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Cruzincat

Maryland
United States
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May 19, 2014
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Jan 28, 2020, 11:51 am

The odds of winning Mega Millions versus Powerball are roughly the same, with Powerball being a minute bit better odds. This is for the jackpot, as I didn't look closely at the smaller pot odds.

When one game has a higher jackpot than the other, especially when it is Powerball, unless having an unlimited budget to buy lottery tickets, does it not make more sense to only buy the tickets in the game with the higher jackpot? Shouldn't potential Return of Investment(ROI) be a factor in your purchase?

If you buy two tickets in one game for one drawing, aren't your odds improved by a factor of two? Same for three or four? This is not to say that the improvement in odds with more tickets is an automatic way to win. The odds, if buying a thousand tickets, are still pretty bad.

Rather than buying one of each for a given drawing cycle, you would be better off buying two of the one game that has the biggest jackpot. Or just buy one of those plus use your second $2 to buy a Cash For Life ticket. Much better odds for that anyway.
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
United States
Member #200,642
September 1, 2019
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Jan 28, 2020, 1:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Cruzincat on Jan 28, 2020
The odds of winning Mega Millions versus Powerball are roughly the same, with Powerball being a minute bit better odds. This is for the jackpot, as I didn't look closely at the smaller pot odds.

When one game has a higher jackpot than the other, especially when it is Powerball, unless having an unlimited budget to buy lottery tickets, does it not make more sense to only buy the tickets in the game with the higher jackpot? Shouldn't potential Return of Investment(ROI) be a factor in your purchase?

If you buy two tickets in one game for one drawing, aren't your odds improved by a factor of two? Same for three or four? This is not to say that the improvement in odds with more tickets is an automatic way to win. The odds, if buying a thousand tickets, are still pretty bad.

Rather than buying one of each for a given drawing cycle, you would be better off buying two of the one game that has the biggest jackpot. Or just buy one of those plus use your second $2 to buy a Cash For Life ticket. Much better odds for that anyway.

If you buy QPs.. your odds are most likely the same as if you bought just 1...

They're also known as a"Lazy Bet"..

But if you you study the Stats of the game,.. you can raise or improve your odds alot... but that's not to say that you can't win with a QP...

-Stat$talker

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
gy65

United States
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March 9, 2006
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Jan 28, 2020, 2:42 pm

"I didn't look closely at the smaller pot odds"

ONLY around 1 in 12 million fantasy odds for a $1-5 million 5+0 PB or MM win. ALWAYS pay the extra dollar for the multiplier!

"Shouldn't potential Return of Investment(ROI) be a factor in your purchase?"

In a lottery context . . pretty much reflects you are delusional!
cottoneyedjoe

United States
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March 28, 2019
1,640 Posts
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Jan 28, 2020, 7:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Cruzincat on Jan 28, 2020
The odds of winning Mega Millions versus Powerball are roughly the same, with Powerball being a minute bit better odds. This is for the jackpot, as I didn't look closely at the smaller pot odds.

When one game has a higher jackpot than the other, especially when it is Powerball, unless having an unlimited budget to buy lottery tickets, does it not make more sense to only buy the tickets in the game with the higher jackpot? Shouldn't potential Return of Investment(ROI) be a factor in your purchase?

If you buy two tickets in one game for one drawing, aren't your odds improved by a factor of two? Same for three or four? This is not to say that the improvement in odds with more tickets is an automatic way to win. The odds, if buying a thousand tickets, are still pretty bad.

Rather than buying one of each for a given drawing cycle, you would be better off buying two of the one game that has the biggest jackpot. Or just buy one of those plus use your second $2 to buy a Cash For Life ticket. Much better odds for that anyway.

You are not wrong.

As for why people play both MM and PB when the jackpots are significantly different, many people are creatures of habit and superstition. You can attempt to show people the math that proves certain ways of playing have a higher expected return than others, but ultimately people are not guided solely by logic.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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Jan 29, 2020, 5:43 pm

"many people are creatures of habit and superstition."

And other lottery players have a gambling problem, and just can't pass up the chance to play no matter how much sense it would make.

And some others are morons, and will tell you that having two randomly selected tickets for a game where the winning numbers are drawn randomly somehow doesn't give you twice the chance of winning a shaving just one ticket. The math that should tell you that 2 in 300 million is twice the chance of 1 in a million is just a simple fraction, albeit with a larger denominator, and something you probably learned in elementary school.
cottoneyedjoe

United States
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March 28, 2019
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Jan 29, 2020, 6:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 29, 2020
"many people are creatures of habit and superstition."

And other lottery players have a gambling problem, and just can't pass up the chance to play no matter how much sense it would make.

And some others are morons, and will tell you that having two randomly selected tickets for a game where the winning numbers are drawn randomly somehow doesn't give you twice the chance of winning a shaving just one ticket. The math that should tell you that 2 in 300 million is twice the chance of 1 in a million is just a simple fraction, albeit with a larger denominator, and something you probably learned in elementary school.

I've spent my fair share of time explaining probability to people who are not good at math, but I wouldn't necessarily call them morons for not getting it. If they only buy one ticket because they think two tickets has the same odds of winning as one ticket, then they're not losing as much money as the gamblers who can do the math but take bad bets anyway. And the conspiracy theorists who don't play at all because they think it is 100% rigged aren't losing any money. There's a silver lining to not being the sharpest tool.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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Jan 31, 2020, 12:49 pm

I didn't say that everybody who doesn't understand probability is a moron. I just said that some of them are morons who will tell you that 2 tickets isn't better than 1.

If you want to look for anyone who matches that description you won't have to look very far.

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