# Let's be totally stupid

Let's say I was a stupid idiot, and I played all 1,000 pick-3 numbers every draw. Guess what would happen??... Yep, That's right... I'd hit the correct number EVERY SINGLE TIME. This is not a Polish Joke... I am DEAD SERIOUS! If I played 100% of all the combinations, I would 'pick" the correct number 100% of the time. I hope you all agree so far. It's like the two guys who would drive 100 miles and buy a truck-load of watermellons for one dollar each. Then they would drive 100 miles back into the city and sell them for one dollar each. After about a month of hard work, one guy says to the other... "HEY.... we're not making any money".... the other guys says "Yeah, I think we need a bigger truck"..

UH DUH... The odds of winning (1,000 to 1)  do not equal the Pay-Out odds (500 to 1). Otherwise the state lotteries wouldn't be in business. I really hope you're not having any trouble following the idea.

So what's my point? Well.. I STILL think there is a chance to win money at this game. What makes so many people play this game is that they can't tell the difference between picking the correct number and "WINNING MONEY". They have no clue what the difference is.

If you're interested in followning me and my "thoughts".. simply reply here with your screen name and I'll continue. Otherwise, I won't bother to waste my keystrokes. Even if you'd like to argue with me... Let's Rock N Roll...

Kp2o3

I got to many headaches trying to figure MrSteel01 out. You would definitely give me a migraine.

However, there is hope because I think you and MrSteel01 are soul mates. What do you reckon MrSteel01, do you both speak the same lingo?

Your invitation is spurned; one of the conclusions I reached a long time ago is that it is stupid to argue with a stupid person because they are too stupid to recognise their own stupidity so why should one expect them to follow anything that was anything other than stupid.

Have a nice day.

Colin

Colin F

What's wrong with you today?

Let the man speak and make his point, after all, he is not talking to you, but to everybody and some other people might want to hear, stupid or not, let others make their own minds about it.

Nice day to both of you.

That's ok. No biggie. I know I loose people with my stupid explanations. It's my fault. I'll post again later when I have more time.  Peter C.

You're dead on Kp2o3.  If you play pick-3, you will lose, it is unavoidable.  What if somebody walked up to you and said, "I have a great deal for you!  For every dollar you give me I will give you 50 cents."  Every day many people accept such an offer.

But what if i told you that you can play a few times a year when something is out of wack. Wouldn't you think all numbers have to hit at "some point in time". After 16 years, the FL Cash-3 still has two straight numbers that have never hit. (652 and 494). If they went 5,800 draws without hitting, can they go ANOTHER 5,800 draws?? What do you think?

Peter C.

Quote:Originally posted by Zeno on June 30, 2004

You're dead on Kp2o3.  If you play pick-3, you will lose, it is unavoidable.  What if somebody walked up to you and said, "I have a great deal for you!  For every dollar you give me I will give you 50 cents."  Every day many people accept such an offer.

The laws of probability predict that after 5800 draws there is likely to be 3.0 nbrs not

yet drawn. After 7500 draws ther ewould be 0.55 nbrs not drawn and after 8000 draws

there would be 0.3 nbrs not yet drawn.

Bertil

I agree kp2o3, But the human behavior is not so simple.

Quote:Originally posted by Bertil on July 01, 2004

The laws of probability predict that after 5800 draws there is likely to be 3.0 nbrs not

yet drawn. After 7500 draws ther ewould be 0.55 nbrs not drawn and after 8000 draws

there would be 0.3 nbrs not yet drawn.

Bertil

Quote:Originally posted by Bertil on July 01, 2004

The laws of probability predict that after 5800 draws there is likely to be 3.0 nbrs not yet drawn. After 7500 draws ther ewould be 0.55 nbrs not drawn and after 8000 draws there would be 0.3 nbrs not yet drawn.

Bertil

Yes... you're right. How did you come to this conclusion? I am working with "models" of the Pick-3. I am downlowading 10,000 single digit numbers from www.random.org . Then I do it twice more and lay the numbers in 3 columns to emulate three machines like all the pick 3 games. Now I have 10,000 3-digit numbers. I am finding out some pretty interesting stuff. I have 4 models so far. My goal is 100 models. My specialty is tracking "groups" of numbers, and how long is the longest time the group can POSSIBLY stay away. In one model, the number "1" stayed away in the first column for 116 draws. In the FL Cash-3, the 6-way box "347" stayed away 1350 draws. I am studying "how long can different things possibly STAY AWAY". What is the longest period of time any 6-way box went without hitting in YOUR Pick-3??????????

I hate these message boards. We should stary a "Pick-3" mailing list.

Peter C.  -  Stuart FL

Don't count on useful Pick-3 information coming out of a computer r.n.g. because the two aren't even close.

The lottery doesn't select one ballset and machine to conduct 10,000 draws from.  It's really like dozens of random number generation threads are twisted or woven together for each column to get the string of drawings we see.

Let's say there are 21 ballsets and 7 machines, that's 147 different draw generators contributing to the draw history and that's only good up to the point where they make a replacement, then all bets are off.

Despite this attempt to randomize the lottery the actual result is a history of drawings that reaches out for wobbley stability rather then chaos.

For some reason for some people this dance of the numbers forms a pattern good enough to put money on.  You won't find it looking somewhere else.

BobP

Ok,,, but you went over my head with your college level vocabulary. I understand about the use of different machines PLUS using different ball sets, but what I don't understand is why you think the numbers drawn are not random, or do not form a random "string"? I don't care if they use 500 different machines and 500 different ball sets. (unless you're one of the ones that believe that amount of PAINT used on the ball determins which balls pops up more often). The number "1" uses less paint than an 8, so "1" pops up more often??... I don't believe that.

In any case, then WHY do my modles "resemble" each other?

For example, lets look at the maximum draws any single digit can stay OUT of the 3 digits drawn. In the Florida Cash-3, the MAX was 103 draws with no "1" in the first column. In my model-001 the number "9" in the third column went 108 draws without being drawn, and 3 other modles show 109, 110 and 116 as max draws without a particular number being drawn in a column.

So according to you... what do you think the maximum draws would be for a single digit to stay OUT??  200 draws?, 300, 500.. Is it possible fir a single digit to stay out 1,000 draws? I think not. WHERE is the point where it is no longer possible? On the other end of the spectrum, what is the max draws that a single digit can appear in succession? 7 draws, 10 draws, 20, 30? The most I've found is 6 draws in a row. I am into studying "tolerances". "I" think... Changing machines and ball sets has nothing to withh the price of tea in China. Everytime a ball pops up, it pops up at random. I'm open minded, so I'd like to hear what you have to say. Just take it easy with the fancy words. I never graduated high school.

Peter C.  Stuart, FL

Quote:Originally posted by BobP on July 04, 2004

Don't count on useful Pick-3 information coming out of a computer r.n.g. because the two aren't even close.

The lottery doesn't select one ballset and machine to conduct 10,000 draws from.  It's really like dozens of random number generation threads are twisted or woven together for each column to get the string of drawings we see.

Let's say there are 21 ballsets and 7 machines, that's 147 different draw generators contributing to the draw history and that's only good up to the point where they make a replacement, then all bets are off.

Despite this attempt to randomize the lottery the actual result is a history of drawings that reaches out for wobbley stability rather then chaos.

For some reason for some people this dance of the numbers forms a pattern good enough to put money on.  You won't find it looking somewhere else.

BobP

Kp203

Don't worry about the College vocabulary because there is nothing in there that makes sense.

You want to know about Wheels and Lotto, BobP is a very knowledgeable man. When it come to randomness and the physical apparatus involved BobP has ideas that are not shared by me and I think a few others to. ( I thought after the last episode that he had conceded he was wrong and changed his mind on some of these fantasies.)

Let's see -

Don't count on useful Pick-3 information coming out of a computer r.n.g. because the two aren't even close.
And what about the Lotto Operators that use Computer generated numbers?

The lottery doesn't select one ballset and machine to conduct 10,000 draws from.  It's really like dozens of random number generation threads are twisted or woven together for each column to get the string of drawings we see.
There is no sense in this paragraph, whatsoever.

Let's say there are 21 ballsets and 7 machines, that's 147 different draw generators contributing to the draw history and that's only good up to the point where they make a replacement, then all bets are off.
Ballset changes are in the main cosmetic.

Despite this attempt to randomize the lottery the actual result is a history of drawings that reaches out for wobbley stability rather then chaos.
The Lottery consists of equal opportunity Random Numbers drawn from a given range, period.

For some reason for some people this dance of the numbers forms a pattern good enough to put money on.  You won't find it looking somewhere else.
Dance of the numbers - maybe whirling dervishes? What's he been drinking or puffing?

Colin

I have said it before and will say it again, it does not matter how the hell they get the numbers, in the end all that matters are the numbers themselves regardless of how the hell they got them in the first place.

The history of the draws, that's all that you have in the end and that's all that you need to get the winning number(s) with.

That's all that you have to work with for the most part, that's what you need to use to get the number.

Quote:Originally posted by LANTERN on July 05, 2004

The history of the draws, that's all that you have in the end and that's all that you need to get the winning number(s) with.

That's all that you have to work with for the most part, that's what you need to use to get the number.

The history files only show you where your Lotto has BEEN, not where it's GOING. Better to look at what's happened in the history files of ALL the states. Then you can get a feel of what CAN happen. (maybe)

If you play more than a few times a year. You'll be a looser at this game.

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Kp2o3

But if the Lotto History is long enough take a halfway point then for that past History you have the History that ensued.

Generally, I agree with what you are saying; previously on this forum I have said whatever conclusions you come to for a given History should be tested on another like History or do as I do generate your own Histories and multiple test.

Colin

It is a fact the Florida lottery uses 21 ballsets and 7 machines for the Pick-3 and Pick-4 draws, they randomize the rotation of ballsets and machines.  In my opinion this makes 147 unique digit generation systems weaving their draws throughout the results.  Nothing at all to do with what I was talking about in that other thread where I was wrong.

I think they do this to make prediction as hard as possible, others think something else, whatever helps you sleep at night, right?

When we talk about random in lotto it is often to say anything can happen even the one digit ball being drawn a hundred times in a row or not for a hundred draws.  Talk is cheap.

Reality is extremes while interesting are not the way to bet and often cause deceptive avarages. True  Average, Median and Mode are what you really want to be looking at.  I'm sure the math scholars can tell you what they mean and how to use them if you were asleep in high school math class (I know I was stupid 7am bus pickup).

Sometimes really random things simulate non-random patterns, we're only talking about columns of ten possible digits each.  Visable patterns have to form, often do and continue like waves forming, raising and breaking.  Even with the lottery's attempt to rotate ballsets and machines simular patterns emerge.  You don't have to see them or look for them, but some people claim to see them and I can't prove they don't.  BobP

Quote:O

Kp203

There is a spell checker. Look at the ABC icon on the right side on the toolbar. But you have to download it.

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