PART 2A - What Knobs I'm Tweaking In My "Optimization"
I tasked myself with finding a "semi-reliable" method of determining a VTRAC that is likely to hit at least once in the next 7 draws. I'm in the process of running an Optimization Macro in Excel using several parameters that I will discuss below. The premise here is that there may be an optimal combination of these parameters that maximizes box hits in a 7 draw window, and hopefully results in profit over the long term. I'm happy to share this Excel file if someone can point me to a file hosting service.
So . . . here are rhe 3 "knobs" I'm turning in my Optimization Macro:
The first parameter is the historical draw window, designated as PPL (why PPL? Long story!). This is simply how far back in time I go when doing an accounting of all VTRAC Pairs. My starting point is 7 days.
The PPL is used to generate a list, sorted left to right by high frequency to low frequency, of all Box VTRAC Pairs that have come out in the last PPL draws. I only want to use the higher frequency end of this list and discard the rest, and I use the parameter VPR to do so. My starting point is 5, which indicates I only want to use the top 5 most frequent pairs and discard the rest.
The last "knob" is VFR. I generate a list of "Hot" VTRAC numbers, and similar to above, VFR is used to designate the Hottest VTRACS to keep while discarding the rest. My starting point is 12, which indicates I am only using the 12 hottest VTRACS.
Need to pause here to address a few details:
1) When sorting high frequency to low frequency, or hot to cold, if there's a tie, the lower VTRAC pair or number wins. For example, if the top 5 VTRAC Pairs and frequencies are as follows:
11 (3)
01 (3)
34 (2)
13 (2)
33 (1)
The sort order would be 01 11 13 34 33
2) How I determine the hot to cold VTRAC listing is based solely on how many draws since a VTRAC last hit, versus the median draws out for that VTRAC. I can provide a detailed example if needed, didn't want to include it here to confuse the matter.
OK . . . will review what I do with the above parameters in my next installment.