The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the prize is 23.0M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $41M. The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball
The average sales for MM 4th round drawings is $17.8M. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:
0 | 90.47% |
1 | 9.06% |
2 | 0.45% |
3 | 0.02% |
In the previous jackpot run, which established some records for jackpot growth before settling down to behave in a more typical fashion, I treated the system as if a historical average data had skipped a drawing. While the current run is not exceeding the previous records, it remains close to those records. Therefore the data suggests that I do the same here. I will report the modeling program as if an average drawing number has been skipped. This will, I think, give a better picture of what may happen should this run continue for a long time.
The long term probability model thus suggests this:
| $540,470,787.71 | $303,683,397 | 50.15% | 0.60% |
| $471,836,250.09 | $265,118,557 | 54.34% | 1.20% |
(Average Annuity, M) | $411,181,948.02 | $231,037,706 | 58.33% | 2.21% |
$315 | $357,580,008.12 | $200,919,484 | 62.10% | 3.78% |
$262 | $310,210,442.19 | $174,303,150 | 65.64% | 6.09% |
$247 | $268,348,603.23 | $150,781,536 | 68.93% | 9.27% |
$217 | $231,354,099.97 | $129,994,813 | 71.98% | 13.45% |
$186 | $198,661,000.34 | $111,624,992 | 74.79% | 18.69% |
$158 | $169,769,174.02 | $95,391,057 | 77.36% | 24.99% |
$135 | $144,236,641.54 | $81,044,664 | 79.70% | 32.30% |
$115 | $121,672,813.01 | $68,366,347 | 81.83% | 40.53% |
$96 | $101,732,512.99 | $57,162,155 | 83.76% | 49.53% |
$81 | $84,110,700.09 | $47,260,691 | 85.50% | 59.13% |
$69 | $68,537,800.50 | $38,510,485 | 87.08% | 69.16% |
$57 | $54,775,584.14 | $30,777,677 | 88.49% | 79.42% |
$46 | $42,613,520.30 | $23,943,974 | 89.76% | 89.76% |
Here as before, the first column represents average annuities in millions, the second column represents the annuity jackpot, the third column the cash jackpot, the fourth column the individual likihood for a particular drawing, and the fourth column the likihood of all jackpots up to and including that one rolling.