Quick Picks vs Self Picks, neither has an advantagePrev Topic Next Topic

Coin Toss

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Aug 5, 2022, 9:21 pm

A few people in the News Forum asked in the thread about the $1.337 billions MM jackpot asked if the winning ticket was a self pick or a quick pick.

Two things I don't get are what difference does it make now that such info. is nor posted anymore and, if people are that curious they have to be on the internet to get to LP, that being the case, how hard is this to do?

Quick Pick vs Self Pick Entries

When you enter Mega Millions you have two options- choose your own numbers or have a QuickPick choose them for you. A QuickPick will randomly choose the numbers for you at the point of sale when the ticket is printed out of the lottery machine at the retailer, rather than reading the numbers on the playslip and assigning those onto the ticket.

It's important to note that neither way of entering Mega Millions has an advantage over the other. The odds that you will win a prize are exactly the same for both methods.

Quick Pick vs Self-Pick | Mega Millions Entries (mega-millions.com)

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If you're curious about Powerball, go here;

How Many Powerball Winners Choose Their Own Numbers?

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A guy I knew had an air conditioning and heating shop. Every time I stopped in to see him he'd ask what the jackpots were. I gave him the in state phone number for the Illinois lottery and he'd look at me and everyone else in the shop with an "Well I'm not about to call it" look on his face.

One guy said "Then you must not want to know that bad."

Is that what we're dealing with here on LP in such threads?

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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Aug 5, 2022, 9:58 pm

"I think, at a child’s birth, if a mother could ask a fairy godmother to endow it with the most useful gift, that gift would be curiosity."




- Eleanor Roosevelt

rcbbuckeye

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Aug 6, 2022, 3:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Aug 5, 2022
A few people in the News Forum asked in the thread about the $1.337 billions MM jackpot asked if the winning ticket was a self pick or a quick pick.

Two things I don't get are what difference does it make now that such info. is nor posted anymore and, if people are that curious they have to be on the internet to get to LP, that being the case, how hard is this to do?

Quick Pick vs Self Pick Entries

When you enter Mega Millions you have two options- choose your own numbers or have a QuickPick choose them for you. A QuickPick will randomly choose the numbers for you at the point of sale when the ticket is printed out of the lottery machine at the retailer, rather than reading the numbers on the playslip and assigning those onto the ticket.

It's important to note that neither way of entering Mega Millions has an advantage over the other. The odds that you will win a prize are exactly the same for both methods.

Quick Pick vs Self-Pick | Mega Millions Entries (mega-millions.com)

///////////////////////////

If you're curious about Powerball, go here;

How Many Powerball Winners Choose Their Own Numbers?

////////////////////////////

A guy I knew had an air conditioning and heating shop. Every time I stopped in to see him he'd ask what the jackpots were. I gave him the in state phone number for the Illinois lottery and he'd look at me and everyone else in the shop with an "Well I'm not about to call it" look on his face.

One guy said "Then you must not want to know that bad."

Is that what we're dealing with here on LP in such threads?

I buy QP's now and then. My problem with them is sometimes I'll get a set of numbers that I wouldn't pick in my wildest dreams. And, yes, I am aware that EVERY set of numbers is part of the total possibilities. Still...

An example. Last week I bought a Tx 2 Step ticket. I used a playslip with 2 lines chosen. The first line line I checked the box for a QP. The second line I had a set of numbers I had chosen.

The QP numbers were...21-24-26-29 +13. Not happy. It's extremely rare for all 4 numbers to be the same decade.

That the chances one takes with a QP.

Edit: As it turned out, neither line produced a win.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
cottoneyedjoe

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Aug 6, 2022, 3:43 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Aug 6, 2022
I buy QP's now and then. My problem with them is sometimes I'll get a set of numbers that I wouldn't pick in my wildest dreams. And, yes, I am aware that EVERY set of numbers is part of the total possibilities. Still...

An example. Last week I bought a Tx 2 Step ticket. I used a playslip with 2 lines chosen. The first line line I checked the box for a QP. The second line I had a set of numbers I had chosen.

The QP numbers were...21-24-26-29 +13. Not happy. It's extremely rare for all 4 numbers to be the same decade.

That the chances one takes with a QP.

Edit: As it turned out, neither line produced a win.

I agree. Another problem for some is when you buy multiple lines of QPs and you get repeated bonus ball numbers, when you prefer to have greater coverage instead.

I'll never not be curious if a jackpot winner won with QPs or came up with the winning numbers on their own. But I'm always more curious about how many tickets they bought for the drawing. Was it a single? $50 worth?

garyo1954

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Aug 6, 2022, 4:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Aug 6, 2022

I buy QP's now and then. My problem with them is sometimes I'll get a set of numbers that I wouldn't pick in my wildest dreams. And, yes, I am aware that EVERY set of numbers is part of the total possibilities. Still...

An example. Last week I bought a Tx 2 Step ticket. I used a playslip with 2 lines chosen. The first line line I checked the box for a QP. The second line I had a set of numbers I had chosen.

The QP numbers were...21-24-26-29 +13. Not happy. It's extremely rare for all 4 numbers to be the same decade.

That the chances one takes with a QP.

Edit: As it turned out, neither line produced a win.

Absolutely agree.

Looking at the game data (pretests included), any set in the same decade has a 1.0626% chance of showing up 118hits/11104 draws meaning it MAY occur once in 100 draws.

You can see the individual breakdown here.....

FRONT	Hit
0000	28	0.25%
0001	170	1.53%
0002	165	1.49%
0003	110	0.99%
0011	366	3.30%
0012	780	7.02%
0013	480	4.32%
0022	353	3.18%
0023	480	4.32%
0033	124	1.12%
0111	234	2.11%
0112	877	7.90%
0113	486	4.38%
0122	843	7.59%
0123	1109	9.99%
0133	312	2.81%
0222	262	2.36%
0223	490	4.41%
0233	283	2.55%
0333	39	0.35%
1111	39	0.35%
1112	230	2.07%
1113	142	1.28%
1122	401	3.61%
1123	586	5.28%
1133	137	1.23%
1222	248	2.23%
1223	586	5.28%
1233	324	2.92%
1333	49	0.44%
2222	44	0.40%
2223	140	1.26%
2233	140	1.26%
2333	40	0.36%
3333	7	0.06%

0000, 1111, 2222, 3333 are among the least drawn of all sets. So while you still have the same overall odds, history tells us playing numbers in the same decade rarely produces a winner. Yes, it happens........rarely.

BTW, my QP was 27, 30, 32, 33, +7. As you know, I couldn't stop dreaming how to spend all that cash!

G

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.

Stat$talker

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Aug 6, 2022, 4:45 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Aug 6, 2022
I buy QP's now and then. My problem with them is sometimes I'll get a set of numbers that I wouldn't pick in my wildest dreams. And, yes, I am aware that EVERY set of numbers is part of the total possibilities. Still...

An example. Last week I bought a Tx 2 Step ticket. I used a playslip with 2 lines chosen. The first line line I checked the box for a QP. The second line I had a set of numbers I had chosen.

The QP numbers were...21-24-26-29 +13. Not happy. It's extremely rare for all 4 numbers to be the same decade.

That the chances one takes with a QP.

Edit: As it turned out, neither line produced a win.

"That the chances one takes with a QP. "

Hell,..Tell us somthin that Ole Stat$talker'z ain't been tellin ya faa-eeevah

Only Probability Math will render Best resultz.. But YOU ain't worried, cauze you got STOCK in Scientific Gamez , or whooeeevah makez dat cheatin Lottery Software..

-Stat$talker

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
PrisonerSix

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Aug 6, 2022, 5:14 pm

Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Aug 6, 2022
I agree. Another problem for some is when you buy multiple lines of QPs and you get repeated bonus ball numbers, when you prefer to have greater coverage instead.

I'll never not be curious if a jackpot winner won with QPs or came up with the winning numbers on their own. But I'm always more curious about how many tickets they bought for the drawing. Was it a single? $50 worth?

I find that happens when I buy multiple lines of quickpicks that not only bonus numbers, but there are repeats of other numbers too. I think if you're going to buy multiple lines of quickpicks, it's good to pick your own numbers so more numbers of the matrix are covered increasing the chance of matching something.

I few years ago, I did an experiment using Louisiana Lotto in which I played two lines, one a set of of numbers I picked and played over and over, and one quickpick. Over the course of the drawings, I found the random quickpick actually had a slight edge over playing the same set of numbers every drawing(average number of balls matched 0.714 for the self pick and 0.971 for the quickpick). None of the drawings with the numbers I picked matched the minimum 3 to win a prize, but one quickpick matched 3 and won $3.00 and another matched 4 and won me $50.00. This was over a course of 70 drawings.

I also did a similar study on Powerball and Megamillions over a course of 20 drawings and here is what I found.
On Powerball with the set of numbers I played over and over, only 15% matched one number and 5%(1 draw) matched the Powerball. Most of the tickets didn't match any numbers at all. For the quickpicks, 40% matched one number and 10%(2 draws) matched the Powerball.

For MegaMillions, the numbers I picked and played each drawing, 20% of them matched at least one number(one matched 2) and none matched the MegaBall. For the quickpicks, 35% of them matched at least one number(2 draws matched 2 numbers) and 5%(1 draw) matched the MegaBall.

The differences are not that big, but it does look like the quickpicks have a slight edge.

Not sure what to think of this, but it is interesting to say the least.

Prisoner Six

"I am not a number, I am a free man!"
rcbbuckeye

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Aug 6, 2022, 6:00 pm

It is a fact that approximately 70% of people buy QP's, and approximately 70% of jackpot winners are QP's. Hand in hand. Personally, I play mostly my own picks, usually from LP's RNG. But, I pick number sets based on certain criteria. Then, sometimes, like last week, I'll kick in a QP also.

When you're playing MM or PB, it probably doesn't any difference (like Coin Toss says) because of the crazy odds of the games.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
garyo1954

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Aug 6, 2022, 6:02 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Aug 6, 2022
"That the chances one takes with a QP. "

Hell,..Tell us somthin that Ole Stat$talker'z ain't been tellin ya faa-eeevah

Only Probability Math will render Best resultz.. But YOU ain't worried, cauze you got STOCK in Scientific Gamez , or whooeeevah makez dat cheatin Lottery Software..

-Stat$talker

Calm down. You'll never convince Jack Whittaker (buys a hundred tickets at a deli and wins $300+ million) or the thousands of others who have won jackpots with a QP that they wasted their money. I'd be ecstatic to waste my money like that.

So, you either agree anything can happen in a single draw ( ) check here

or,

You don't agree anything can happen in a single draw ( ) check here

For 99.9999% of the people it wouldn't matter if they won with a QP or self-pick numbers.

G

I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
Stack47

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Aug 6, 2022, 7:12 pm

Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Aug 6, 2022
I agree. Another problem for some is when you buy multiple lines of QPs and you get repeated bonus ball numbers, when you prefer to have greater coverage instead.

I'll never not be curious if a jackpot winner won with QPs or came up with the winning numbers on their own. But I'm always more curious about how many tickets they bought for the drawing. Was it a single? $50 worth?

When MM was a 5/56 + 46 game and $1 a ticket, we had a similar discussion and RJOH proposed a test with him using a 46 line 2 if 5 of 56 abbreviated wheel using all 46 bonus numbers. Another poster used 46 QPs and while neither showed a profit because both had under $10 in "winnings", the QPs won a buck or two more.

"you get repeated bonus ball numbers"

The poster didn't purchase QPs but used a random combination generated he found on the Internet and their QPs used all but two of the 46 bonus numbers. Actually purchasing 46 QPs would create a more accurate test. Every once in a while I'll purchase five Cash Ball 225 QPs (4/35 + 1/25) and usually two of the five bonus numbers are the same. I didn't purchase 46 QPs to prove there should be more duplicate bonus numbers but statistically there should be more than two.

Some state lotteries allow by using a play slip to have QPs for the five numbers and self pick the bonus numbers or vice versa. With $2 a ticket using all the bonus numbers still costs $50 without any 2 if 5 guarantee.

"When will we ever learn?"
Stack47

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Aug 6, 2022, 7:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Aug 6, 2022
I buy QP's now and then. My problem with them is sometimes I'll get a set of numbers that I wouldn't pick in my wildest dreams. And, yes, I am aware that EVERY set of numbers is part of the total possibilities. Still...

An example. Last week I bought a Tx 2 Step ticket. I used a playslip with 2 lines chosen. The first line line I checked the box for a QP. The second line I had a set of numbers I had chosen.

The QP numbers were...21-24-26-29 +13. Not happy. It's extremely rare for all 4 numbers to be the same decade.

That the chances one takes with a QP.

Edit: As it turned out, neither line produced a win.

One advantage with purchasing QPs is if you win a small prize, the clerk usually pays you and keeps the ticket. If the tickets are losers, they usually go into "file 13". Unless there is some unique about a QP like in your example, I won't remember the numbers and can't say "I played that same combo for years" when it hits right after I stopped playing it.

And that "70%" probably more applies to the first few jackpots after a win. If that figure was correct over 105 million MM tickets sold for the $1.28 billion drawing were self picks. That means players accurately filled out 21 million play slips.

"When will we ever learn?"
MsBee18

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Aug 7, 2022, 12:23 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Aug 6, 2022
When MM was a 5/56 + 46 game and $1 a ticket, we had a similar discussion and RJOH proposed a test with him using a 46 line 2 if 5 of 56 abbreviated wheel using all 46 bonus numbers. Another poster used 46 QPs and while neither showed a profit because both had under $10 in "winnings", the QPs won a buck or two more.

"you get repeated bonus ball numbers"

The poster didn't purchase QPs but used a random combination generated he found on the Internet and their QPs used all but two of the 46 bonus numbers. Actually purchasing 46 QPs would create a more accurate test. Every once in a while I'll purchase five Cash Ball 225 QPs (4/35 + 1/25) and usually two of the five bonus numbers are the same. I didn't purchase 46 QPs to prove there should be more duplicate bonus numbers but statistically there should be more than two.

Some state lotteries allow by using a play slip to have QPs for the five numbers and self pick the bonus numbers or vice versa. With $2 a ticket using all the bonus numbers still costs $50 without any 2 if 5 guarantee.

Translator please
MsBee18

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Aug 7, 2022, 12:27 am

Self picks you are waiting on your numbers to hit. QP's you are literally chasing numbers. I do see value in determining if the sole winner played a QP or self pick.

rcbbuckeye

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Aug 7, 2022, 9:24 am

On the TX Lottery website they show whether a winning jackpot ticket was a QP or SP on in-state games, and PB and MM in-state grand prize and second prize winners. Interesting info.

Prize Level	Texas Retailer	Texas Retailer Address	Texas Retailer City	Texas Retailer Zip Code	Quick Pick	Prize Amount
5 of 5	ELAM FOOD MART	12300 ELAM RD	BALCH SPRINGS	75180	Yes / Yes	$1 Million

PB second prize on 6/27.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

Stack47

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Aug 7, 2022, 9:12 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MsBee18 on Aug 7, 2022
Self picks you are waiting on your numbers to hit. QP's you are literally chasing numbers. I do see value in determining if the sole winner played a QP or self pick.

Many more QPs are sold than self picks. For the July 29 MM drawing 350 million tickets were sold and two drawings later on August 5, 12 million tickets were sold. It doesn't look like the people purchasing the 338 million more tickets were interested in waiting even one more drawing. Nothing wrong about either picking numbers trying to beat over 300 million to 1 odds 104 drawings a year or buying a QP every once in awhile.

When a player fills out a play slip the tickets are defined as self picks. And probably the players waiting also bought a couple QPs. Even if the winner had a system, we'll probably never know because they will claim anonymously. What is that value of knowing whether the winning ticket was a self pick or a QP?

"When will we ever learn?"

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