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reThinking Lottery Systems??

SirMetro's avatar - center

Funny thing about most, if not all of the various Lottery systems and spreadsheets (mine included) have in common. They all make one single and yet very crucial mistake. What is funny is, we all realize it, but do not take steps to address it. I will be the first to admit, I couldn't pick the right numbers if they slapped me in the face. But I have seen and worked with enough various systems to see what I think are interesting results. The mistake is very simple, almost elementary. Although I think this applies mostly to the ball machines, I also believe it may apply to the random number generators as well.

The mistake is, all of the systems present what the NEXT number is to fall.

Now, you ask, why is this important? Simple, because the number that will be broadcast is NOT the next number to fall after the last number that was broadcast.

Why? Because most of the Gaming Commissions have in place the required rules that mandate that each machine draw anywhere from 2 to 4 sets of numbers to insure that a random selection is maintained. And this is done before EACH draw. Go read the finer print at most of the State's lottery web sites. It's there and most folks here also know it.

Perhaps the question is, what difference does it make? Simply put, statiscally, we can all evaulate what is to come after a 4 or a 7 or a 2. Thru Math, we believe we know what number should be next to fall. And what happens if you are right? Perhaps the systems are correct. Perhaps the next number due after a 357 is a 408, yet a 569 might fall. Maybe if we had evaluated 2, 3 or 5 steps further out, it would have been seen. 

First, please don't send me a million PM's asking for a system that I have no earthly clue how to create. This is provided as an idea for all of those that are so much brighter then I am on here. I also hope that perhaps an idea can be shared on how to create a relatively simple system that would follow this particular logic. One more side note, this applies to all ball machines, not just for Pick 3 & 4 systems.

Just some of my rambling thoughts,

Sir Metro

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I would also add the rotation of the ball tubes. That also throws a wrench in the mix. I would win much more often if I knew the rotation ahead of time.

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk

If the predraw tests are done before every drawing, your history of past drawings is of drawings done after those predraw tests so your picks will reflect those tests.  I assume that the most common characteristics of previous drawings will be common to future drawings so I pick my combinations accordingly.

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If the predraw tests are done before every drawing, your history of past drawings is of drawings done after those predraw tests so your picks will reflect those tests.  I assume that the most common characteristics of previous drawings will be common to future drawings so I pick my combinations accordingly.

Good point.

BuzzsawAnn's avatar - nw shadow.jpg

Statistics may be the way to go-  maybe the next  6 numbers are considered and narrow it to the last three.

So that is why the players list 10 to fifiteen numbers to account for the practice numbers. I get it now

So unless you are lucky or you have the guides whisper the numbers to you the lottery will win 9 out of 10 times.

What is that saying    a sucker is born every minute      Banana

 

Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg

Interesting topic, SirMetro.

Number biases or gaming biases come up all the time no matter what game you're playing or how it's being played.

One could probably consistently come out ahead in a coin toss game if they always picked the last result for the next toss because randomness is not in exact order (H/T/H/T/H) but rather a flow of occurrences that evens out in the long run. If two consecutive flips occurred 51% of the time you would be ahead.

Looks like a good roulette red vs. black experiment...that must be why they threw in the two greens.

SirMetro's avatar - center

So far, the right idea...but, consider this. If we know the following to be a commonly occuring event

1 follows 6

2 follows 4

3 follows 8

4 follows 9

5 follows 0 

and so forth, then in theory, we could say

the last number to fall was a 9

so the next due number is a 4

and the next due number is a 2

Up thru however many recurrances that one think should exist. This would then reveal an entirely new set of numbers that would not have been looked at before, because, nobody expects the 5 to follow the 9! The statistical rules will hold place and yet could possibly create a better winning arrangement. I hope this makes better sense to folks.

Sir Metro

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk

Most games of chance assume certain events will occur,but the odds are based on how often the players are likely to predict when those events will occurs.  While it may be true that 1 has followed 6 and 2 has followed 4 in the past, nine other numbers also followed them most of the times and in a pick3 game you have beat the 1:10 odds three times to win or get lucky and get a box hit. Beating the odds once or twice  doesn't count.

jordi marey's avatar - Lottery-039.jpg
…..” Now, you ask, why is this important? Simple, because the number that will be broadcast is NOT the next number to fall after the last number that was broadcast”……
 
 
interesting view SirMetro, your position seems to support  something I once read. Predicting future lottery outcomes remain impossible and we must continue to rely upon chance. Now I understand why  Fla. Cash3 3rd position # 7  that I felt stood a real good chance of winning  in the next couple of days if not then nine days later can only have its  10% chance of winning. 
 

Great topic hope it continues with serious input.

 
 
BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png

Consider the Gail Howard "D" chart options. BobP

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Good one buzz saw

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