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Which matrix will hit 363+ million?

MM in 5/56+1/46

[ 10 ]

[ 43.5% ]

PB in 5/55+1/42

[ 4 ]

[ 17.4% ]

Both

[ 2 ]

[ 8.7% ]

Neither

[ 7 ]

[ 30.4% ]

Total valid votes

[ 23 ]

Discarded votes

[ 1 ]

Just6ntlc

United States
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June 2, 2005
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Aug 28, 2005, 5:40 pm

I say both MM and PB will eventually reach 363+ million to pass the North American lotto jackpot history. However, I say MM will get there first because PB will have too many small jackpot winners.
ryanm

Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
1,885 Posts
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Aug 28, 2005, 7:23 pm

Yep, Mega Millions will because of California.

Powerball will too because of their back-loaded annuity.
bigdaddy

BETWEEN OAKRIDGE AND WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB
United States
Member #1,647
June 10, 2003
3,387 Posts
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Aug 28, 2005, 7:50 pm

mm i agree i hope i will be the first cali winner!!

Relax,Bigdaddy has your number

turning $30 or less into thousands everyday!!

here we go steelers ..here we go---------stairway to seven

TIME FOR THE LOMBARDI TROPHY TO COME HOME..
JimmySand9

United States
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July 11, 2003
2,645 Posts
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Aug 28, 2005, 9:11 pm

Neither. Powerball has too many lucky streaks, and Mega has too many players.

(insert signature here)
ryanm

Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
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Aug 28, 2005, 10:33 pm

Yeah, but Powerball's lucky streaks have historically ended every time they jacked up the matrix (at least it did for about a year after they jacked it up to 1 in 120 million).

For some weird reason, Mega hasn't had a $300+ million run ever since they jacked up their matrix to 1 in 135 million. That will soon change though with California on board.
dvdiva

United States
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September 17, 2003
2,063 Posts
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Aug 29, 2005, 1:14 am

Well the trick is if the new matrix can survive no one winning both jackpots in the 200-299 range. I think it's possible but very unlikely. The current run needs no winners for the next six drawings to break 300. Just can't see that happening this drawing. Maybe in a year or two.
Just6ntlc

United States
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June 2, 2005
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Aug 30, 2005, 3:36 pm

I say both MM and PB, but I hope that no one wins jackpot in the 200-299 million range. I hope that CA is the only jackpot winner in MM that shatters the North American jackpot record of 363 million.
JAG331

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4,793
May 24, 2004
1,822 Posts
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Sep 2, 2005, 12:43 pm

Both will eventually make it. The odds are great!

I'd rather win MM for $400m than PB...much greater cash value!
ryanm

Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
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Sep 4, 2005, 12:59 am

Powerball's annuity jackpot only jumped $7 million from 9/3 to 9/7!?

Their cash value option jumped only $4 million?

That's weird, because according to http://www.lottoreport.com/salescomparison.htm , the states sold over $14 million worth of Powerball tickets (not including PowerPlay) for the 9/3 drawing, and that's normal for the $53 million level, so the estimated CVO should have increased by more than $4 million.
Prob988

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
963 Posts
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Sep 5, 2005, 12:22 am

Right now, based on a current jackpot of $150,000,000, calculating from historical sales data, I'd estimate the probability of a jackpot that exceeds 300 million is roughly 1 in 4. Whether it is likely to exceed it by 63 million, I don't know. In this estimate I have estimated three rolls, one at 150 million dollars, one at around 180 million dollars and one at 220 million and one at close to 300 million.

Even if the sales were $132,000,000, as they were for the last "great" megamillions jackpot, the $290,000,000 jackpot won in Lowell, MA, the longer odds would mean still a close to 50% probability of a rollover.

It seems that the additional sales in California have been offset by fewer players in other states, because of the longer odds and large jackpot jaded players, thus the old game's sales figures are modeled closely by the new game's figures. Sales have gone up some, but not dramatically.

The odds of the game are now so long that even if 250,000,000 tickets were sold, there would still be a significant chance of a rollover, about 25%. I expect that if the game is played long enough before the US currency collapses, it will have a jackpot close to half a billion dollars at least once.
dvdiva

United States
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September 17, 2003
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Sep 5, 2005, 1:13 am

The odds might have changed since this unpresidented disaster really is an unknown for sales. There might me more rollovers with less sales per rollover.
weshar75

Mcminnville, Oregon
United States
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December 13, 2003
6,173 Posts
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Sep 5, 2005, 2:24 am

The powerball rolls of late have been under 10 million I was hoping for at least the last two rolls would have been higher than 10 million. I guess with the cost of living from day to day going up their is less for the lottery tickets. Maybe the odds going up had some players set against buying lottery until it is the large jackpots that everyone likes to play for. With it taking longer to grow I wonder if that is in the favor of the player or the lottery.
Prob988

New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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Sep 7, 2005, 8:52 am

I'd estimate that the probability of a $300M jackpot in MM, based on a current jackpot of $170 M, is somewhere between 40% to 50% now. There is no history for the current lottery set up - higher odds, declining buying strength, and the presence of California to look at, so it's speculative at best.

The $294M pot won in MA a little while back sold $132.5M tickets. With the new odds, such a sales figure would generate slightly less than a 50% chance of a rollover.
dvdiva

United States
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September 17, 2003
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Sep 7, 2005, 10:19 pm

I'm curious what you think the odds are of it breaking 363 miilion. Long way to go before it hits that one though.
ryanm

Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
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Sep 8, 2005, 12:38 am

If there is no winner in MM, it's only about four draws away from breaking $363 million.

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