Michigan Lottery offers a way to win nearly 100% of the time

May 25, 2017, 4:52 pm (16 comments)

Michigan Lottery

And it appears the lottery is OK with you taking advantage of it

Includes video report

Michigan Lottery players have discovered a way to play the lottery's online games so that they win every time they play — and the lottery seems to be OK with it.

There is evidence some players used a low-risk keno game to turn tens of thousands of dollars in lottery bonus money into free cash.

The 'loophole' centers on a specific game on the Michigan Lottery's online gaming platform.  The online version opened in 2014 and Michigan's Bureau of State Lottery routinely has been giving away up to $100 on bonus money for people to sign-up to gamble on the new site.

The online promotions seem to be working to increase revenues. More than half a million people signed up to play on the web site as it generated $48 million for the state in 2016.

Executives said the bonus money gets more people gambling money on the site, which in turn helps fund schools.

"The lottery offers a variety of promotions for both its traditional and online games to attract new players and retain players," Michigan Lottery spokesman Jeff Holyfield wrote in an e-mail. "Promotions provide a direct benefit to the lottery by supporting incremental growth and increased contributions to the School Aid Fund."

"Any business uses marketing techniques to give folks the opportunity to play as an option," Bureau of Lottery Commissioner Aric Nesbitt said.

How to get bonus bucks

There are clear indications people are taking advantage of any bonus the lottery provides.

Various people on the Internet reported they were able to get "free money." They applauded the lottery for being "pretty good to us."

These players reported that they expected to make a profit of around $62 on any $100 bonus provided by the lottery. Charts were posted showing probabilities of 99 percent all the way up to 100 percent to show how sure they were they could "game" the game.

So here's how it works. The scenario begins as the player deposits $200 into the lottery's website as a first-time player and that player would automatically receive a one-time sign-up bonus of $100 using the "BONUS" code. They would then begin to gamble the $300 on one particular game, Fuzzball Keno. The player then has to play 300 games of Fuzzball Keno with one ball (the same ball) at $1 a game. In this particular game, if the ball is selected during the game, the player receives double the money. If the ball doesn't get selected, the player gets half the bet back. 

When it was introduced, the lottery posted on social media that Fuzzball Keno has the "best odds of any online game." So the "13 Watchdog team" did its own testing of the gamers' "recipe" to see if they could win some money as well.
 
The media channel's investigative team played Fuzzball Keno as prescribed three times. The first time they put their $200 in and got a $100 bonus and they ended up earning $49 (on top of their original deposit of $200) and were able to withdraw the money immediately. The lottery allows players to only withdraw winnings, and in this scenario they played enough to be able to cash out.

The second time, their ball (No. 13) was selected more often and they won a total of $59 on top of the $200 they originally put in.

For their third time, they wanted to bring a guest in. One of the lottery's chief critics over the years, Sen. Rick Jones helped them test the system. In a matter of an hour in his Senate office, he signed up, played Fuzzball Keno 300 times with his lucky number of 17, and won as well.

"I have made $59.50 (on top of the original $200)," Jones said after finishing his required 300 games. He said he would withdraw the money immediately and pay taxes on it. 

"I am going to be asking the lottery bureau if they are losing money with this stuff," Jones said. "It does seem logical people are going to take the money and run. 

"It's shocking it's out there online to be able to game the system."

Jones said he opposed the state's move to bring the lottery online, fearing people would gamble and get in financial trouble. He told us about a senior citizen in his district who gambled all his money away and asked the lawmaker to buy him a cup of coffee because he didn't have enough money.

"I personally am not that thrilled by it and I could see how somebody with an addictive personality would enjoy all the noise," Jones said.

Not just one-time money

A spreadsheet posted on the web showed evidence of dozens of players using various Michigan Lottery promotions to gain free money using Fuzzball Keno. During the last year, the lottery has run several "buy one, get one free" promotions where the player would often get double their money to spend online. That's when people reported they were able to repeatedly use bonuses to rack up free money using the Fuzzball Keno method.

One player said online "I keep my withdrawals under $1000 to avoid drawing attention."

Another player asked others: "The question is do you do more withdrawals in smaller amounts or fewer withdrawals in larger amounts."

Another said: "I don't see situations like this come around much."

The Michigan Lottery provided more than $2 million in promotional money to players on the online platform in 2016.  How much of that money was compromised by this vulnerability is unclear.

100% certainty

The people taking advantage of the bonuses put charts up showing how certain they were they could win.  Using the $1/300 Fuzzball Keno game approach, they had calculated that it was a 99.16% probability they would make a profit. The chart shows a 100 percent probability of profit if the player chose to play the .10 version of the Fuzzball keno game 3,000 times. 

Calvin College statistics professor Thomas Scofield said he believes what's been posted is true and told us the 99 percent and 100 percent figures are accurate.

"The author has rightly calculated that the expected profit for the various strategies the rows represent is $62.50," Scofield wrote in an e-mail.

Do they know? 

Michigan Bureau of State Lottery Commissioner Aric Nesbitt, who has been on the job just three months after taking over for long-time former commissioner Scott Bowen, didn't know people were taking advantage of the bonuses.

"Whether you are using regular money, bonus money or the demo, the ratios are the same," Nesbitt said.

After he was informed of what was happening, Nesbitt acknowledged it was new to him.

"I don't know about this personally," Nesbitt said.  "I am going to have to look at all the facts that are there and take corrective action if anything needs to be done. There should be the same chance as anybody."

One week later

After Commissioner Nesbitt said he would look into the situation, one week later the lottery indicated that the investigation could be closed.

The lottery's spokesperson took issue with the statistics described on the Web, and said it's not true.  No changes are scheduled to be made.

"It is inaccurate to say that playing Fuzzball Keno or any lottery game in a certain manner guarantees gains for players," Michigan Lottery's Jeff Holyfield said. "Like all lottery games, Fuzzball Keno is a game of chance and as with all games of chance, anything is possible. As the blog notes and as we constantly remind players, Lottery games are not designed to serve as investments or provide income. They're games of chance designed to provide fun and entertainment."

Holyfield didn't respond to a question today asking if any changes had been made to the system as this vulnerability is made public in this report. Fuzzball Keno was still active as of late Wednesday afternoon.

VIDEO: Watch the report

WZZM, Lottery Post Staff

Comments

noise-gate

They " OK" with players winning 100% of the time until they find out the winners are on food stamps or collecting disability checks.That's when the worm will turn..

music*'s avatarmusic*

 Thanks, Lottery Post Staff and WZZM.  Very interesting!!Noel

NoCompLotto!

Quite honestly, it's not that great of a game. I've played it before on several different price points and have never went anywhere with it. That being said, this article is 100% true. If you are in Michigan, and have a little time to spare, 1 in 4 odds to double your money or 1 in 1.25 odds to get 50% of your bet back while not risking a cent of your OWN money ain't that bad of a deal. Think about it:

At 300 plays @ $1, you are guaranteed to win back $150.

Assuming it paid out at odds, 75 plays would double your money, and 225 would return 50% of your bet. Your ending total is $275.50 - $75.50 of free money now available to cash out since you have played it through.

Taking advantage of the $100 free sign up is worth it. At the most, you lose $50. At the best, you've earned $100 free money and most likely more.

Personally, I prefer Hit series and Queen of Diamonds - I've had 4 claims on each of those games so far this year (over $600).

amber123

Too bad I have to be a resident of MI to play.

Stack47

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on May 26, 2017

Too bad I have to be a resident of MI to play.

The 100% winning guarantee is misleading and should be "100% guarantee to collect something every drawing".

I tried the demo wagering $20 a drawing for five drawings and collected $140 for a net win of $40, but that included matching the one number three out of the five drawings. Probability of matching the picked number is once every four drawings so at $20 a game wager, players can expect to collect $70 for every $80 they wager.

Wagering $20 for 15 games should collect $280 for a net loss of $20, but because they give a $100 bonus, players get a net win of $80.

MaximumMillions

This sounds a lot like people in Las Vegas playing Video Poker to convert Freeplay/credits to cash.

I'd rather try to net something big with my bonus money, personally.

amber123

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on May 26, 2017

The 100% winning guarantee is misleading and should be "100% guarantee to collect something every drawing".

I tried the demo wagering $20 a drawing for five drawings and collected $140 for a net win of $40, but that included matching the one number three out of the five drawings. Probability of matching the picked number is once every four drawings so at $20 a game wager, players can expect to collect $70 for every $80 they wager.

Wagering $20 for 15 games should collect $280 for a net loss of $20, but because they give a $100 bonus, players get a net win of $80.

I don't trust demos because they can be manipulated to win more often thus drawing you in to use real money.

NoCompLotto!

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on May 26, 2017

I don't trust demos because they can be manipulated to win more often thus drawing you in to use real money.

The Michigan demos actually very closely mirror the real payouts. I've found you can test it in demo mode and if you're on a little bit of a streak, switch to real mode and play the same game. It'll seem as if you hadn't left demo mode... For a while, at least. However, that's how I hit my first claim. Was hitting like crazy in demo mode on Queen of Diamonds, switched to real and got a claim 3 plays in.

Datapile

I've confirmed that this works IRL. Here's the math behind it:

With 200 of your money, plus 100 of theirs, you have 300 in the account. But you can only withdraw winnings.

Any number will average 25% pick (20/80). You win $2 if the number is picked, and $0.50 if it isn't. At this rate, you will pay $1 per game, paying $4 over 4 draws, taking back in $3.50- But that is now $3.50 that you can take out of the account.

After 300 drawings, your balance is down to $262.50, but the amount you can now withdraw is $262.50- This returns you $62.50 on top of your $200.

It takes about an hour if you go at $1, increasing the bet just speeds it up.

 

Draw Hit Return Total Win (Able to withdraw) Balance (Start at 300)
1 0 0.5 0.5 299.5
2 0 0.5 1 299
3 0 0.5 1.5 298.5
4 1 2 3.5 299.5
5 0 0.5 4 299
6 0 0.5 4.5 298.5
7 0 0.5 5 298
8 1 2 7 299
9 0 0.5 7.5 298.5
10 0 0.5 8 298
11 0 0.5 8.5 297.5
12 1 2 10.5 298.5
13 0 0.5 11 298
14 0 0.5 11.5 297.5
15 0 0.5 12 297
16 1 2 14 298
17 0 0.5 14.5 297.5
18 0 0.5 15 297
19 0 0.5 15.5 296.5
20 1 2 17.5 297.5
21 0 0.5 18 297
22 0 0.5 18.5 296.5
23 0 0.5 19 296
24 1 2 21 297
25 0 0.5 21.5 296.5
26 0 0.5 22 296
27 0 0.5 22.5 295.5
28 1 2 24.5 296.5
29 0 0.5 25 296
30 0 0.5 25.5 295.5
31 0 0.5 26 295
32 1 2 28 296
33 0 0.5 28.5 295.5
34 0 0.5 29 295
35 0 0.5 29.5 294.5
36 1 2 31.5 295.5
37 0 0.5 32 295
38 0 0.5 32.5 294.5
39 0 0.5 33 294
40 1 2 35 295
41 0 0.5 35.5 294.5
42 0 0.5 36 294
43 0 0.5 36.5 293.5
44 1 2 38.5 294.5
45 0 0.5 39 294
46 0 0.5 39.5 293.5
47 0 0.5 40 293
48 1 2 42 294
49 0 0.5 42.5 293.5
50 0 0.5 43 293
51 0 0.5 43.5 292.5
52 1 2 45.5 293.5
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56 1 2 49 293
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64 1 2 56 292
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72 1 2 63 291
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76 1 2 66.5 290.5
77 0 0.5 67 290
78 0 0.5 67.5 289.5
79 0 0.5 68 289
80 1 2 70 290
81 0 0.5 70.5 289.5
82 0 0.5 71 289
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84 1 2 73.5 289.5
85 0 0.5 74 289
86 0 0.5 74.5 288.5
87 0 0.5 75 288
88 1 2 77 289
89 0 0.5 77.5 288.5
90 0 0.5 78 288
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92 1 2 80.5 288.5
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96 1 2 84 288
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112 1 2 98 286
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116 1 2 101.5 285.5
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120 1 2 105 285
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124 1 2 108.5 284.5
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136 1 2 119 283
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148 1 2 129.5 281.5
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152 1 2 133 281
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156 1 2 136.5 280.5
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160 1 2 140 280
161 0 0.5 140.5 279.5
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240 1 2 210 270
241 0 0.5 210.5 269.5
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256 1 2 224 268
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264 1 2 231 267
265 0 0.5 231.5 266.5
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268 1 2 234.5 266.5
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270 0 0.5 235.5 265.5
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272 1 2 238 266
273 0 0.5 238.5 265.5
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276 1 2 241.5 265.5
277 0 0.5 242 265
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280 1 2 245 265
281 0 0.5 245.5 264.5
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283 0 0.5 246.5 263.5
284 1 2 248.5 264.5
285 0 0.5 249 264
286 0 0.5 249.5 263.5
287 0 0.5 250 263
288 1 2 252 264
289 0 0.5 252.5 263.5
290 0 0.5 253 263
291 0 0.5 253.5 262.5
292 1 2 255.5 263.5
293 0 0.5 256 263
294 0 0.5 256.5 262.5
295 0 0.5 257 262
296 1 2 259 263
297 0 0.5 259.5 262.5
298 0 0.5 260 262
299 0 0.5 260.5 261.5
300 1 2 262.5 262.5
ressuccess's avatarressuccess

I didn't know that they can win these prizes.

LottoMetro's avatarLottoMetro

The lottery is OK with it because most players at some point will put the money back into their games. Only a handful will take the money out and never play again, which is really the only way to guarantee a profit.

Stack47

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on May 26, 2017

I don't trust demos because they can be manipulated to win more often thus drawing you in to use real money.

It's not about the demos it's about the probability that one number should be drawn once every four drawings. For $200 players are getting $300 and even if a player betting $20 only wins three times, they still have $240 and $40 profit.

amber123

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on May 28, 2017

It's not about the demos it's about the probability that one number should be drawn once every four drawings. For $200 players are getting $300 and even if a player betting $20 only wins three times, they still have $240 and $40 profit.

I get it, but the point is that the demos may shell out more bucks to lure people to play for real, and not payout as much. Reading some of the Internet forums about this MI game, lots of people are saying they didn't profit betting their real money.

I say this because years ago I dabbled with demo games such as online gambling with slots, poker, roulette and other games. Most of those demos make the player win more often than when they use real money.

Datapile

Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on May 28, 2017

I get it, but the point is that the demos may shell out more bucks to lure people to play for real, and not payout as much. Reading some of the Internet forums about this MI game, lots of people are saying they didn't profit betting their real money.

I say this because years ago I dabbled with demo games such as online gambling with slots, poker, roulette and other games. Most of those demos make the player win more often than when they use real money.

I have 2 points here- 1) I shelled out $200, and it worked fine for me. 2) The idea is that you are going to pick 1 number, stay on that number, and after 300 draws, it will average to 25% and you will be able to cash out for $240-260.

Jumping around to a different numbers, or getting bored over an hour, and trying to pick larger number combinations doesn't work.

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