United States
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December 14, 2019
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Jan 8, 2020
What difference does it make if your ticket number is one away from the winner? They pick a ticket at random to win, and you either have that ticket number or you don't. It makes no difference whether yours is one away, two away, or 12,562 away. You either WIN or you LOSE, period, end of story.
Consider this.... suppose you buy a $20 scratch-off ticket, you go home and scratch it off, and you see that you've lost (you should still scan it next time you're at the store just to make sure). The next person, or the previous person, who bought a $20 scratch-off from that same roll at the same store you were at won the top prize (say $1 million). That's the same thing as holding a raffle ticket that's "one off". Your scratch-off ticket still lost just like your raffle ticket lost. The difference, though, is that you wouldn't know that you bought a $20 scratch-off that was just one ticket away from the million dollar prize.
Clearly most people who play the PA raffle are not so obsessed with this or sales would crash and the state would have to change the way they assign numbers to please illogical people. The way to do that would be to assign a ticket number from 1 to 100 billion with plenty of space between assigned numbers. Then there is no chance of being one away, or even close to it, from the winning number. The probability of winning is exactly the same (1 in 125,000), so what would be the point?
If I knew my losing $20 scratcher was attached to a winner in the roll I certainly would be miffed. Good thing I don't buy $20 scratchers.
Most people are not emotionless automatons. I know someone who won the 3+1 Powerball prize and his two wrong numbers were one away from the right numbers. A quick pick. He was down for weeks. I'd say these kinds of feelings are common and natural. I get the OP.
New Mexico United States
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January 29, 2010
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Jan 8, 2020
What difference does it make if your ticket number is one away from the winner? They pick a ticket at random to win, and you either have that ticket number or you don't. It makes no difference whether yours is one away, two away, or 12,562 away. You either WIN or you LOSE, period, end of story.
Consider this.... suppose you buy a $20 scratch-off ticket, you go home and scratch it off, and you see that you've lost (you should still scan it next time you're at the store just to make sure). The next person, or the previous person, who bought a $20 scratch-off from that same roll at the same store you were at won the top prize (say $1 million). That's the same thing as holding a raffle ticket that's "one off". Your scratch-off ticket still lost just like your raffle ticket lost. The difference, though, is that you wouldn't know that you bought a $20 scratch-off that was just one ticket away from the million dollar prize.
Clearly most people who play the PA raffle are not so obsessed with this or sales would crash and the state would have to change the way they assign numbers to please illogical people. The way to do that would be to assign a ticket number from 1 to 100 billion with plenty of space between assigned numbers. Then there is no chance of being one away, or even close to it, from the winning number. The probability of winning is exactly the same (1 in 125,000), so what would be the point?
Florida - West Coast United States
Member #92,605
June 10, 2010
6,572 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Jan 8, 2020
What difference does it make if your ticket number is one away from the winner? They pick a ticket at random to win, and you either have that ticket number or you don't. It makes no difference whether yours is one away, two away, or 12,562 away. You either WIN or you LOSE, period, end of story.
Consider this.... suppose you buy a $20 scratch-off ticket, you go home and scratch it off, and you see that you've lost (you should still scan it next time you're at the store just to make sure). The next person, or the previous person, who bought a $20 scratch-off from that same roll at the same store you were at won the top prize (say $1 million). That's the same thing as holding a raffle ticket that's "one off". Your scratch-off ticket still lost just like your raffle ticket lost. The difference, though, is that you wouldn't know that you bought a $20 scratch-off that was just one ticket away from the million dollar prize.
Clearly most people who play the PA raffle are not so obsessed with this or sales would crash and the state would have to change the way they assign numbers to please illogical people. The way to do that would be to assign a ticket number from 1 to 100 billion with plenty of space between assigned numbers. Then there is no chance of being one away, or even close to it, from the winning number. The probability of winning is exactly the same (1 in 125,000), so what would be the point?
You're correct, most people who play the PA raffle aren't concerned/obsessed with getting a one off, but that's only because they don't realize what could happen. I started this thread to simply point out that there is a hidden danger with playing the raffle. But knowing about that hidden danger wasn't enough stop me from playing it. That's because I know that the odds of it actually happening to me were slim to none.
But if I was someone who did NOT win one million dollars last Saturday night because I missed it by one digit, I'd still be depressed. I think it's a pretty safe bet that if it happened to you, you'd never be able to forget it for the rest of your life. G5
Reno, NV United States
Member #173,296
February 25, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by db101 on Jan 8, 2020
If I knew my losing $20 scratcher was attached to a winner in the roll I certainly would be miffed. Good thing I don't buy $20 scratchers.
Most people are not emotionless automatons. I know someone who won the 3+1 Powerball prize and his two wrong numbers were one away from the right numbers. A quick pick. He was down for weeks. I'd say these kinds of feelings are common and natural. I get the OP.
That's my point, that you don't know that your losing scratch-off ticket was attached to a jackpot winner. The end result is the same, though... you lost.
The player whose ticket was "one off" (a ludicrous concept because you either match the number or you don't, it's black and white) and was depressed for weeks should see a therapist. That is a ridiculous thing to be upset over.
Reno, NV United States
Member #173,296
February 25, 2016
337 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Jan 8, 2020
You're correct, most people who play the PA raffle aren't concerned/obsessed with getting a one off, but that's only because they don't realize what could happen. I started this thread to simply point out that there is a hidden danger with playing the raffle. But knowing about that hidden danger wasn't enough stop me from playing it. That's because I know that the odds of it actually happening to me were slim to none.
But if I was someone who did NOT win one million dollars last Saturday night because I missed it by one digit, I'd still be depressed. I think it's a pretty safe bet that if it happened to you, you'd never be able to forget it for the rest of your life. G5
I don't understand why are you calling this a "hidden danger". That's simply not true. You either win or you lose. The end. If it's "dangerous" to be one off then either don't play or learn some logic so this sort of thing doesn't make you upset.
If it happened to me, it would not affect me in the slightest because I know the game works. If my ticket number is a winner, I win. If my ticket number is not a winner, I lose. There are only two outcomes, win or lose. There is no "danger" to it at all. The digits that make up a ticket number are arbitrary and meaningless.
Sometimes when I play video poker I end up with four cards of a royal flush. One time I held just a Q and ended up with TJQK5 with TJQK the same suit... a "one off". I see that and just say "oh well" and go on to the next hand.