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Multi-state lottery jackpots are growing at a smaller pace

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Anyone notice how much slower the jackpots for both the Mega Millions and Powerball are growing?  At this range, the jackpots used to increase by 30+ million with each drawing.  Now it seems they are being capped as the jackpot history for both shows much smaller growth than what has been happening in years past. 

 

I am assuming that the jackpots have gotten so large so many times over the past two years that they decided to cap the growth rate in order to pay out less money.

 

Thoughts?

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there is no cap. The jackpot increases are based on ticket sales and interest rates.

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Yeah, players seem to be turning up their noses to these paltry $200 million jackpots lol.  Me, I play anytime it's $50m or better, which is almost always the case with PB's larger starting jackpot.

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It does seem jackpots are growing slower. If so, it's because fewer are playing. Adding more states, such as California, and allowing cross-selling of Powerball and Mega Millions have helped keep the jackpot games going, but it's getting ever more challenging to keep sales up...

Many players, me included, aren't overly excited playing jackpot games with even worse, astronomical odds that cost more to play than in the past. The thrill and excitement have long worn off for most who play. There was a time when players stood in long lines to buy tickets for $100 million and less jackpots - those days are long since past. The buying frenzy for the PA Super 7 drawing that grew to upwards of $100 million 25 years ago, back in 1989, rivals the excitement of today.

As for comparing jackpots, always use the cash value. Annuity values are inflated, and even more so in recent years by extending the annuity period from 25 years to upwards of 30 years and graduated (ie. 4% more per year towards the end of the annuity) payments.

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It should be incredibly obvious that the big jumps have always been caused by people buying more tickets than they do when jackpots are small. It should be almost as obvious that some regular players buy more tickets than they usually do, and some people who aren't regular players start buying tickets at some point. When a $200 million jackpot was unusually big people took the chance when it became available.

People still follow the same behavior when jackpots are unusually big, but that doesn't happen until they get to $300 million or more. I expect that after losing a few hundred times or so some people figure out they're probably going to keep losing (and they're almost certainly right). That the bigger jackpots come with even steeper odds (and a doubling of ticket price for PB) has to have an affect, too.

ttech10's avatar - blobdude

One thing to note, there's only a cash value of $35m difference between the two games. Both jackpots are high, so those people who play large jackpots are split between two games. Maybe someone who used to play $20 towards one or the other is now only spending $10 towards each.

 

Back in February, it definitely appears the higher PB jackpot affected sales of MM. the MM was growing slow while the PB jackpot was large, but once it was won, MM started growing by larger amounts than before.

rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
In response to ttech10

Probably right.

As for me I decided to quit PB no matter how high it goes. They just keep screwing that game up the harder they try to fix it.  I'll keep playing MM with the megaplier and be really happy to maybe hit second prize for at least 2 million. Along with 2 Step and Lotto that will keep me busy.

Think's avatar - lightbulb
In response to waryman

They keep adding too many new crappy games and there isn't enough money to keep them all going.  They are hoping you are distracted and don't notice the divide and conquer strategy.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VogHwP0C5VY

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it's growing at a slower rate because some people are buying into the notion that only a few States WILL win the jackpots- namely CA, NJ, FL, NY...etc.

Once an idea is planted that makes people say " Yeah,that makes sense now that l think about it"..the mental brakes are applied. 

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
In response to noise-gate

That might be true of LP members but I'm guessing less than 20% of the players of those games are LP members.

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In response to RJOh

Well RJ- that raises another question...is the jackpot growth 20% slower? If so-well problem solved.LP members influence is grossly underestimated, and Todd makes no bones about this site being the largest of its kind on the face of this planet.For all we know, RJOH could be household name in Korea...

ttech10's avatar - blobdude
In response to rcbbuckeye

I've also quit PB. I used to do the occasional ticket when they had a large jackpot, but I do much better just sticking with MM now.

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People are not spending the money they did as recently as 2 years ago. Sales on the MM really seemed to drop when they changed the matrix. Jan of 2012 ticket sales for a 15 drawing period where the JP rolled 15 times were 536 mill and the annuity stood at 290 million. This last JP that was won after 15 rollovers the sales were 305 mill and the annuity stood at 172 mill. That is a 40% decrease in ticket sales from just 2 years ago. Powerball sales are also down and i am guessing in April when the matrix for that game changes the same will happen there also. In the past when JP would get up over 200 mill sales would really get big until the JP was hit. Now a 200 mill JP if its not hit just does not increase that much like it used to. The MM JP that was hit last week for 270 mill only had 52.8 mill in ticket sales for that drawing. In March of 2012 a 171 million advertised jp had 49.9 in sales and a 290 million advertised JP which is only 20 million more then the recent 270 JP had sales of over 111 million in sales. 17 rollovers on 2012 resulted in 651 million in ticket sales just for that drawing and a JP of 640 million. this recent 270 mill JP was the result of 20 rollovers.

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Are you stating that people are getting the idea that some of the same states are winning the lottery from lottery post?  I think they are getting that from watching and playing the game.  It's not hard to see.

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I too feel that they're capped. Illinois 6/52, 5/45 and Indiana 6/48 are capped no matter how many tickets are sold. For example; Illinois 6/52 goes up 250,000 when no one matches all six numbers, and lucky day lotto 5/45 goes up only 50,000 if no one matches all five numbers, Indiana 6/48 goes up 250,000 and then the next no match of six numbers goes up 300,000. 

I am sick and tired of these lottery companies promising revenue to the above mentioned states at the players expense. I feel that the jackpot won in Illinois last night should've been around 30 million. 

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