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AllenB

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Oct 28, 2015, 12:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Oct 28, 2015
So looking at the box only at $110.00 per game wins $160.00.

The actual pay is $150.00 for a box win.

Doing the math for the box version in Florida results in small profit every month since January till now.

90,000 won (150 X 600 draws)

-66,000 cost (110 X 600 draws)

-18,700 loss due to doubles and triples, 170 total (110 X 170= 18,700)

-2,860 loss due to lowest digit above 4, 26 total (110 X 26=2,860)

Net profit $2,440 for the whole 10 months.

Monthly profit of 244.00.. this is at 1 dollar bets.

After a few months I would eventually work my way up to 2 dollar bets, then 3.00 bets..etc...all the way to the max which would yield about 2,440 bucks a month in net profit.

I think I'll start out this way, then over the years I will switch to straight betting and the ultimate goal of 14 grand a month.

OK maybe I should go back to sleep. I must be wrong; but I still think the numbers don't lie. For Florida Combined since Jan 1, 2015 the hit percent for the 110 is 65.01%. At $150 per box you would need a 73.3% hit percentage just to break even.
AllenB

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Oct 28, 2015, 12:26 pm

Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Oct 28, 2015
OK maybe I should go back to sleep. I must be wrong; but I still think the numbers don't lie. For Florida Combined since Jan 1, 2015 the hit percent for the 110 is 65.01%. At $150 per box you would need a 73.3% hit percentage just to break even.

I'm not saying this system has no merit; just, that it is not a slam dunk. You are going to have to not play on the right days to win at this. So you are back at predicting like the rest of us. Your system looks like as good of a trend spotter any any I have seen; but, it still can't bridge the random Gap.
Lildarryl

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Oct 28, 2015, 1:35 pm

ok people. This is just basis of a system. you don't have to play every draw.

my name Lil Darryl you got some Milk
pepper1

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Oct 28, 2015, 3:37 pm

I will be trying this if it work great if not it still great.
Stack47

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Oct 28, 2015, 3:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Oct 28, 2015
I did make a mistake on the cost of the doubles. I listed originally as 17,820, when in fact it's actually 112,200 (includes triples). But the good news is that eventually, after about a year or so, the incremental increase of the bets from .25 to 10.00 per number, per draw will leave me with a nice profit every month. It will take patience and some time, but in the end it will be all worth it.

Here are my findings. Mid and eve combined, tally of doubles and triples.

Jan-16

Feb-17

Mar-25

Apr-12

May-16

Jun-22

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sept-17

Oct-11

Total-170 doubles and triples.

Now there is absolutely no speculation about the tally of numbers that are higher than 4, tally of the doubles and triples.

540,000-won (900 X 600=540,000)

-396,000-cost (660 X 600=396,000)

-112,200-lost in doubles and triples (170 X 660=112,200)

- 17,160-lost due to 26 numbers with the lowest digit above 4 (26 X 660=17,160)

= 14,640- net profit for the last 10 months

1,460 net profit a month.

Ok so I was way off, but this only means I'll have to eventually go to the max bet of 10 bucks per number which would cost 6,600 bucks per draw (660 X 10.00 bets), but the payoff would be 14,640 X 10=146,400 net profit in 10 months.

That would come out to 14,640 net profit every month since January.

Of course this will take a year or so to work up to, maybe more than a year, but 14 grand a month even after 3 years to work up to is very nice.

"Now there is absolutely no speculation about the tally of numbers that are higher than 4, tally of the doubles and triples.40,000-won (900 X 600=540,000) "

Your "easy" system can't win $900 in all 600 drawings when even you acknowledge losses in 26 drawings when the lowest digit was above 4 and losses in the 170 drawings when doubles and triples were drawn. And even though you won nothing/zero/goose egg in 196 drawings, there were still 404 winning drawings. You're correct the cost of play is $396,000, but 404 times $900 equals $363,600 and a net loss of $32,400.

"Ok so I was way off, but this only means I'll have to eventually go to the max bet of 10 bucks per number which would cost 6,600 bucks per draw "

I hate giving you more bad news, but had you bet $6600 in each of the last 600 drawings, you would lost ten times more or $324,000. You also excluded 7 of the evening drawings where the lowest digit was over 4. Your fuzzy terrible math makes it look like you're on to something, but the real math proves your "easy" system can't even win getting the fictitious $900 to $1 payoff.
amber123

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Oct 28, 2015, 4:13 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Oct 28, 2015
"Now there is absolutely no speculation about the tally of numbers that are higher than 4, tally of the doubles and triples.40,000-won (900 X 600=540,000) "

Your "easy" system can't win $900 in all 600 drawings when even you acknowledge losses in 26 drawings when the lowest digit was above 4 and losses in the 170 drawings when doubles and triples were drawn. And even though you won nothing/zero/goose egg in 196 drawings, there were still 404 winning drawings. You're correct the cost of play is $396,000, but 404 times $900 equals $363,600 and a net loss of $32,400.

"Ok so I was way off, but this only means I'll have to eventually go to the max bet of 10 bucks per number which would cost 6,600 bucks per draw "

I hate giving you more bad news, but had you bet $6600 in each of the last 600 drawings, you would lost ten times more or $324,000. You also excluded 7 of the evening drawings where the lowest digit was over 4. Your fuzzy terrible math makes it look like you're on to something, but the real math proves your "easy" system can't even win getting the fictitious $900 to $1 payoff.

You just make up numbers that don't exist. I tallied up the costs which includes, the cost, the doubles and triples, and lowest number above 4. If you can't understand this then there is nothing more I can say to you.

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Oct 28, 2015, 5:12 pm

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Oct 28, 2015

You just make up numbers that don't exist. I tallied up the costs which includes, the cost, the doubles and triples, and lowest number above 4. If you can't understand this then there is nothing more I can say to you.

FLORIDA 3 COMBINED			amber123	Games since 10/1/2015
			Florida Straight Payout	$500	Offshore Straight	$900
Games	53			$26,500	Total winnings possible	$47,700
No Match	41	77%
Doubles	12	23%	Loss due to Doubles	$10,800	Loss due to Doubles	$10,800
Triples	0	0%	Loss due to triples	$0	Loss due to triples	$0
Low 0-4	39	73.58%	Loss due to Low greater than 4	$1,800	Loss due to Low greater than 4	$1,800
Low 5-9	2	4%	Net Possible winnings	$13,900	Net Possible winnings	$35,100
			Cost to Play	$34,980	Cost to Play	$34,980
			Win / Lose	$21,080	Win / Lose	$120

AllenB

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Oct 28, 2015, 5:20 pm

Simple Calculation 600/900=.733333 or 73.3% (break even) Actual Win% 73.58% Difference 0.25%

0.25$ of $47,700 is $120.00

I'm going back to strings; but, I will also monitor this trend. Opportunity exists here; but no slam dunk

Good Luck
adobea78

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Oct 28, 2015, 6:58 pm

If one is stuck with Statistical percentiles, which is not a prediction method, then any ideal will be discarded. These percentiles has been with mankind since inception of sampling.Is just a guild to strategies your options when waging. A good read on Non-parametric sampling will throw a light on why probability, hence statistical percentile is not the only option in inferring a data. With any ideal, the focus should be on Binomial format, which is the foundation of all lotto matrix. Do you subscribe to the basic premise of lottery?, answer to this reflects much on your perception and approach, some like to crunch data in a logical way, some take the intuitive inference. Many good ideals has been discarded by so-called ' Statisticians and programmers' who are stuck on logic when the basic premise of lottery is open to many options.
AllenB

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Oct 28, 2015, 7:27 pm

Quote: Originally posted by adobea78 on Oct 28, 2015
If one is stuck with Statistical percentiles, which is not a prediction method, then any ideal will be discarded. These percentiles has been with mankind since inception of sampling.Is just a guild to strategies your options when waging. A good read on Non-parametric sampling will throw a light on why probability, hence statistical percentile is not the only option in inferring a data. With any ideal, the focus should be on Binomial format, which is the foundation of all lotto matrix. Do you subscribe to the basic premise of lottery?, answer to this reflects much on your perception and approach, some like to crunch data in a logical way, some take the intuitive inference. Many good ideals has been discarded by so-called ' Statisticians and programmers' who are stuck on logic when the basic premise of lottery is open to many options.

No disagreement here. I said the system had goog things to observe and help with predictions. I got the impression that amber123 was suggesting that the system was a guaranteed winner and that playing every day was a road to riches.
AllenB

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Oct 28, 2015, 8:05 pm

Quote: Originally posted by adobea78 on Oct 28, 2015
If one is stuck with Statistical percentiles, which is not a prediction method, then any ideal will be discarded. These percentiles has been with mankind since inception of sampling.Is just a guild to strategies your options when waging. A good read on Non-parametric sampling will throw a light on why probability, hence statistical percentile is not the only option in inferring a data. With any ideal, the focus should be on Binomial format, which is the foundation of all lotto matrix. Do you subscribe to the basic premise of lottery?, answer to this reflects much on your perception and approach, some like to crunch data in a logical way, some take the intuitive inference. Many good ideals has been discarded by so-called ' Statisticians and programmers' who are stuck on logic when the basic premise of lottery is open to many options.

Just a thought. With a frequency over 50% is there a betting strategy to double down and come out a winner?
adobea78

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Oct 28, 2015, 9:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Oct 28, 2015
Just a thought. With a frequency over 50% is there a betting strategy to double down and come out a winner?

I subscribe to the premise of lottery, hence each event is unique, most of my predictions is based on assumptions, waging is more of a strategy. You can have the right picks and poor waging strategy, who says you have to follow distribution trend?
Stack47

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Oct 29, 2015, 7:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Oct 28, 2015
You just make up numbers that don't exist. I tallied up the costs which includes, the cost, the doubles and triples, and lowest number above 4. If you can't understand this then there is nothing more I can say to you.

"540,000-won (900 X 600=540,000)"

It's no skin off my nose if you're trying convince some gullible LP members you won $900 in the last 600 consecutive drawing. But for the rest of us explain exactly how you won $900 when doubles and triples were drawn.

Stack47

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Oct 29, 2015, 8:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Oct 28, 2015

FLORIDA 3 COMBINED			amber123	Games since 10/1/2015
			Florida Straight Payout	$500	Offshore Straight	$900
Games	53			$26,500	Total winnings possible	$47,700
No Match	41	77%
Doubles	12	23%	Loss due to Doubles	$10,800	Loss due to Doubles	$10,800
Triples	0	0%	Loss due to triples	$0	Loss due to triples	$0
Low 0-4	39	73.58%	Loss due to Low greater than 4	$1,800	Loss due to Low greater than 4	$1,800
Low 5-9	2	4%	Net Possible winnings	$13,900	Net Possible winnings	$35,100
			Cost to Play	$34,980	Cost to Play	$34,980
			Win / Lose	$21,080	Win / Lose	$120

"Total winnings possible"

Should MM and PB systems consider possible winnings or should they simply subtract the losses from the winnings or vise-versa?

In the last 60 combined Midday and Evening Florida Pick-3 drawings, there were 15 doubles and 2 combos with the lowest digit over 5. Betting $660 for 60 drawings is a total wager of $39,600. It was impossible to win in 17 drawings so you subtract 17 from 60 and 43 times $900 equals $38,700 or a net loss of $900.

But don't let the actual math get in the way.

amber123

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Oct 29, 2015, 9:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Oct 29, 2015
"540,000-won (900 X 600=540,000)"

It's no skin off my nose if you're trying convince some gullible LP members you won $900 in the last 600 consecutive drawing. But for the rest of us explain exactly how you won $900 when doubles and triples were drawn.

Wow, I really have to explain this?

This was a simulation of what I would have won (540,000) in the past 10 months had I played, minus the cost (396,000), doubles and triples (112,200), and lowest numbers above 4(17,160).

Remember?..I was doing a back test?

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