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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 4, 2021, 10:49 am

2021-03-04: Last 765 draws of Cash4Life showing hot and cold trends per C4L ball. The left most data point is the number of times drawn in the first 281 draws. The right most data point is the number of times drawn in the last 281 draws. (The expected number of one-element samplings needed to collect all 60 objects is 281.)

Source: https://imgur.com/a/QdNzav2
GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 27, 2021, 10:57 am

2021-03-27: 60 columns, number 1 on the left, number 60 on the right

789 rows, first 281 draws shown at the bottom, last 281 draws shown on the top row

red = hot, blue = cold

visualization of what is hot becomes cold, and vice verse

any steady state in the color indicates it is neither hotter or colder in that range

(The expected number of one-element samplings needed to collect all 60 objects is 281.)

Another way to look at the GIF from 2021-03-04, except this has new data from the 5th to 26th
GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 30, 2021, 7:51 pm
Per the GIF and the hot-cold gradients posted earlier in this thread, here are my theories as illustrated below:
- Hot trends level out or begin to go cold.
- Middling trends can go either way.
- Cold trends level out or begin to get hot.
What I'll do is calculate a trend, then weight the numbers toward their theorized trajectories.

For tracking and metrics, I'll weight the numbers for odd in odd months, for even in even months.

This means Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov trend calculation will get:
- hot squiggly trend stays nominal, following the black arrow and staying flat (etc.)
- middling trend gets a +1
- cold trend gets a +1
And Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec trend calculation will get:
- hot trend gets a -1
- middle trend gets a -1
- cold trend stays nominal
Or, I could determine the trajectory of each number (patent pending), apply the number shown below, then simulate that's how many of each ball is in the "tumbler". It's easy enough to simulate a tumbler with any number of balls in a spreadsheet. Let's say that a number is trending hot. I could give it a weight of 4 on odd months, but a weight of 3 on even months.

Each adjustment is from a mean calculation that I came up with (patent pending), and the adjustment is an attempt to simulate the changing red to blue, or blue to red gradients as shown above.

Patent pending lol. You already know my sample size is cast in stone, cannot be changed. If I get this figured out, you'll have the entire spreadsheet method, no cost, no question.

Keep in mind that I don't try to calculate the 5 numbers most likely to hit. I try to calcluate the 5 numbers least likely to hit and wheel the rest according to some weight calculation. I have 9 versions of this thus far. This is revision 10 that I'm discussing today.

Early on the first day of each month, I'll post my last month's prediction statistics as calculated on the prediction board to see if this has any merit. I will continue this through 2021 then have a new method developed by 2022. I will post the metrics on May 1 of the April predictions.

What do you think?
GoogilyMoogily

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Apr 1, 2021, 7:42 pm
Unlucky-Kenny

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Apr 9, 2021, 5:31 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 27, 2021
2021-03-27: 60 columns, number 1 on the left, number 60 on the right

789 rows, first 281 draws shown at the bottom, last 281 draws shown on the top row

red = hot, blue = cold

visualization of what is hot becomes cold, and vice verse

any steady state in the color indicates it is neither hotter or colder in that range

(The expected number of one-element samplings needed to collect all 60 objects is 281.)

Another way to look at the GIF from 2021-03-04, except this has new data from the 5th to 26th

How did you make this color graph with the hot/cold - its really cool

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GoogilyMoogily

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Apr 10, 2021, 8:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by Unlucky-Kenny on Apr 9, 2021
How did you make this color graph with the hot/cold - its really cool

thanks

do a COUNTIF(range,criteria)

apply a color scale conditional format (blue=min=cold, white=50% percentile, red=max=hot)

shrink the text to font size 1 since you can't conditionally format text, only the cell background

same short column width for all columns

screenshot

easy enough to set up once then copy down a row of results per drawing

lots of cells to calculate and conditional format tho

it is the image that convinces me that in any non-pseudo random draw, the ebb and flow of hot and cold become a truth, not a theory

change the sample size = change the hot-cold-hot-cold flow

do this with enough sample sizes = find a locked in hot or cold number, so to speak (still working on this data intensive array of arrays within arrays)

same thing occurs in all random drawings

and i cannot think of any good analogies for this other than there are tides (you don't know the size of the moon), boats passing by create waves/mini-tides (you don't know the size or speed of the boat), and there are people swimming nearby

hahaha, such a strange analogy that simply says your waves and shoreline are always randomly changing (string theory lead in on the shoreline thing for dr san, paging dr san???)
GoogilyMoogily

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May 1, 2021, 9:53 am

April predictions leaned toward cold numbers by my method.

I'm keeping this metric and tracking as simple as possible, using the Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

Month Method Hit Ratio Picks Hits

April Lean toward cold 9.68% 640 62

I predict for Cash4Life, LottoAmerica, Lucky4Life, Megamillions, and Powerball. The metrics shown are using the same method for all 5 draw games, to even things out in that regard.

May predictions will lean toward hot numbers.

I suppose months with 28, 29, or 31 days will have wonky statistics. Oh well, good enough for govt work.
GoogilyMoogily

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May 29, 2021, 11:59 am

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Apr 1, 2021

May 28 hot-cold graph changes since the last graph of Apr 1. Makes me want to take something that looks like analog signal noise and do Fourier transforms and other things to it. Or make a MIDI tune out of it. Having fun with this.
GoogilyMoogily

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Jun 1, 2021, 8:00 am

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on May 1, 2021
April predictions leaned toward cold numbers by my method.

I'm keeping this metric and tracking as simple as possible, using the Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

Month Method Hit Ratio Picks Hits

April Lean toward cold 9.68% 640 62

I predict for Cash4Life, LottoAmerica, Lucky4Life, Megamillions, and Powerball. The metrics shown are using the same method for all 5 draw games, to even things out in that regard.

May predictions will lean toward hot numbers.

I suppose months with 28, 29, or 31 days will have wonky statistics. Oh well, good enough for govt work.

May predictions leaned toward hot numbers by my method.

I'm keeping this metric and tracking as simple as possible, using the Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

Month Method Hit Ratio Picks Hits

April Lean toward cold 9.68% 640 62

May Lean toward hot 9.52% 630 60

I predict for Cash4Life, LottoAmerica, Lucky4Life, Megamillions, and Powerball. The metrics shown are using the same method for all 5 draw games, to even things out in that regard.

June predictions will lean toward cold numbers.

I suppose months with 28, 29, or 31 days will have wonky statistics. Oh well, good enough for govt work.