# a sorta stupid question for the math type

anybody ever tried autoregressing numbers for jackpot lotteries?

"autoregressing" never heard of that math term, what is it?  Even the spell check didn't recognize it.

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you throw the historical numbers into an excel file

(sort the results from each drawing so that the numbers are in numerical order -- as it's reported on powerball website)

then today's 1st ball is some kind of weighted average of the previous few 1st balls

and today's 2nd ball is some kind of weighted average of the previous few 2nd balls

so on and so forth

essentially a statistical software package can approximate what weighted averages are the best for predicting future balls

like i hinted by saying it's kind of stupid, there are some severe assumptions being made to believe in such a process, but when i threw in the results from the last 58 PB drawings, that's the idea that first came to mind.

Maybe it's a Term from Statistics: Regression is a way of defining the extent to which two variables are related. Regression can be used in an attempt to predict Lottery Numbers, but this can be tricky. The existence of a correlation between variables does not always mean that there is a cause-and-effect link between them.

What may (and probably will) happen is that the numbers in the inside columns will trend toward the most likely number to hit within that column - somewhat like a frequency chart for that particular lottery matrix would indicate. 01 will always be the number occurring most often in the first column and the highest number drawn in the matrix will always be the number occurring most often in the last column.

gl

j

When you look at the last 80 drawings of MegaMillions since the matrix changes and use plain math instead of statistical regression and use the most active numbers, you get the following.

Column One = 02,14
Column Two = 16,17,20
Column Three = 27
Column Four = 50,51
Column Five = 52,54
MegaBall = 04,36

When you compare the group with the actually drawings, the following show up.

03/10/06  04 17 18 51 54    +31
11/11/05  09 14 34 50 51    +40
08/02/05  17 22 39 50 52    +46

RJOh

regression
1: the act or an instance of regressing
2: a trend or shift toward a lower or less perfect state: as a: progressive decline of a manifestation of disease b (1): gradual loss of differentiation and function by a body part especially as a physiological change accompanying aging (2) : gradual loss of memories and acquired skills c: reversion to an earlier mental or behavioral level d: a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables that is often empirically determined from data and is used especially to predict values of one variable when given values of the others <the regression of y on x is linear> ; specifically: a function that yields the mean value of a random variable under the condition that one or more independent variables have specified values

d: a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables that is often empirically determined from data and is used especially to predict values of one variable when given values of the others <the regression of y on x is linear> ; specifically: a function that yields the mean value of a random variable under the condition that one or more independent variables have specified values

That's the definition that jschay56 was referring to, but just adding up the numbers in each column and picking the most active or an average of the group will get almost the same results.  Since this is trying to predict a random event and not rocket science, it's probably close enough, at least for me.

RJOh

Rjoh i have no complaints with your picks in fact some of your wheeling methods are great. i have tried several ways to wheel the whole set of numbers for mega and many times depending on how i input the numbers i have got 3 of 5 now all i need to do is get lucky and trap all 5...

Frequency chart per column for 5/56 matrix:

gl

j

This chart is interesting (and correct) but meaningless.  It only tells you how many other combinations are available if balls are drawn and reported in numerical order.  For those of you that do not know what this chart means, for example, if the number 23 is the 3rd ball drawn (in numerical order, not actual draw order), there are only 121,968 other posible combinations in the 1-5 positions, mega ball not included.  The real odds from here (23 in 3rd spot is 121,968*46=5,610,528).  If balls were chosen in numerical order, I would agree, but they are not.  If you absolutely knew 23 was going to be the third ball, which you can't know, your odds are 1:5.6 million rather than 1:175.7 million.

Because any number can be drawn in any position, the actual chart should look like this:  (sorry)

 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211 68211

meg4m1|10ns

Your chart lacks any rows or columns definitions, what does it all mean?  While any number may be drawn at any time, once sorted the number 1 can only occupy the first position as with the highest number in the pool can only occupy the last position.

RJOh

RJOh

There are 5 columns and 56 rows in my chart.  Each row adds up to 341,055.  Each column adds up to 3,819,816.  That's MegaMillions.

You make my point perfectly when you say, "any number may be drawn at any time".  In a perfect world, after 56 drawings, one could expect each number to have been drawn 5 times.  This would make the lottery kinda pointless because it could only last 56 drawings, getting easier with each draw.  From that point on, the only numbers that could hit was the draw 57 plays ago as those numbers drop off.

I don't see the point in sorting draws into numerical order.  It has no bearing on future draws.  There is no pattern or formula, going forward or back, that can tell you what the next draw will be or what the previous draw was.

Looking at the first chart and going back the last 56 draws, by position alone, the following numbers appear to be behind (or cold):  1, 13, 29, 45 and 47.  Number one has been drawn 3 times in the last 56 draws.  The math is 341,055/3,819,816*56=5 minus the 3 draws is positive 2.  Let's do another, the 14 in the first position:  111,930/3,819,816*56=1.641 minus the 6 draws in the first position (ignoring 14 has been drawn two other times) is negative 4.359!  Nobody would dare play 14.  Right?  Look at 14 again, this time in the second position:  149,240/3,819,816*56=2.188 minus the 1 time it drew in the second position, makes 14 look really good.  In fact, this way, 14 is in a 2-way tie for second place for the second ball with the 15 ball.  Since 14 has been drawn 8 times total minus the five expected after 56 draws, 14 is really negative 3 overall.

I wouldn't play 1, 13, 29, 45 and 47 if I were you.  Not only did I point out what was cold by this method, and anybody could play this, many hundreds if not thousands already have.  I say this because this is one of the easiest ways to look at the lottery.

What if 1,000 people played those numbers.  Of that 1,000, 1 in 46 would get the mega ball right.  That would be 21 jackpot winners and 979 2nd place 250k winners.  Do you remember the people in "Bruce Almighty" that won \$17.

meg4m1|10ns,

I still don't understand what information your 5X56 chart with 68211 in every position is trying to show.  What law of physic did you use to define the perfect world you described?  I would think in any world perfect or not, if five balls were randomly drawn out a pool of 56, the results would be just as unpredictable each time.  In the last 56 MegaMillions drawings 74% of the numbers were from a pool of 33 which might suggest a bias that can be exploited.

RJOh

You won't understand.  There is no pattern or formula, forward or back, to give you what the next numbers will be or what the previous numbers were.  Period.

Wasn't it the Pennsylvania Daily, sometime back in the 80's, where somebody injected a drop of paint into some of the balls?  THAT IS BIAS!!!

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