How high will PB go?Prev Topic Next Topic

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How High do you predict before someone hits?

300 M

[ 6 ]

[ 20.0% ]

400 M

[ 9 ]

[ 30.0% ]

500 M

[ 3 ]

[ 10.0% ]

600 M

[ 2 ]

[ 6.7% ]

700 M

[ 2 ]

[ 6.7% ]

800 M

[ 2 ]

[ 6.7% ]

900 M

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

1 billion +

[ 6 ]

[ 20.0% ]

Total valid votes

[ 30 ]

Discarded votes

[ 0 ]

Cmoore50

Ohio
United States
Member #194,179
December 3, 2018
492 Posts
Offline

Jan 10, 2020, 7:27 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Jan 9, 2020
Stat$talker, you say you understand odds and probability, so here is some simple Powerball math for you, and any other conspiracy theorists out there, to chew on.

DATE JACKPOT TICKETS SOLD COVERAGE ON 292,201,338
11/06/19 $40M 9,808,532 3.36%
11/09/19 $50M 10,952,934 3.75%
11/13/19 $60M 9,653,788 3.30%
11/16/19 $70M 11,468,659 3.92%
11/20/19 $80M 10,362,403 3.55%
11/23/19 $90M 12,133,899 4.15%
11/27/19 $100M 12,991,538 4.45%
11/30/19 $110M 12,635,365 4.32%
12/04/19 $120M 12,495,867 4.28%
12/07/19 $130M 14,192,913 4.86%
12/11/19 $140M 13,237,112 4.53%
12/14/19 $150M 15,434,576 5.28%
12/18/19 $160M 14,175,783 4.85%
12/21/19 $171M 16,491,521 5.64%
12/25/19 $183M 17,300,095 5.92%
12/28/19 $200M 19,170,286 6.56%
01/01/20 $220M 20,319,594 6.95%
01/04/20 $237M 21,381,004 7.32%
01/08/20 $258M 20,715,540 7.09%
01/11/20 $277M ?????????? $$$$$

You still think they need to alter the winning numbers? Basic math says NO, they don't.

The coverage number is so low.its not even 10%. Wow!
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
Offline

Jan 10, 2020, 9:43 pm

"I'm sure with an at least $300,000,000 profit in 19 days"

I'm pretty sure you meant to say 19 drawings, and you're forgetting two things. One is that they have to pay out all of the lower tier prizes using money that you've listed as a profit. The other is that what they add to the advertised jackpot isn't the cash that a winner will actually get, so their cost for the jackpot isn't as much as you've listed. Every once in a while we get a result that departs significantly from probability (paying all 100+ 2nd place winners in the fortune cookie PB drawing, for example), but the long term average comes pretty close to the theoretical results suggested by probability. That means that what's put into the lower tier prize pool (about 35 cents from every ticket) is enough to pay all of the lower tier prizes. The cash jackpot is always the amount of cash actually available. The end result is that the profit (before expenses) is very close to the $1 per ticket that isn't used for funding prizes, so very close to 50% of total sales.

"Probability Math informs one of what's about to happen"

Not even close to being an accurate description of probability, but nobody who's paying attention thought you have a clue.

"The coverage number is so low.its not even 10%."

I presume you know that there are just over 292 million possible combinations, so they need to sell a hair over 29 million tickets. And even with paltry tickets sales of 29 million there are already enough repeated combinations in play (based on a purely random distribution) that the chance of a winner is only 9.5% instead of 10%. Especially when sales are low the regulars who play calendar numbers, patterns, multiples of 5 or 10, and so on mean that the actual chance of a winner is even less than what probability suggests. Actually covering 10% of combinations will take sales of about 31 million tickets, and the last time that happened was when PB reached $414 million 10 months ago.
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
Offline

Jan 11, 2020, 11:03 am

Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Jan 9, 2020
Stat$talker, you say you understand odds and probability, so here is some simple Powerball math for you, and any other conspiracy theorists out there, to chew on.

DATE JACKPOT TICKETS SOLD COVERAGE ON 292,201,338
11/06/19 $40M 9,808,532 3.36%
11/09/19 $50M 10,952,934 3.75%
11/13/19 $60M 9,653,788 3.30%
11/16/19 $70M 11,468,659 3.92%
11/20/19 $80M 10,362,403 3.55%
11/23/19 $90M 12,133,899 4.15%
11/27/19 $100M 12,991,538 4.45%
11/30/19 $110M 12,635,365 4.32%
12/04/19 $120M 12,495,867 4.28%
12/07/19 $130M 14,192,913 4.86%
12/11/19 $140M 13,237,112 4.53%
12/14/19 $150M 15,434,576 5.28%
12/18/19 $160M 14,175,783 4.85%
12/21/19 $171M 16,491,521 5.64%
12/25/19 $183M 17,300,095 5.92%
12/28/19 $200M 19,170,286 6.56%
01/01/20 $220M 20,319,594 6.95%
01/04/20 $237M 21,381,004 7.32%
01/08/20 $258M 20,715,540 7.09%
01/11/20 $277M ?????????? $$$$$

You still think they need to alter the winning numbers? Basic math says NO, they don't.

Best guess puts 2020-01-11 tickets sold at about 21,325,662.

Good Luck

The One Over None
I Know...
hearsetrax

United States
Member #52,343
May 21, 2007
3,790 Posts
Offline

Jan 16, 2020, 7:29 am

headed 4 $400 Million jejejeje
greatguy

Cali
United States
Member #198,164
May 13, 2019
107 Posts
Offline

Jan 18, 2020, 12:23 am

She says,"Honey what you doing tomorrow?"

"Stopping by the Store."

She says, "Can you pick up some Bread."

My Thinking- going to pick up 350 Million in Bread!

-Taxes.

Gg-Keep the Peace
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
United States
Member #200,642
September 1, 2019
4,155 Posts
Offline

Jan 19, 2020, 7:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by greatguy on Jan 18, 2020
She says,"Honey what you doing tomorrow?"

"Stopping by the Store."

She says, "Can you pick up some Bread."

My Thinking- going to pick up 350 Million in Bread!

-Taxes.

Gg-Keep the Peace

... Yep..!!.... All pun intended...!!!

and to the Women on this site.... Any Man that can or intends to cook like greatguy, is worth his weight, ... in GOLD...!

-Stat$talker

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
Droptop209

Newman, California
United States
Member #193,980
November 24, 2018
141 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2020, 3:53 pm

Good luck tonight, 2nd prize 5+0 in California is over 6 million dollars.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2020, 5:34 pm

And yet, a lot of people will continue to whine about how unfair the parimutuel payouts are.

If it rolls over the advertised jackpot will increase $36 million to 430, and the cash value will increase by $25 million. The last time PB got past 400 was almost a year ago and it increased 34 million from 414 to 448, but the cash value only increased $20.6 million. That makes the current increase comparable to a $47 million increase last March. I'll be glad to be wrong, but I suspect MUSL is being overly optimistic.
cottoneyedjoe

United States
Member #197,030
March 28, 2019
1,635 Posts
Offline

Jan 29, 2020, 7:39 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 29, 2020
And yet, a lot of people will continue to whine about how unfair the parimutuel payouts are.

If it rolls over the advertised jackpot will increase $36 million to 430, and the cash value will increase by $25 million. The last time PB got past 400 was almost a year ago and it increased 34 million from 414 to 448, but the cash value only increased $20.6 million. That makes the current increase comparable to a $47 million increase last March. I'll be glad to be wrong, but I suspect MUSL is being overly optimistic.

I have never seen anyone argue that pari-mutuel payouts are unfair -- p-m states pay out 50% of the take just as a fixed payout states do. Pari-mutuel payouts are simply annoying to many people because of their unpredictability, and people are entitled to be annoyed. Even if the 5+0 CA PB prize sometimes cracks 5+ million, it's often less than 1 million and much closer to 100K. On February 13, 2019 there were two California 5+0 winners and they each won less than 200K. You can bet they were griping that if they had purchased the same numbers up in Oregon or down in Arizona they'd be 5 times richer.
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2020, 8:03 am

Annuity $396,900,000.00
Cash $276,558,034.09

Never made it to $400 Million.

After tax

Annuity $270 to $300 Million
Cash $184 to $208 Million

Just gets to $300 Million

The One Over None
I Know...
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
17,730 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2020, 8:16 am

Well, whoever won it is pretty happy, as well as the 3 that won $1,000,000.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
United States
Member #200,642
September 1, 2019
4,155 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2020, 12:36 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Jan 30, 2020
Annuity $396,900,000.00
Cash $276,558,034.09

Never made it to $400 Million.

After tax

Annuity $270 to $300 Million
Cash $184 to $208 Million

Just gets to $300 Million

I posted "it wouldn't, if I could help it"...LOL...

and sure enough... BAMM !!.. As soon as I played it .. someone wins elsewhere...!!

They're running form the MATH..!!.. they'd rather some "unsuspecting smuck" ( garyo1954 term) win it , than someone with Math skills... because, if I can get their undivided attention with $20.... Imagine what I'd be able to do with a fraction of almost $400. Million?....!!

I'm just keepin it Real...

-Stat$talker

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
Offline

Jan 30, 2020, 2:21 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 30, 2020
I posted "it wouldn't, if I could help it"...LOL...

and sure enough... BAMM !!.. As soon as I played it .. someone wins elsewhere...!!

They're running form the MATH..!!.. they'd rather some "unsuspecting smuck" ( garyo1954 term) win it , than someone with Math skills... because, if I can get their undivided attention with $20.... Imagine what I'd be able to do with a fraction of almost $400. Million?....!!

I'm just keepin it Real...

-Stat$talker

Yeah, we wait till at least $1,000,000,000.00 to even consider thinking about possibly of maybe playing.

It's about 4 times the odds.

This last PB run saved us $500.00 if played like we wanted to play at 10 lines per game.

That would be $750.00 if we got power played.

But, here we go again, waiting...

The One Over None
I Know...

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