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Is powerball sandbagging the jackpot?

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Prob988

The announced growth of a jackpot by 13 million dollars is rather small for an advertised jackpot of $180 million.  In fact, the numbers are completely inconsistent with known sales patterns.

It may be that Powerball may be under advertising the actual value in hopes of supressing sales on this drawing, thereby raising the probability of another rollover.  This would give them the capability of producing a much larger jackpot, and much higher sales over two drawings than they would have by simply hyping this one and risking that it is won.

This is the only way I can account for the discrepancy.

I know Powerball is obligated to not inflate the jackpot, but there may be no rule against under-representing it.

 

 

 

dvdiva's avatar - 8ball
dvdiva

Or sales are just down. They sold 33 million at 167 and evidently don't expect more than a 5-9 million dollar jump this time. Sales fell harder than when MM changed it's odds but MM did not change the cash pay outs. Without detailed marketing polls it would be hard to say why sales are down so dramatically but it looks like you might have to revise your execellent probability predictions based on much lower sales.

Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
Bradly_60

I was thinking and maybe they just overstated the jackpot for the previous drawing (167m) and this is a correctional drawing.  If the next jackpot isn't at least over $200 then we know something is going on.

Brad

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CASH Only

988:

That makes a lot of sense to me. MUSL probably knows when players get REALLY excited.

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ryanm

  They did overstate last Saturday's jackpot.  Their estimated CVO was $4 million higher than it would have actually been had the jackpot been won.  Therefore, they actually predicted a $9 million increase in the CVO (estimating sales of about $30 million).

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Prob988

  They did overstate last Saturday's jackpot.  Their estimated CVO was $4 million higher than it would have actually been had the jackpot been won.  Therefore, they actually predicted a $9 million increase in the CVO (estimating sales of about $30 million).

I don't think so. 

Sales for this run were, including the last draw, $257,821,615.  This suggests that the cash value should have been around 86.8 million were the prize won.

This is actually higher than they predicted.

I get my sales figures from Lottoreport.com.  Do you get yours somewhere else?

I still thinking they're sandbagging or engaged in some kind of marketing game.  It will be interesting to see if, as is improbable, the jackpot is actually won this time.    I'll bet that the prize is much higher than advertised.

 

 

 

dvdiva's avatar - 8ball
dvdiva

Only way to know for sure is if it doesn't get hit and the pot jumps to 220. The only real numbers would be at the 200 and 300 million dollar mark. Any push would have to occur around that level if it's for marketing reasons.

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ryanm

  They did overstate last Saturday's jackpot.  Their estimated CVO was $4 million higher than it would have actually been had the jackpot been won.  Therefore, they actually predicted a $9 million increase in the CVO (estimating sales of about $30 million).

I don't think so. 

Sales for this run were, including the last draw, $257,821,615.  This suggests that the cash value should have been around 86.8 million were the prize won.

This is actually higher than they predicted.

I get my sales figures from Lottoreport.com.  Do you get yours somewhere else?

I still thinking they're sandbagging or engaged in some kind of marketing game.  It will be interesting to see if, as is improbable, the jackpot is actually won this time.    I'll bet that the prize is much higher than advertised.

 

 

 

  I did get my sales figures from lottoreport.com as well, but they incorrectly state that the jackpot winner receives 32.6689% of sales.  That applies only to the first four drawings of the current run, which were still under the old matrix.  For the remaining sales, only 30.28855% goes to the jackpot, under the new matrix.

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Prob988

  They did overstate last Saturday's jackpot.  Their estimated CVO was $4 million higher than it would have actually been had the jackpot been won.  Therefore, they actually predicted a $9 million increase in the CVO (estimating sales of about $30 million).

I don't think so. 

Sales for this run were, including the last draw, $257,821,615.  This suggests that the cash value should have been around 86.8 million were the prize won.

This is actually higher than they predicted.

I get my sales figures from Lottoreport.com.  Do you get yours somewhere else?

I still thinking they're sandbagging or engaged in some kind of marketing game.  It will be interesting to see if, as is improbable, the jackpot is actually won this time.    I'll bet that the prize is much higher than advertised.

 

 

 

  I did get my sales figures from lottoreport.com as well, but they incorrectly state that the jackpot winner receives 32.6689% of sales.  That applies only to the first four drawings of the current run, which were still under the old matrix.  For the remaining sales, only 30.28855% goes to the jackpot, under the new matrix.

I didn't know that.  That's very interesting and relevant to understanding the probabilites of rollovers.    Powerball is messing with the players in yet another way.

Thanks.  If I might ask, what was your source on this information?

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ryanm
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Prob988

Thanks. 

This explains my difficulty completely.  I will incorporate this new data in my calculation spreadsheet of rollover probabilities. 

Thanks again.  I appreciate it.

 

 

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