CA SLP: Abysmal Rollover Rate?


 The jackpot amount for the last time was 33 millions. Now it's 34 millions. That's just 1 million increase. Well, when the amount reaches about 30 millons the rollover rate is about 3 millions.

 Wow, does bad economy hit the lottery rollover rate, too? Or do people spend money on gifts, not lottery on Holiday season? Well, it's just a dollar or two to play. Why are people shying away from buying lottery?


Wow.  That's bad.  I don't think that's ever happened before, has it?  It's always rolled at least $2M.

In response to bytheshore

 Yeah, but the actual cash value has increased. A year ago the amount has to reach 40 millions to get 17 millions in cash value. Now the jackpot amount is 34 millions but the cash value after tax is about 18.4 millions.

grengrad's avatar - nw rogue.jpg

The rates of annuities dropped massively in the last 5 months. There was just a federal interest rate cut, and annuity rates while not directly tied to that also dropped with it.

Powerball, for example, went from paying about 60.5% to nearly 63% when taking the cash up front. Only 6 months ago, it was paying 50%.

In other words, an annuity for Powerball was paying:

200% of the cash value 6 months ago.

165% of the cash value 1 week.

159% of the cash value now.

This is the worst time in a very long time to take an annuity.

Todd's avatar - Cylon 200.jpg
In response to ambelamba

This is a good point.  If you check the jackpot statistics for Calif. SLP, you will see that it is the smallest rollover ever we have recorded for the game.  Much smaller than the average rollover.

grengrad's avatar - nw rogue.jpg

Let me clarify my post.

The last jackpot was $33,000,000 .... $23,200,000 cash value.

Current Jackpot is  $34,000,000 .... $24,100,000 cash value

That is $900,000 more money in actual cash.


1 year ago. The California SLP was paying out about 170% of the cash value in annuity value.

Today the CA SLP is paying out 141% of the cash value in annuity value.

Right now a rollover of $2,000,000 in the annuity requires $1,420,000 in real cash, whereas 1 year ago it only took $1,190,000.

There are many instances in the past where the cash value only went up $1,000,000 or $1,100,000 and the jackpot was giving a $2,000,000 roll over. I don't have all the data, but it would not suprise me if there was a cash value increase of less than $900,000 at some point in the past.


 Now it's 35 millions with $24,700,000 cash value. Wow.


 Oh, great. Now it's 36millions. At this rate virtually no one will want to play California Super Lotto anymore.

grengrad's avatar - nw rogue.jpg
In response to ambelamba

$600,000 is bad.


 Does this have anything to do with the budget crisis? I thought lottery revenue can be independent from it because the money comes from different sources.

 It would mighty suck if this is the last time the jackpot for Super Lotto Plus goes beyond 20 millions.

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