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Will someone win a starting level MM JP?

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bks2

It's been almost one year since someone has won a mm jackpot under 100 million. I just can't see someone winning a jackpot at the starting level with the amount of combinations and the low sells at that level. I think MM will have a 500 million dollar jackpot before it gets hit at 12 million.

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Prob988

Last year there were only 6 starting jackpots.  In general the probability that a starting jackpot will get hit is about 8%.  Thus the probability that there will be is winning ticket on a starting ticket is 0.08*6 = 0.48.  It can be shown statistically, if last year is typical for the occurance of starting jackpots, that one would expect a starting jackpot to be won about every two years.  However last year is not representative, since the odds have been changed.  I would expect that it would take about 3 years for a starting jackpot to be won, but it will happen eventually.

The odds of a $500 million jackpot are relatively low.  Even now, with a huge jackpot in place, the odds of this event are far less than probable, although the odds are of course much better than usual.  Certainly a 500 million jackpot is not impossible, but it is improbable, considerably less probable than a winner on a reset jackpot.  That said, I do believe that there will ultimately be a $500 million jackpot.

 

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ryanm

  I voted "never."  However, I'm not completely sure on that.  Bks is probably right that we'll see a $500 million jackpot before we see a winner at the starting level.

bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg
bellyache

I think we will see a winner under $100 million. The odds may be against it, but it's not impossible.

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Just6ntlc

Thanks to these odds, I think there's a small chance it can happen. However, I think it will only occur once every 5 years because there will be some 100 million or less winners.

fja's avatar - gnome1
fja

Obviously the odds are against someone hitting that early in the game, however given the right set of numbers at the right time, I think it will happen sooner than anybody thinks. And it more than likely will not be a set of QP's that wins it.

dvdiva's avatar - 8ball
dvdiva

Odds are far higher that someone will win below 100 million than MM gets to 500 million. In fact there could be multiple times when it's hit below 100 million even before it gets to 400 million.

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ryanm

  Someone just won a Powerball jackpot under $100 million tonight, so it can happen with Mega Millions.

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bks2

I'm talking about the 12 million dollar starting jackpot, I'm sure it's possible to win a jackpot under 100 million, but I'm not sure about the 12 million dollar jackpot.

bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg
bellyache

I still think it is possible for someone to win the jackpot even at its starting prize. All it takes is someone getting the right numbers. No different from any other time.

BaristaExpress's avatar - BaristaExpressMX zpsfb0d8b5d.png
BaristaExpress

I Agree! The odds are the same at 12 million (the start of the game) as they are at 150 million, so anything is possible!

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rlevins

The odds for individual players and numbers remain the same no matter what the jackpot is. But the probablity of jackpot being hit naturally increases as more and more folks buy tickets.

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ryanm

I still think it is possible for someone to win the jackpot even at its starting prize. All it takes is someone getting the right numbers. No different from any other time.

 Yep, if one is destined to win, nothing will stop him or her, not even odds!!

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tg636

I would say 3-5 years for everyone else, within 6 months for me.

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