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Definitively proving better odds on straight picks

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Long time lurker, blah blah blah. :) Ok, say I was writing my own lottery software and I was to somehow prove I could almost always get everyone a 25-30% improvement in odds over pure random/auto-lotto on any straight Pick 4 lottery, for example. Would that be worth anything to anyone, or would consistently 25-30% better odds not be enough to make it interesting?

Has anyone actually been able to prove to others they're getting better odds than randomly picking numbers? And if so, can your improvement in odds be calculated? And if so, how do you know

jackpotismine's avatar - kanji for_peace.jpg
In response to CrazyDewd

Oh boy. Here comes someone trying to sell you something.Crazy

hearsetrax's avatar - alien on_computer.jpg
In response to jackpotismine

Got to admire thar persistence😏

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THANK YOU! I wasn't sure what to expect after my first 'real' post, but I didn't expect only two, and one that was definitely not positive. I'm not offended though, after all I'm a noob. I've only been studying my state's lottery numbers for a year. You've both apparently have been over ten!

jackpotismine: "Oh boy. Here comes someone trying to sell you something."

I *wish* I had something *good* to sell! But I assure you, I have nothing, yet anyway. :/ I'm just a programmer who has been snared by the sexy temptress that is the lottery. Whenever I try to tell my friends that I'm trying to improve my odds, they tell me it's impossible. I was surprised when I came here and I get the same reaction. It's so telling, you have NO IDEA.

Just from these two replies, and no one else so far, tells me that proving even 25% better odds is unheard of. I'm very surprised about that, because I assumed that was too low to even bother. So what you both are saying is that if I were to release 2500 Pick 4 draws that should *not* be picked before each of my state's Pick 4 lottery draws and do that for 100+ official state draws (meaning for month's), that many on here would be extremely impressed? Am I understanding that right?

Being a newbie here, a 25% improvement in odds didn't impress me very much. But you've both been on here for over 10 years! I have a big respect for those who have been studying it 10 times longer than I have. *bow*

So are you two saying, that if I were to just prove a 25% improvement on Pick 4 for my U.S. state, by publicly releasing 2500 draws a day (out of 10,000 possible) that don't show up for the next Pick 4 draw, and do it 99%+ of the time, that you would be extremely impressed? Because I was thinking I'd have to do at least 50% better odds to get any attention. After all, even 50% improvement would only be a 1:5000 chance instead of 1:10000, if one just purchased a single lottery ticket for one draw. 5000:1 is only twice as better than 'random' (if quick-picks are truly random), but still not great odds. But if two experienced veterans like you on here say that even proving 25% better odds is unheard of, then *I'm* the one who's floored. What if I could do the same with 5/39 pr 6/49? Would that also be impressive or would I need to prove better odds than 25%?

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hearsetrax: "Got to admire thar persistence"

Thank you for that, I'm taking that as a positive comment. :)
You've both given me more incentive to work on this. THANK YOU. I just hope others chime in on this and give their opinion!

To be honest, I've been reading many other's programmer's posts who explain how their system works, but I have a hard time following them. But then, I am very new to the "game".

KY Floyd's avatar - lysol avatar.jpg

What does "25-30% improvement in odds" mean? Changing the odds of wining pick 3 from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 700 to 750?  I suppose that spending $700 to $750 to win $500 is better than spending $1000 to win $500, but I can't see why anyone would spend money for that sort of "improvement".

Of course the bigger problem is that predicting the results of a random process isn't any easier than building a perpetual motion machine.

garyo1954's avatar - garyo
In response to CrazyDewd

Depends on what you mean by "an actual 25-30% improvement."

Is this improvement real dollars or is it just a strategy based on the reduction of numbers?
Is this improvement for EVER SINGLE DRAW or based on playing at an optimum time?

If a person had such a system the only reason he/she would have for proving it to others would be "bragging rights." More often when people have something that works, they use it until it doesn't work without that need.

Theoretically, you may be able to prove an improvement with an extended period of a baseline at X%, and comparing it to an extended period of a baseline at (X+25)%. You need the extended periods to show these are not just temporary conditions. But you're still dealing with basic suppositions that 1) the conditions did not change, and 2) conditions will not change.

I notice you use the qualifier, "...in odds over pure/auto-lotto on any STRAIGHT Pick 4 lottery."

Does that mean you are only claiming a 25-30% improvement in picking straights in a Pick 4?

The way I see it, claiming to improve someone's game by 1 win every 4 draws would get some attention, but claiming to improve their odds of winning doesn't have the same affect.

G

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In response to KY Floyd

Hi! Wow, you've been on these forums for over 13 years. That's amazing. Nice to hear from someone so close, if you're in KY, as I'm in Ohio.

Yes, you have it right. On a Pick 3, a 25% improvement would only become a 1:750 as opposed to the 1:1000 one would get using 'quick-picks' or random picks.

I agree, I can't see anyone spending money on such an improvement. I thought maybe though, if one had a free website (as opposed to just a Windows app), where people could get 25% better provable "picks" than 1:1000, that they'd at least use it for free. The monetization there would be ads. Now, if not many would be interested in that, it wouldn't be worth it to do on a commercial basis, even if it's free for public use. Personally, I haven't seen a site that claims and proves even a 25% improvement. And to prove that, one would need to release 2500 numbers/draws before each official Pick 4 draw that aren't drawn and keep them public, and do it very consistently. You can't be perfect, but I'd say if you were right about that 97-99% of the time, it would at least be a 20% improvement. I know, not very much.

I mostly agree with your statement about predicting random processes being like creating a perpetual motion machine. That means you're trying to make a perfect machine, that doesn't need external energy to keep it going. What I'm taking about isn't akin to perpetual though, just long-running. To me the equivalent of a perpetual motion machine in lottery terms, would be like being able to get one a 1:1 or even a 1:10 chance in a Pick 3, which is normally 1:1000. I believe that's impossible. That would be a 99.x% improvement. I'm not talking about trying to do the holy grail, just a provable 25% improvement, that's all.

If 25% isn't interesting to many, for *free*, then I have the answer I was looking for! Apparently many here have already been able to do that and I'm really just ignorant for lack of experience, or IQ. :)

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In response to garyo1954

Yes, I'm only talking about a reduction in the pool of numbers one chooses from from 10000 to 7500 in a Pick 4, definitely not a "prediction", at least not yet. Again, I've only been playing with lotteries as a programmer for a year and only in my spare time, although I've spent too much time already! It's an addiction!

I  mean the ability to improve "odds" by 25% for most every draw, not just over time or an average over many official state draws. This is just with using "reduction filters", as I've seen them called, which is a great term!

So what you're saying is that even if someone could publish & rule out 2500 Pick 4 numbers/draws that almost always doesn't come up in the next official state Pick 4 draw, it wouldn't be worth anything more than just "bragging rights", is that right? I'm not arguing, I just want to understand and learn from the truly experienced. And , you've been on here for 15 years? I'm not worthy, I'm not worthy! (Wayne's World reference)

BTW, I mostly started playing with the lottery numbers to improve my odds on the Ohio Classic 6/49, because I thought, "Well, if I'm going to play anyway, it would be worth it to spend some time to at least get 25% better odds than purely random/auto-lotto. That's better than what most get, which is 'pure random' quick-pick auto-lotto." And then I fell down this rabbit hole with the 5/39 and most recently the Pick 4, because it's so much simpler and easy to back-test.

Thanks!

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im interested...   thanks in advance

garyo1954's avatar - garyo
In response to CrazyDewd

When you consider how many people already use filters to reduce their plays you would be one among many for Pick 3/Pick 4.

Jackpot games are a different animal. Depending on how you break the game down there are many(?)/a number(?)/a bunch(?) of ways to reduce the play set (numbers in play).

Some of us do work with the 5 ball games, but not much is posted since the Pick 4/Pick 3 games are what most people are curious about.

G



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In response to CrazyDewd

It depends on what you mean by "odds improvement" because as long as ten balls numbered from 1 to 0 are drawn from 3 or 4 machines, the odds against any one straight combo being drawn are always 999 to 1 and 9999 to 1. In either game the payoffs for one straight combo can be increased by simply betting more on it. 

The KY pick-3 game pays $600 to $1 so getting a 25% to 30% reduction makes more sense for that game.

cottoneyedjoe's avatar - cuonvFT
In response to CrazyDewd

If you have a system or program that predicts results better than random and you want the world to see your results and admire you, click on the predictions tab and post your predictions. There is a leaderboard of sorts. As far as proof goes, and assuming you are telling the truth about your program, your public prediction stats will show that you consistently win more than $0.50 per $1 wagered, which is the baseline for random guessing in a typical lottery where the state takes a 50% cut.

Does the praise and approval of posters here really matter? Who cares what we think, it's your time and money on the line. I think if a person truly has a system that beats the odds the last thing they should do is publicly share how it works or even talk about it at all. Refine it into something that turns a profit rather than just reducing losses, then get all the validation you need from your bank statement.

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Hello  My name is Iggerine. I started running the numbers down the beginning of August 2019. I dont use a program. I have invested about $100 roughly speaking. I have won $600. I have missed a few because I am not very good at picking the winners. I do see them in my rundown after the drawings however. As I stated I am very new to this. I have hit the pick four straight about 4 times in the past 10 years just using my 2 pet numbers. So I am pretty sure that my system once I have mastered it will be pretty lucrative.

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In response to garyo1954

If a person had such a system the only reason he/she would have for proving it to others would be "bragging rights." More often when people have something that works, they use it until it doesn't work without that need.

I couldn't agree with you more. When any gambler develops even a semi-consistent winning method for ANY for of winning money, they're not gonna just throw it out there for the whole world to see and capitalize on...and, subsequently, render the demise of the game itself. In this case, due to an over abundance of winners. Lotteries have already calculated a +/- ratio of daily winners which yields a consistent profit. It's built in because these people know what they're doing. Every game has its very,very low percentage of players that have advanced their methods and greatly improved their systems to where they generate profits daily, and, on every draw. It's real. However, this is also accounted for because the percentage of these winners is, as I've stated, very low...and they don't talk or compromise their method(s). I can appreciate anyone trying to help others learn something but, anyone posting systems and numbers falls directly in to the mainstream of daily winners which poses no threat. 

*For example: If a player decided to successfully demonstrate how they can win $1K in profit on every Pick 4 draw, everyone on this site would be all over it...and playing it! If onlookers didn't live in the same state as the system poster, and only play state side, they'd surely move to online where they could that state...or the state that the poster plays. I can guarantee that. Everyone wants and is looking for MONEY. This is a bitter truth but, its still the truth. Gotta have more losers than winners. 

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