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Does anyone here actually turn a profit in the long run?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

Think about it.  For all the small winnings you get, are you allowing that excitement to cloud your judgement? Have you even bothered doing a comparison study on how much you've spent in a month or year compared to how much money you've won?  If not, I think it's time to run an experiment and get real answers.  No more confirmation biases.

If you are turning a profit, how much profit are we talking about?  $5, $10, $50 per game?  Is it even worth all the effort it takes you to run your system?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

For instance, I just went into the Predictions forum and looked at yesterday's winners.  I chose someone who predicted some numbers for the NY Pick 10.  That person had 10 winning games, for $2 each.  So $20 was won. Yay, right?  Wrong.  I checked how much that person "spent" and it was a whopping $50.  So it's a false win.

I just checked another "winning" predictors numbers.  Again, $50 was spent on the NY Pick 10, but only $22 was won (11 lines of winning numbers).

Checked another one.  $50 spent on NY Numbers.  $40 was won.

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In response to Luminus

Luminus,

Finally!  Someone is observing what I have been trying to show with backtests!  Good for you!

But the truth you have discovered is not a reason to avoid the lottery.  Your (Costs-Wins) should be viewed as nothing more than the price you must pay for your chances to win the large jackpots.  The lotteries who pay off the winners must get the money from somewhere!  Smiley

Unfortunately, there are no big jackpots to be won in most Pick3 games.

--Jimmy4164

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
In response to Luminus

If you are following the predictions of particular players, you can also look up their overall win / lose records for the last thirty days and life time by hits and winnings.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to RJOh

I have.  You're on the top 10 Highest Lifetime Prize Ratio list with $18,630 wins. The problem is, the amount of loses you wrack up will most likely be too discouraging for you to keep going long enough to turn a profit.  Your wagers were $13,788.  Your profit was $4,842.  What year did you start posting predictions, again?  Not a single person has a jackpot nor a profit larger than a few thousand dollars.

I mean, if you've spent $500 in a month and only netted $100, that's pretty discouraging.  Your ability to pay bills would suffer big time, as well.  Remember, these guys are playing every day in multiple states.

In the last 30 days, dbello, spent $4,023 and won $6,000.  Who has thousands of dollars of disposable money to be taking wild chances like that and for so little profit?  You might as well get a second job.

 

jimmy4164,

I'm not avoiding the lottery.  I'm just making a point.  If one is going to play the lottery, they need to be aware of issues like this.

CutlassBob's avatar - Sphere animated2.gif

I look at it month to month, overall since i started playing, not sure. But i'm sure in 2009 i was at a major loss, playing too many scratch-off tickets. This year i've cut my scratches down to a whim. So far i've had a decent year.

Mind you i do not play all my predictions. That is a cool aspect of this website.

In Jan i made $666.00

Feb i lost 400.00

In March won $1083.00

In April i made $9497.00

In May, June & July i lost $1000.00

August i was up $2500.00

So far in Sept i'm up over $900.00.

All this playing daily 3 and 4 in Michigan.

I'll know more at the end of the year when i count my win's and losses.

Stay tuned for the big picture in January 2011.

Cutla$$Bob

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I just did the workout from the last year till today. I'm $17.28 ahead of the game.

17.28 divided by 22 years, thats 8,030 days.

It comes to 0.00021519  per day profit.

Not bad.....

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Thats great!  I'm still learning and losing :((

 

Care to share your ways?

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

You guys aren't ahead by much.  That's the problem.  Like I said, you're better off getting a second job.

stephi's avatar - winifrid

I haven't seen anyone except one or 2 persons state on this site that they are a professional gambler. I play jackpot games only and yeah i know its lost money but if I don't play i  lose the opportunity to one day change my life for the better.

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to stephi

Well, if you're gonna play only jackpot games, then it's not about a profit.  It's about a dream.

aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo

Hi,

Before you decide to play any lottery on regular and continuing basis you should set up a goal and targets - what do you want to achieve and how to achieve it.

Here is my example. I decided to play Lotto 649 with one main objective - to win a big one one day (preferably the Big Jack but the 2nd prize would also make me happy). To achieve this will cost time, effort and money. While I have 1st & 2nd readily available the 3rd is a problem. So I try to achieve my goal at the MINIMUM expense. I don't expect to make a profit on playing the lottery - until the Big One comes around. For me that's acceptable risk and investment. But I do everything I can to maximize small wins on the way to reduce the cost. That is my target and I can achieve it.

No lottery is ever designed to make profits for players. Some players will win big, the great majority will remain loosers. That's a fact of playing any lottery. If you want to make a constant (or at least frequent) profit on something pick appropriate tools to achieve it - like investing in stocks, real estate etc. Lottery is not an appropriate tool for that.

If you cannot take or afford a loss do not play a lottery.

Regards

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to aquariuslottery

I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole.

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In response to aquariuslottery

Luminus,

Although I agree with a lot of your recent sentiment here, you appear to be hedging when you say,

"I think you've missed the point.  There are a bunch of people on here using strategies to defeat the lottery.  The goal is to turn a profit, not break even.  And while we are all chasing the Big One, I don't think many of us want to end up thousands of dollars in the hole."

If you are still hopefull that you can turn a consistent profit while waiting for a big hit, you are MOST LIKELY going to fail.  I say "most likely" because as RJOh likes to point out, there are examples of people showing modest profits over reasonable periods of time.  You can expect to see this in random processes like these lotteries.  It's the nature of randomness.  However, UNLESS you have inside information from a corrupt administrator of a computerized results game, you can only hope to be one of the winners if you are LUCKY enough to find yourself out in the "tails" of a distribution which has a MEAN of a 50% loss!

I think aquariuslottery is giving you the best advice above.

--Jimmy4164

Luminus's avatar - ouskuu
In response to jimmy4164

I'm NOT hopeful that I can turn a consistent profit.  I don't think anyone can.  That's why I created this thread.

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st.germain's avatar - Tarlor

Luminous, you really sound like a really unpleasent person ...you must be a real charm among friends and family...you really could use a visit from the good luck fairy....her cousin is the good mannered fairy....your not in kansas anymore   ..lol.....Don't bother to respond. I don't usually communicate with nuts like you.

truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
In response to st.germain

Unpleasant or just honest?

Everyone here should question things like Luminus has done.  This is a forum, after all and discussion might help people with the answers.  If you are playing the lottery with the expectation of winning free money like some kind of giveaway - then you aren't being honest with yourself.

rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
In response to truecritic

No problem. I actually agreed with all you said. It simply makes sense.

My math is not the greatest and I actually got out the calculator to double check before I posted. LOL.

truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure

Just for the sake of answering the topic of this forum, here is a member that claims he does win.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220791/1788462

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In response to truecritic

I've been wracking my brain, studying the p-3 since 1987, when I lived in Tonapah, Arizona, when Jordan was 2 years old, crawling on the floor in his diapers, and I still haven't been able, to this day, make a p-3 system, or buy one that produces enough to live off the wins, or seen anyone who has PROVED they make more than they lose in a consistent fashion, but Jordan has solved the mystery.

Now that's amazing!

Unfortunately for him, until he proves it, I'm putting him on the list of all the others who come here boasting about how wondeful their system or strategic approach is, and not capable of proving it. It's getting old.

Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

Dude, look at how long I have been a member. In the beginning of my membership I was just like you are now, dumb-founded. Since then I buckled down and as a result Im much better now. Sorry you cant say the same for yourself.

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In response to Jordans121

Prove your abilities or shut the heck up already with your BS crap. I don't care If you were a member since 1827, it's all talk talk talk.

Obviously you haven't been around LP long enough to see all the Nut jobs who come crawling out of the woodwork claiming they've solved the secrets of the universe, and can't back them up.

Put me in my place and prove it. This isn't the first time I've asked this question since 2005. I've been here longer than you think.

Believe when I say I've seen all the crackpots who make bold claims and fade away into the night. And you're no different until you prove it.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/115138/400910?q=pacattack05&tab=us&rp=search

 

dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
In response to joker17

lmao joker! Thank you! 1827 I wanted to remember that number tonight....along with 1825.

 

Joker, I've seen you put up a LOT of useful, working systems.

Jordans, I've seen you put up things too.

I think you're both making valuable contributions, that's what counts.

truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
In response to joker17

Back in the days when CalifDude was still allowed in!   Thumbs Up

You have 3 months seniority on me.Big Grin

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In response to CutlassBob

wOW! You must have a good income!

 

Doctor, Lawyer, Accountant????

5End of thread (5 pages)

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