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Tampa Bay Derby - Sat. 3/15

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Rick G

Tampa Bay Derby / Tampa Bay Downs, 12th Race

#3  War Pass(2/5) is the horse to beat.  Not only in this race but all the way to the KY Derby.  He is 5 for 5 and has never been headed at any call of his races and beats this field hands-down in speed ratings.

He is the probable winner but his morning line odds of 2/5 are not inviting.  This is not a race to be looking for value though.  His last race was against much easier company in his first start this year but he won easily without being encouraged at all.

With that said, every horse can lose a race and he won't be pushed to win this race.  He's aiming for the Derby and this is a prep race.  My choice for the upset is # 7  Atoned (5/1) who might make use of the track bias at this distance for late speed.  There is plenty of early speed in this race to challenge War Pass early so it sets up nicely for Atoned to catch him in a photo at the wire.   But I wouldn't bet the late mortgage payment on that happening.

Be back in a few with the Rebel Stakes and the San Felipe Stakes. 

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Rick G

Rebel Stakes / Oaklawn Park, 10th Race

# 9  Z Fortune  (9/5)

# 2 Sierra Sunset (4/1)

# 5 Golden Yank (6/1) 

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Rick G

San Felipe Stakes / Santa Anita, 9th Race

# 5  Indian Sun  (6/1)


# 6  Go For Cover  (20/1)


Good luck everyone! 

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Rick G
In response to Rick G

Check out the show prices in this race:

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 12  video replay

War Monger had about 96% of the show pool and he finished out of the money.  I had # 7 to win at about 8/1 odds.  Should have bet him to show.

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