, see the number 996 in the following view)

Top 20:

NbrHits
21923
99622
82421
00821
23920
25720
94920
91819
37419
11419
09719
16019
29119
31019
34218
51618
88818
09218
75118
32318

 

Worst 20

NbrHits
3554
3674
0044
0714
1624
3034
9564
2034
3944
6654
4574
7394
2134
4403
2173
1383
7533
7282
1272
0612

 

108 numbers have hit 10 times
The next view shows how many numbers fall into what categorie

numbersHits
123
122
221
320
719
1318
917
3116
3715
6014
8413
10812
13511
10910
1119
1048
647
636
335
184
43
32

hypersoniq's avatar - binary

cool, looks like things are a bit higher than random... definitely looks like something to keep working on.

thanks for the help!

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