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Which is the better bet ?

JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif
JKING

Your have $5 to bet on MegaMillions or Powerball. Which method from the two examples below would you use?

Example #1

The same 5 numbers with different bonus balls

1,2,3,4,5-1

1,2,3,4,5-2

1,2,3,4,5-3

1,2,3,4,5-4

1,2,3,4,5-5

Example #2

Twenty five different numbers with the same bonus ball.

1,2,3,4,5-1

6,7,8,9,10-1

11,12,13,14,15-1

16,17,18,19,20-1

21,22,23,24,25-1

Which one pays off the best if you hit?

All comments and opinions are welcome. *S*

benmas's avatar - waveform
benmas

the main difficulty stands with combining the 5 white balls...so i'd say try 5 different combos for the 5 white balls and keep pb same...if you hit the pb once you make 3 bucks..its nothing...so might as well go with one gut shot and make 3x5...i'd defenitly go with option 2 but dont necessarily agree with 25 different balls on all lines..you can keep one or two white balls same on all 5 lines especially if you have a number that you feel it..

BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
BobP

Optimal lotto strategy would be to play 25 unique numbers if you only have 5 lines to work with.  This would improve your odds of having the winning numbers among those you are playing.  You can't win if you don't have the winning numbers.  BobP


JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif
JKING

Hi,

 Thanks for the replies.

Just a couple thoughts for discussion purposes.

1) Just because you have increased your odds of getting the winning by playing 25 numbers, there is no guarentee that those winning numbers will end up on the same line.

2) For arguments sake, lets say the winning numbers were 1,2,3,45,46 and neither example hits the bonus number. If the payoff for hittting 3 numbers is $10, then example #1 got $50 less the $5 buy in. Example #2 got $10 less the $5 buy in. So you have $45 versus $5 in winnings. Hmmmm

3) I guess it's a matter of how much confidence you have in your numbers.

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
RJOh

I agree with BobP that the optimal lotto strategy would be to play 25 unique numbers.  Having said that, there are some additional strategies that will optimize those 25 numbers chances of having a combination that will win something.  You should avoid combinations that has matched 4 or 5 in previous drawings and distribute the numbers in each combination in a similar manner as previous winners.

I tried this yesterday with Ohio Rolling Cash5 and matched 3 and 2 for $11 with 10 lines.  I posted the 10 lines on the prediction board and it showed I matched 3 for $10 however it does count match 2's.  Since I didn't lose and RC5 is almost at $400K, I'll be playing again today and expecting a better outcome.

fja's avatar - gnome1
fja

Question was "which one pays off better if you hit": 

Example 1 will pay off the best

If 1,2,3,4,5-1  is pulled, then you win the jackpot plus  the 2nd  prize (4 times)

In exaple 2 you will hit jackpot plus 0+1 (4 times)

Or are you headed some where else with this?

JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif
JKING

Hi,

  Maybe the best system should be judged on how you generate you picks. For me, I've put emphasis on predicting individual numbers rather than projecting combinations. Given the example above, I think it is noteworthy that example #2 has to win 9 times to equal one win in example one. Is example #2 nine times better?

  I'm just interested to see why some people think one betting method is smarter than the other.

Thanks for everyones input.

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