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A Probable + EV Game? Need Help Confirming.

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Hello Everyone,

 

I am new here and was impressed at the level of statistical and probability analytics data that has been compiled here along with the programming and excel skills to utilize the data.

 

So first things first the game I am speaking about is not a lottery... I am in Ontario and I believe that under certain circumstances OLG pools is a +EV game when the amount wagered by the public + the number of events is a certain size.

 

I am sure many people may be aware of this here, but I am suprised at the limited amount of people that I have run into that have approached this +EV opportunity from a statistical/probability stand point...

 

The Pools Game where you pay $5 and try to predict all the winners of a list of event has been attacked by mostly sports gambling fans and their success made OLG limit plays to $100 per person and reduce the Pool Percentage amount given to the Winners I believe from 60% to below 40%.

 

Now the reason why this Game has even the possibility of being +EV is the fact that other players picking unlikely combinations actually works in your favour.

 

Take an event like: New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Vegas provides us with the statistical/probability to a terrifyingly accurate degree: 70% NE 30% TB

But it's been found that the Public when choosing the outcome picks the Patriots 90% of the time.

 

This can and has been exploited. Also items like V wins in Tie Scenerios (Soccer)can also be exploited to a  degree.

 

The winning amounts are disproportionately higher for outcomes where "Public Favourites lose"

 

Also because the Winnings are only distributed to perfect tickets and when none are available to 1 wrong tickets , playing more tickets is favourable

 

Lastly and the biggest evidence for +EV a very large amount of events have paid out more than the cost to play all possible combinations. 11 Event Cards that have

 

2^11 outcomes = 2,048 x $5 = $10,240 cost with payouts as high as $50,000

 

Before I dive deeper into my thoughts on the subject I would first like to see who here is familiar with the game/topic.

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<Moved to Mathematics forum>

Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

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In response to Damaster87

Im guessing no one is interested in this?

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Hello and welcome!

I'm not sure about Vegas odds and sports odds. I've never delved into any of that. I know there is a way that some do it. Following stats for whatever they are betting on. Billy Beane did similar with building the A's years ago and everyone thought he was nuts. He built a winning team with low pay though.

With sports, I think "favor" plays a bigger part when it comes to betting. Then there are those that have an idea of what is going on and actually follow the teams that can make a better bet. Vegas and the big bet takers know what is going on and how to make the dollars come in. They've put the work into knowing what to do to get the most money in their pockets.

Just hang in there. There are some large and capable brains on here that can and will get with you on this.

Take care, stay safe and best of luck!

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I will there's no rush... Vegas lines based on statistics have been extraordinarily accurate over a large sum of games.. 

 

if you take 1000 games where Vegas has said the favourite will win 70% of the time... After a 1,000 games it's very close to a 700/300 split. 

Now I'd like to use that for a Pools Style lottery game where regardless of the odds you just need to pick the winners on a given day night... and you are up against the other players not the house... 

 

the advantage is similar to picking numbers above 32 in lottery games because it's no ones month/day of birth...

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In response to Damaster87

I can also tell you that with the lottery games, I've seen that there are things that seem to just "line up" when a jackpot does come about on an inner look. Seen it many times. Not sure of why, but the numbers themselves do tend to compare favorably when a jackpot does get won. For the most part that is. I do not know if amount of bettors has anything to do with it or not, but can't see how it would other than the chance that most of or all the number combinations had been picked. But as far as most of the jackpots I've seen, there is something that goes on in the inner part that for whatever reason does just work.

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In response to Damaster87

Vegas hasn't made all the billions they have because they don't know what they are doing. They've put the work into knowing what the best bet is and what they can payout and still come way ahead. They have teams of people they pay a lot of money to to know what to set the odds on. They know some high rollers are going to play the long shots with a large bet because money is meaningless to them and they make a ton just off of those people. A lot of people are going to play long shots in hope of a big payday.

Sounds like a poker game I used to hold here at my house with some friends. The house always came out a winner.

It's just a matter of finding the players.

Best of luck to you!

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Not sure I follow you on the "inner look" comment... 

The advantage of picking numbers above 32 is in prizes that are split... numbers below 32 are chosen by players with much higher frequency than above... I've heard people say that a 123456 jackpot would be split by over 1,000 people... above 32 doesn't increase probability it increases Expected Value.. (Split prize with less people) 

in the game I'm talking about though Vegas says the probability is 70% win for a team if it's say the Patriots the public picks them at 85% or more giving you an advantage...of both expected value AND probability cause Vegas has shown they have the probability down to a science and it's accurate. 

So an example would be 10 games on a sheet... pick winners of all 10 and POT is split between all perfect tickets... when all the favs win the pot is small when all the underdogs win the pot is huge.. But the public selection bias works in your favour... 

 

there are only 1024 possible combinations. So at $5 a play it costs 5,048 to play all possible combos and win... and when there are upsets the pot can be 20,000 or more... plus all your losing  tickets contribute to the pot... Now using the Vegas probabilities I am almost 100% sure if you play the combos (if they were ranked from 1least possible to 1024 most possible... if you selected combos 150 - 700 because winning on combos 701 - 1024 is on decreasing pot size due to public selections.. 

I am confident this is A highly profitable game. 
just need a math guy to prove it in excel based on like a 1,000 prior POOL games... 

on NFL Sunday the card is sometimes 13 - 14 games and the payouts can be as high as 500,000

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